Month: January 2018

15-10-1 on NCAAB in 2017 up 5.25 units

16-10 on NCAAB in 2018 up 15.72

Virginia -8 for 3 units. UVA allows only 53 points a game (that is first in college basketball). That defense will be too much for this surging Georgia Tech team to handle. I usually do not like betting road teams with a big spread, but defense travels well. Georgia Tech has not scored 70 points in a conference game, it won’t happen here. Kyle Guy and Devon Hall will lead UVA to victory.

Michigan -4 for 2 units. Have not lost a bet on Michigan all year (bet them only twice). Michigan will be too much defense for Nebraska like UVA will be for Georgia Tech. Nebraska and Michigan have great records against the spread this year. Michigan knows they have to come out and play better than the first half against Maryland if they want to win. Michigan has covered in their last 4 road games and they are the better team. Not going to overthink this one.

Goes to Gregg Popovich when he was asked about the rise in player to player altercations.

“Oh, you mean those typical NBA fights where they go, ‘Let me at him. I would’ve kicked his ass. Somebody hold me back.’ […] The NBA fights are the silliest things I’ve ever seen in my life. Except there was that one in the stands a few years ago, that one was ugly.”

He is referring to the Malice at the Palace which should/will always be the D-Day of Nba fighting. If you throw a drink at Ron Artest he will look for you and he will find you. Pop’s timeline is a little off as the fight he is referring to happened well over a decade ago, but we will let that slide. Pop also says namby-pamby in the discussion. It is a great day when Popovich says namby-pamby.

 

Ronnie O’ Sullivan for 8 units at -358.

Ronnie is a snooker prodigy who had his first maximum break at the age of 15. He only loses when his mind is not right, or the prize money is not high enough for him. He won the Masters last year and will want to do it again here. Normally I do not bet this high of juice, but he is that good. He has played Fu over 10 times and never lost.

Also, bet him to win the whole tournament at +250 for 1 unit. Best of luck.

24-13-1 up 1.98 units 

West Ham ML for 3 units at -170. West Ham can not play worse than they did last time out vs Shrewsbury when they tied. West Ham will field a stronger squad because they know a Shrewsbury away goal will make it difficult to move on. The Hammers looked good against Huddersfield over the weekend and I expect that to carry over. If Arnautovic or Chicharito plays I would bet over 2.5 goals at +117 for 1 unit as well. 

 

15-10-1 on NCAAB in 2017 up 5.25 units

15-9 on NCAAB in 2018 up 16.77 units

Kentucky -2 for 2 units. This is a sort of Super Bowl for the Gamecock’s in their basketball season. The Wildcats will get South Carolina’s best effort in Columbia. Kentucky is 8-9 against the spread on the year, and I think they get to .500 here. South Carolina is 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 following a game in which they won. I think this young Kentucky team will start coming together. The way they covered in a close game vs Vandy will help them here. Kevin Knox could have a breakout game here, he has not had more than 17 points in conference play.

Toledo +1 for 1 unit. Toledo is just better than Ohio. They have won their last 3 and Ohio has lost their last two. Toledo beat a Central Michigan team by 11 that Ohio lost to by 25. The transitive property usually does not work in sports gambling, but that is a stark point differential. Take the hotter team.

18-16-1 on NBA in 2017 up 7.22 units

14-9 on NBA in 2018 up 3.61 units

Warriors seemed like a sucker bet yesterday. I am a dumb sucker I guess, but it won.

Celtics ML T’Wolves ML parlay for 2 units at +105. Celtics have won 7 in a row and have only lost 5 games all year at home. Anthony Davis is a player many Celtics fans most likely want. Horford and the Lakers pick for him is not the worst trade for either team. Rajon Rondo will play against his old team and he is averaging over 7 assists a game. I just think the Celtics defense will do enough to frustrate the Pelicans. Magic and the Timberwolves are two teams going in different directions. Timberwolves are looking great behind Jimmy Butler’s recent dominance. KAT is pretty good too and is starting to figure out the help defense and switching that he is capable of being great at.

Nuggets -5 for 1 unit. Nuggets offense has been poor recently, but they did play against the Spurs and Grizzlies. They are back home now and I think they are just better than the Mavericks. Both of these teams are about .500 against the spread. Nuggets have only lost 5 games at home all year and I am betting their shots start to fall again in this one. The Mavericks also just lost to a wounded lakers team, so I think the Nuggets can win this one by more than 5.

Nuggets Mavs over 211 for 1 unit. These teams scored 227 in their first meeting of the season in Dallas. Nuggets have gotten a little better at defense since then but, like I said before, I think their shots will start falling here at home. Best of luck.

Goes to Orlando Magic rookie, Jonathan Isaac. Isaac is a man of God and was preaching recently. While preaching he goes on to say, “I invited my teammates right. I invited my teammates. That was the scariest thing I have ever had to do yet. None of them came, but right, I took the step and I invited them. […] I’m the rookie, I am the youngest person on this team […] I typed the message up and I deleted it and I typed it and deleted it.”

I guess when you are 12-31 and on a 7 game losing streak you don’t have much team unity. This lack of team bonding is shown even more by not one player showing up to support Isaac, regardless of their beliefs. I have to think if this was the Warriors that Curry or David West or somebody would show up. The video makes me like Isaac more and makes me not respect any of his teammates. As a fan of the Hornets, I would like to offer Michael Carter Williams and a second round pick for this young guy. Who says no? Doesn’t seem like the Magic want to support him.

 

18-16-1 on NBA in 2017 up 7.22 units

12-8 on NBA in 2018 up 2.22 units

Took a little break from the NBA, but I’m back.

Warriors ML at -200 for 3 units. Cavs and been in a drought and just are not as good the Warriors. Green and Durant will want to continue to get the best of Lebron. The Cavs have one of the worst defenses in the league and it won’t be fixed overnight. Thought this line would be closer to -300 so I am taking what I perceive as value here.

Pistons -3 for 3 units. This Pistons team just poses matchup problems for the Hornets. Howard can’t have his way in the paint with Drummond there. Kemba has not been playing all that well and Avery Bradley is a good defensive counter to Kemba’s offense. Hornets are 5-13 on the road and the Pistons are 13-5 at home. This is a 12:30 game which throws a little wrench into the betting angle, but I still like the Pistons in this spot. Hornets defense is just not what it has been in years past. Michael Carter Williams gets way too many minutes for the Hornets and should not be in the NBA. Batum has not played well this season either. If Tobias Harris shoots a little better than he did last game this will cover.

Knicks +3 for 3 units. Knicks have already beat the Nets twice this year. Nets have been playing better, but Knicks know they have to win these type of games if they want to make the playoffs. The Nets are bad enough on defense to let the Knicks get out of the slump they have been in recently. Porzingis should take over this game with some help from Tim Hardaway Jr. I predict a 5 point victory for the Knicks.

 

 

15-10-1 on NCAAB in 2017 up 5.25 units

15-8 on NCAAB in 2018 up 18.77 units

FSU -3 for 2 units. I like how deep this Florida State team is. This depth will help after a double overtime win against Syracuse in which they covered the spread. Good teams win, great teams cover. Christ Koumadje was dominate in his first game back from an 11 game injury absence for the Seminoles. Boston College will be without Deonte Hawkins who, if healthy, would be the best counter to Christ. Boston College is not as bad as recent years, so FSU’s great record over the last 10 against BC does not really matter. I think FSU has the advantage in the paint and in 3 point shooting so I am taking them here with the low spread.

21-13-1 in soccer down 1.87 units

Real Betis +0 at -185 for 4 units. Betis won their last time out 5-3 against their crosstown rival Sevilla. Real Betis got knocked out of Copa deal Ray by Cadiz, but it may actually be a blessing in disguise as they can now focus on their league games. Leganes on the other hand, just advanced in La Copa against Villarreal. These extra games could hurt Leganes in the league. Atletico Madrid are the only club that plays better defense in La Liga than Leganes. Real Betis on the other hand plays a more open passing style that saw them control the ball for over 70% of the game against Atletico Madrid, but they still lost 1-0. I just can’t see Leganes getting more than 1 goal in this game unless something crazy happens. Leganes has not won in their last 6 on the road.

Real Betis ML at +120 for 1 unit.

Manchester United ML for 2 units at -450. Stoke is playing so poorly they just fired their manager. Manchester United has to win this game if they want any chance at the title being 15 points back. Stoke fade.