15-10-1 on NCAAB in 2017 up 5.25 units
57-47-1 on NCAAB in 2018 up 21.35 units
21-12-1 on NCAA Tournament up 20.77 units
7-3 on big unit plays (3 units or higher).
3-1 on over/unders in the tournament.
History was made by University of Maryland, Baltimore County last night. They were the first 16 seed to ever beat a 1 seed. De’Andre Hunter’s injury may have hurt UVA more than me and others realized, but give all credit to Jarius Lyles and UMBC. Kyle Guy looked like the only guy that put it all on the court for UVA. Xavier, Cincy, UNC, Purdue, and West Virginia all cruised to wins. Jon Elmore has been great all season and got a chance to show off in a win vs Wichita State. Nevada won in overtime after being down double digits. Texas A&M and their big men knocked out Providence. Kansas State and Florida State are both 9 seeds and both won relatively easily. TCU could not figure out Syracuse’s zone. There were no 12-5 upsets in this tournament, but that UMBC win was legendary. Onto the picks.
Villanova – Alabama over 148 for 1 unit. Both these teams scored over 85 points in their first round matchup. Collin Sexton should be able to get buckets again. Villanova averages 87 points on the year and gives up 61. They beat Radford in the first round 87-61. Coach Avery Johnson wishes his Alabama team did not give up 83 points a game… but they do.
Rhode Island +10 for 1 unit. Some Duke fans are happy Oklahoma lost so they do not have to face Trae Young.. I would be careful thinking like that because Rhode Island is a solid Senior laden team. Marvin Bagley III is a beast and could dominate this game, but E.C. Matthews and Rhode Island have proven they can overcome a little adversity. Duke could win this game by double digits, but I am taking the experienced Rhode Island team.
Kentucky -5 for 3 units. Davidson was a tough first round matchup for Kentucky in my opinion and they overcame it. I know Buffalo has a good offense and good guards, but I do not think they will be able to guard Kentucky down low. The Wildcats have been playing like a different team over the past 10 games. I just see Kentucky dominating in the paint on the way to a win. I do not think Buffalo will be able to attack the paint like they did against Arizona. Arizona was by far Buffalo’s best win of the season, which may just mean that that win was more on Arizona’s lack of shooting and defense than Buffalo playing really well… but they did play really well.
Tennessee -5.5 for 2 units. I just do not think Loyola-Chicago has the offense to keep up with Tennessee and their defense. I want to bet the under because of Tennessee’s great defense, but 130 is such a low number it is hard for me to pull the trigger. Tennessee also has a size advantage down low that they could take advantage of and should if their shots are not falling.
Kansas -4.5 for 3 units and Kansas -2 first half for 1 unit. Devonte’ Graham, Devonte’ Graham, Devonte’ Graham and Malik Newman. Kansas was losing to Penn and then Devonte’ Graham started dominating. I still think Kansas is not getting the love they deserve for winning their regular season title and conference tournament. They covered in the first game and I think they will cover here. Seton Hall did play some good teams tough this year like Villanova, but I think Kansas will come out firing after a slow start in their first game.
Ohio State +3.5 for 4 units. I just do not think Gonzaga is all that great this year. I like their offense, but they gave up too many easy buckets against UNCG. UNCG went 3-22 from deep against Gonzaga and they still only lost by 4. Keita Bates-Diop has been playing like one of the best players in the country all year. Gonzaga could get hot and and win this game, but they did not look good in their first round game. I know Ohio State lost to the Zags by 27 this year, but I think this game will be close.
Florida +1.5 for 3 units. I know this is an “away” game of sorts for Florida but that is shown in the line too. This will be a close game, and if one team runs away with it.. I think it will be the Gators. Florida played solid defense with 11 steals against St Bonnies and Texas Tech has not beat a team as good as Florida since they beat West Virginia way back in January.
Michigan Houston over 133 for 2 units. I think Michigan will get to 70 points in this game win or lose. Houston has a good defense only giving up 65 points a game on the season, and Michigan has an even better defense giving up only 62 points a game. These two solid defenses is why the line is “low “. Michigan is the hottest team in the tournament and Houston is going to have to score if they want to move on. Best of luck.