Month: April 2018

31-32-4 in Hockey up 0.73 units

Jets Preds under 5.5 for 1 unit. Pekka Rinne is so damn good. Connor Hellebuyck is coming off back 2 back shutouts for the Jets. I expect a sort of feeling out in this game.

18-18-1 on NBA Playoffs up 8.01 units

Bucks win another game at home. Will Bucks be the first team to win a game away from home in Game 7?

Taking all the unders tonight for 2 units each.

Raptors Wiz under 214.5 Raptors role players not being able to make 3s away from home will keep this under.

Pacers Cavs under 203 Expect an ugly game tonight. Only one game this series has gone over this number.

Jazz Thunder under 207 Westbrook went off last game and the Thunder still only scored 107. Gobert won’t get those same terrible foul calls he got last game and the lane will be more clogged as a result. That 4th foul Gobert got in the 3rd quarter makes me think that ref could have been paid off by the NBA.

Sorry for the quick write up. Busy today.

 

21-20 on MLB up 0.71 units

Busy today so quick write ups.

Tigers Orioles under 10 for 2 units. My number has this game at 8 runs.

Nationals Diamondbacks over 7 for 2 units. Gut feeling. Diamondbacks had 8 runs last game and the Nationals had 15.

Rays team total over 3.5 for 2 units. Pomeranz fade and Rays bats are hot.

Rockies ML at -126 for 3 units. Urena fade.

Athletics ML at +148 for 3 units. Manaea and the A’s are hot.

Yankees ML at -143 for 3 units. The walk off win and Giancarlo playing better is all the momentum the Yankees need with Severino on the mound.

4-3 on tennis down 2.02 units

Stefanos Tsitsipas +3.5 for 4 units. Thiem struggled in the first set of his past two matches to the tune of barely winning a tiebreak. Stefanos is playing a lot better than those opponents Thiem stuggled against. Thiem won 2 sets to 1 (by 4 games) when these two played in March. Stefanos is so young at 19 years old. Another month on tour since the last time these two met will give him the experience he needs to cover this spread and maybe even win the match. Stefanos has looked dominant this week beating #40 Ramos Vinolas and #17 (clay specialist) Diego Schwartzman in straight sets.

Tsitsipas – Thiem over 22 games for 1 unit. I think Thiem loses the first set and then makes a comeback of sorts. Thiem will be ready to play though so I could also see a first set tiebreak win for Thiem and then a 6-4 second set going either way. Last match between these two went over. I think Thiem is the better player, but Stefanos is hotter. I like taking the over in these types of situations.

17-17-1 on NBA Playoffs up 9.05 units

Lebron drilled the game winning 3 to put the Cavs up 3-2. Oladipo and the Pacers were rightfully bummed the Lebron goaltending on the possession before wasn’t called. Lebron did what he had to do though. The Raptors won their game against the Wizards behind Jonas Valanciunas, Delon Wright, and DeRozan. Wizards fell apart in the 4th quarter like they have been doing all season. Beal had a decent game, but it seems he struggles on hesi pull up mid range jumpers.. DeRozan doesn’t struggle with those. Westbrook and Paul George went off. Westbrook probably should have been suspended for coming on the court to confront Gobert in the game before but whatever NBA wants their stars to play. 45-15-12 is simply amazing for Russ. Rockets cruised to a win behind a big 3rd quarter like I thought they would. Up 9 units, but my goal is to be up 20 by the end of the playoffs.

Bucks ML at -200 for 2 units. Home team has won every game. Line is -4 for the Bucks. I don’t think Giannis will lose a win or go home game in Wisconsin. Bucks will move the ball better and make more shots than they did last time out in Boston.

Bucks Celtics over 200 for 2 units. Only one game has gone under this series. The Bucks role players shoot a lot better at home. Bucks shot 27% from deep in the last game, that number should go up a little. Giannis only had 10 shots in the last game, that has to go up for this bet to win.

 

Betting big on the draft tonight. Feel good about these. Being a little undisciplined here, but money.

• #1 overall pick

Sam Darnold at +175 for 1 unit.

Saquon Barkley at +1000 for 1 unit. The thinking here is that Barkley is the best player in the draft according to me and many others. The Browns have the number 4 pick too, so they could draft Barkley and then get whatever QB falls to them at 4. Baker Mayfield is the favorite on this bet, but I just think Sam Darnold has a higher chance of going before Baker.

• Total Running Backs drafted in the first round

Over 1.5 at -250 for 8 units. Barkley will go in the first round. I think Sony Michel and Darrius Guice have a high chance of going in the first round. Guice is at the draft, which makes me think 1 or 2 teams said they would draft him in the first round.

• Calvin Ridley draft postion

Under 19.5 at -120 for 4 units. I think a team like the Titans or Panthers could trade up to get him. Also, the Ravens, Cardinals, and Cowboys could pick him before pick 19. This one seems too easy.

 

31-30-4 in Hockey up 6.73 units

Capitals ML at -123 for 3 units. No Malkin or Hagelin for the Penguins. Look for the Capitals to get some goals on the power play with Hagelin out. Trotz made a mistake not starting Holtby at the beginning of the last series. The Caps are 1-9 against the Penguins in a playoff series. Ovechkin mentioned that the law of averages should work out and they are not discouraged by that stat. I like his line of thinking.

Sharks ML at +127 for 3 units. Sharks made it to the Stanley Cup Finals recently before losing to the Penguins. I think that experience helps them here in what should be a close game. Both of these teams have goalies playing at high levels and both have had a lot of days off after dominating their first round matchups. I think history is made tonight and the Knights get their first playoff loss. Sharks did not win in Vegas this season, but the games were close and the playoffs are a different animal.

18-18 on MLB down 2.28 units

Tilted a little bit last night but it worked. Let’s get back to being a little more disciplined.

Braves ML at -130 for 3 units. Similar starting pitchers here. Homer Bailey has given up more home runs for the Reds than Sean Newcomb has for the Braves. Braves are 7-1 in day games. Reds are 1-10. Newcomb also looked better last time out than Bailey. I just think the Braves are better and I thought this line would be closer to -150 so I am taking the value.

Diamondbacks ML at +106 for 3 units. Matt Koch is a better pitcher than Ben Lively. Both of these pitchers are young. Lively had a “quality” start last time out, but if you look closer, he got out of a few tight spots and still did not get a win. Lively has given up more than 6 hits in every other MLB start. Koch looked good last time out vs the Padres, but the Diamondbacks only got 1 hit in that game. I expect more run support for Koch here.

Indians ML at -108 for 3 units. Similar angle to the Diamondbacks game. I like Mike Clevinger more than James Paxton. The have pitched the same amount of innings and Paxton has given up 3 more homers and 10 more baserunners. Paxton gave up 6 runs last time vs the Indians and is 0-3 vs them in his career.

Rays Orioles over 7.5 at -120 for 3 units. Chris Archer has been hanging his slider this year. Past 4 Tampa Bay games have gone over. Dylan Bundy has a 6.26 ERA vs the Rays in his career. Bundy has been pitching better for the O’s this year and has shown he is their Ace. Tampa’s bats are hot and these Aces arn’t good enough to warrant the low over/under number of 7.5.

Brewers ML at +142 for 2 units. Coin flip game here. Brewers are on an 8 game winning streak. Chase Anderson and Kyle Hendricks have been eerily similar this season, but Anderson has been a little bit better by my estimation. Cubs are up 3-1 on the season series. I think that number comes down towards the mean because the Cubs haven’t shown me they are that much better than the Brew Crew this season.

 

30-30-4 in Hockey up 5.53 units

Bruins ML at -167 for 2 units. Bruins can’t lose to the Leafs 3 games in a row right? The only thing that is stopping me from making this a stronger play is the tragic Toronto van attack. The Leafs could rally behind this tragedy, kinda like the Bruins did in 2013 after their marathon tragedy. The Bruins front line will play a lot better than they have the last few games. The better team usually wins in a 7 game series, I think the Bruins are the better team.

14-16-1 on NBA Playoffs up 7.37 units

Won my big unit play again but neither over hit. Life is too short to bet the under. Thank you Meek Mill for making that 76ers bet the easiest bet since Mayweather.

Gilbert Arenas hates this Bucks Celtics series. Bucks role players just can’t make 3s away from home. Giannis was quiet in Game 5 and will need to takeover in Game 6 if the Bucks want to survive. 76ers won the game and the series behind a big 3rd quarter. The Heat just did not have the rebounding or 3-point shooting to compete with the 76ers. Warriors didn’t look good, but they won the series against the Spurs. Draymond had 17 points and 19 rebounds in the deciding Game 5.

Raptors ML at -320 for 3 units. Raptors were up by 14 in the 3rd quarter of their last loss. I do not think they will let a win slip away at home. Dwayne Casey please let somebody besides Lowry guard John Wall. Ibaka and Delon Wright will have more confidence and play better at home. DeRozan knows he made some mistakes at the end of the last game and should be able to correct them.

Pacers +6 for 1 unit. Pacers have not lost by more than 4 all series. Oladipo has to play better than he did last game. Cavs are 1-3 against the spread this series. I just like this Pacers team. The Pacers have 4 players I would want on my playoff team (Oladipo, Bojan, Myles Turner, and Darren Collison). The Cavs only have 3 players I would want on my playoff team (Lebron, Kevin Love, and Korver). Kevin Love is banged up too. Lebron is still Lebron, but these games have been close and I expect that to continue.

Rockets -12 for 2 units. Rockets won the last game by 19. Timberwolves can’t guard the Rockets and their 3-point shooting. Chris Paul and James Harden seemed to have turned it around after a poor end to the regular season. Poor compared to what they did all season. I could see the Timberwolves getting down big in this one and “giving up”. Rockets missed shots for the first 3 games of this series, but they have turned it around now. Look for the Rockets to end the series in Houston tonight.

Jazz +4 for 2 units. I have been betting the Thunder and the overs in this series. I am going to quit doing that now, so the Thunder will most likely blow out the Jazz out tonight. Thunder have not been playing defense and the iso ball hasn’t worked except for Game 1. Westbrook and Melo have been bad this series. I expect the Jazz defense and their better coaching to prevail tonight.