Tennis October 10th

55-28-3 on tennis up 19.59 units

Nikoloz Basilashvili at +215 for 1 unit. Nikoloz has not lost a set in his past 5 matches that included wins against Del Potro and Kyle Edmund among others. Alexander Zverev should still be the favorite, but not this heavy of one. Zverev has lost in his past 4 tournaments to underdogs like this. The German got a bye in the first round so he could come out a little flat. The Georgian #1 has a solid chance in this one.

Stefanos Tsitsipas at +119 for 3 units. Stefanos made it to the quarterfinals at Tokyo last week, which is a career best result for the 20-year-old Greek in Asia. Tsitsipas won 3 matches in his debut here last season. Karen Khachanov lost to Stefanos in qualifications last season at this Shanghai tournament. That is the only other meeting between these two up and comers. Tsitsipas has been in better form all year, has done well in his only other Shanghai appearance, and has the H2H result.

Kevin Anderson at -260 for 2 units. Anderson goes up against Mikhail Kukushkin here. Anderson leads the H2H 3-1, winning the past 3 matchups. Mikhail has won a set in all of those loses though. Anderson is having the best season of his career in 2018 with 43 wins. Just think the gap in talent is too much for the Kazakh #1 here, even though Anderson looked a little shaky in Tokyo last week. Anderson’s serve is too strong and he will get enough “easy” points to move on in this one.

MLB Playoffs October 9th

74-75 on MLB up 2.13 units

Been winning on these playoffs after a rocky end to the regular season for me. The Astros were just easy money. Did the MLB not want anybody to watch that series? Why were the games at like 1PM Friday, Saturday, and Monday?

Red Sox at +127 for 3 units. Brock Holt hit for the first ever postseason cycle last game and Severino hardly warmed up for his start. CC Sabathia gets the start for the Yankees in this one against Porcello. Why are these division series not 7 games? Can we knock 10 games off the regular season and have longer playoffs please MLB? Mookie Betts has a 1.050 OPS in 35 plate appearances against CC, but the rest of the Red Sox are not all that great against him. I just think Boston’s bats are on fire right now and they can overcome a poor history against CC. Aaron Hicks is back in the lineup for the Yankees and Brock Holt is out of the lineup for the Red Sox in this one. Angel Hernandez will be the home-plate umpire tonight after getting not 1, not 2, but 3 calls overturned at first base last night. He is awful, so that will add some “fun” for both teams tonight. Aaron Boone could have done a lot better with his pitching decisions in Game 3, but I don’t expect that to change overnight. Red Sox get their first series clinching win in the new Yankee Stadium tonight and their first since 2004 at the Yankees.

 

Hockey October 9th

12-9-7 on Hockey this season up 4.26 units

Going to start betting NHL today. I like what I have seen from some teams in the first few games of the season. I usually wait a few more games before I bet, but there is some value tonight.

Hurricanes at -195 for 3 units. Canucks allow 4.5 goals a game and now face the leaders of the Eastern Conference so far in this young season. Both of these teams dominated on their home ice when they met last season. The second overall pick in the NHL draft, Andrei Svechnikov became the first player in NHL history born after the year 2000 to score a goal. The Hurricanes have some exciting young players besides Andrei, like Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho, Lucas Wallmark, and Martin Necas. Canucks have not been able to kill the penalty this season and I expect the Hurricanes to take advantage of that tonight.

Avalanche at +140 for 3 units. Matt Calvert returns to Columbus tonight. Calvert scored the winning goal in the first ever Blue Jackets playoff win against Pittsburgh. Alan Cole helped the Blue Jackets push into the playoffs last season, but he now also plays for Colorado. Colorado is top 5 in goals for and goals allowed this season, while Columbus is outside of the top 10 in both of those important categories. Colorado has a better power play and penalty kill. Colorado is just better so I will gladly take them at plus money.

NFL Week 5 Recap

Michael Thomas got into it on twitter with Josh Norman last night. Norman said “he wouldn’t waste his breath […] He is not worthy of it. He will never be worthy of it.” Norman tweeted that Thomas was “clout chasing” in since deleted tweets. This made Thomas go off more than I have ever seen him go off.

He tweeted things like “Zone Corner, play your role. Lol you don’t even have no clout to chase. I didn’t have to do nothing but punk you all day and watch you bust coverages all game and cost your team so who really a clown. And im going to bully you every time i see you just so you know”

“You corny for deleting your tweets @J_No24 we grown man walk it like you talk it. Goof ball con artist”

And my personal favorite “You my son, go to bed son. I was punking you all night give me a break. @ your coach so he can put your so called tough guy self in timeout again 😭😭

It seems the Saints won on the football field and on twitter. Brees broke the all-time passing record that Peyton Manning had for about 1000 days. Peyton congratulated Drew in a very Peyton way. Pretty funny. The Saints won the game 43-19 and are leading the NFC South. Mark Ingram came back from his suspension with two touchdowns to give Alvin Kamara a much needed break. Saints play at the Ravens, at the Vikings, and then at home vs the Rams. Those 3 games will go a long way in telling us if this New Orleans team can win a super bowl this season.

Redskins are still leading their division too and 2-2. Washington has the 4th fewest points against in the league. If their defense can prove this game was an outlier, they could very well win their division. Adrian Peterson’s injuries were not too serious and they have some talent on offense. I would not bet against the Redskins winning the division.

The Bills beat the Titans in a game that saw one touchdown and 6 field goals. Shady McCoy broke out of his slump and led Buffalo in rushing and receiving yards with 108 total yards on the day. Josh Allen did not do too much through the air, but got a rushing touchdown and his team the victory. Mariota’s box score looks bad, but he actually played well. His offensive line and wideouts did nothing to help him. Henry ran the ball well, but something is off with this Tennessee offense and I think it starts with the offensive line. LT Taylor Lewan got hurt in this game and did not return. His absence could really hurt the Tennessee offense going forward.

The Jets steamrolled the Broncos. Denver just couldn’t get over last week’s close loss to the Chiefs coupled with the long travel east on a short week. New York had 323 yards rushing with Crowell getting 219 of those yards. Keenum threw a touchdown pass on the Broncos second possession to go up 7-0, but it was all downhill from there. I can’t figure out why Vance Joseph and the Broncos do not run the ball more. The only ran the ball 17 times in this one, but both of their running backs averaged over 5 yards a carry (and have averaged this all season). Denver’s Bradley Roby played horrible and was not at the team facility Monday. Broncos need to turn it around quickly if they want to save Joseph’s job and make the playoffs… too bad they play the Rams this week.

The Rams beat the Seahawks 33-31 behind Gurley’s 3 touchdowns. LA’s corners got burnt in this game. Russell Wilson had a solid game, but it looked to me more of a problem with the Rams than anything special Seattle did. Earl Thomas was missed. Seattle’s strategy seems to be to run the ball a lot to keep the opposing team’s offense off the field. It worked well in this game, just wasn’t quite enough. Cooks and Cooper both left the game early, but LA’s offense was still fun to watch. This Rams team is good, but they have a fairly easy schedule.. I just don’t see them winning the Super Bowl just yet, even though they are the favorites in Vegas. Their lack of outside pass rush and lockdown corners worries me come playoff time.

The other 33-31 scoreline of the day featured the Panthers beating the Giants behind Gano’s career-long 63 yard field goal. Eli seemed to force the ball to Odell a lot, which I like more than not throwing to him for long stretches of a game. Carolina still leads the NFL in rushing yards per game at 154 yards and that was the difference in this one (besides the refs). Giants only had 50 yards rushing. Barkley is silly good. I think he will be the best running back in the league very soon. Step aside, Gurley, Bell, and Kamara. The Panthers seem to give up outside runs a little too easily, but that will most likely change with Thomas Davis coming back from his suspension. Panthers need to get more pressure on the QB if they want to make another Super Bowl run. Thomas Davis, Curtis Samuel, and Greg Olsen all playing will help them. D.J. Moore is freaky athletic, expect to see him a lot more over the second half of the season. Eric Reid took a knee during the anthem, but he looked solid on the field and will only get better once he keeps building chemistry in this secondary.

The Bengals were down 17-3 to the Dolphins after 3 quarters, but ended up winning 27-17. Cincy got a fumble return touchdown and an interception return touchdown in the 4th quarter. A.J. Green passed Chad “Ochocinco” Johnson for most 100 yard games in team history with 32. Vontaze Burfict returned for the Bengals and was second on the team in tackles. Adam Gase could prolly be better at his job, it is tough calling plays without Peyton Manning making you look good. Joe Mixon is a beast, but staying on the field is his biggest problem. Tyler Boyd is solid as well. This Bengals offense reminds me of 2015 when they had Sanu, Green, and Marvin Jones. Andy Dalton will be a top 10 fantasy QB by season’s end. Will the Bengals hold on to win the division?

The Steelers and Antonio Brown beat the Falcons 41-17. Atlanta just doesn’t have a defense due to all the injuries. James Connor went off. Pittsburgh dominated the line of scrimmage and doubled Julio Jones all day. Ito Smith might be the best running back on the Falcons. It seems everytime he touches the ball he gets 8 yards. If the Steelers play like this every week, they will make the playoffs.

The Chiefs beat the Jags, even though Jacksonville was talking a bunch of junk midweek. Mahomes was a foot or two off on some big plays to Tyreek Hill. Chiefs might have the best offensive line in football. Bortles looked atrocious. T.J. Yeldon looked solid and seems to be a capable #1 as long as Fournette is still made of Legos. Kansas City plays the Patriots next week. Ramsey said “I won the majority of matchups today, put it that way.” Your team just lost holmes, be a little more humble.

The Lions beat the Packers 31-23. Mason Crosby missed 5 kicks in the game (4 field goals and one XP). Kenny Golladay is the real deal. I always look at players that get touchdowns seemingly every time they touch the ball as rookies to have high ceilings. Odell, Barkley, David Johnson, and Tarik Cohen remind me of Golladay’s rookie season last year in that way. Davante Adams is one of the best wideouts in the league as far as I am concerned. Slay didn’t stand a chance. Aaron Jones and Kerryon Johnson should get more touches as the season progresses.

The Browns got another win!! Hue Jackson is not a good coach though. This game featured 5 field goals and one touchdown. Njoku and Baker Mayfield are damn good. Denzel Ward shut down John Brown (5 catches on 14 targets). Jarvis Landry gets a lot of targets from Baker and I expect him to start catching more of them. Cleveland seems to have one of the best defenses in the league. Browns lead the league in takeaways with 15, they had 13 all of last season. Cleveland needs to clean up their penalties, they had 10 more in this game. The Ravens have a solid defense too, but they need to beat the Titans next week if they want to win this division.

The Chargers beat the Raiders handily. Derek Carr looked awful. Jared Cook is big. Phil Rivers looks great this season. Cardinals got their first win of the season against the 49ers. Mike McCoy sucks at calling plays. If McCoy would play David Johnson in the slot one time this season I would venmo him $10. Chandler Jones was dominant. CJ Bethard is a backup NFL QB at best. 49ers lost Breida and starting center Weston Richburg in this one – not good.

The Vikings gave the Eagles their first home loss of the season. Minnesota still struggled to run the ball, but Philly does have a solid run defense. Thielen and Diggs are great and should be started by all their fantasy owners every week. Minnesota’s defense looked a lot better this week than they have all season. The Eagles seem to be stuck in their hangover, luckily they play in a weak division. Should Foles or Wentz start? Eagles have to beat the Giants on Thursday because their schedule gets tough after that (Panthers and then at Jacksonville).

If you like bad offenses, the Texans and Cowboys tickled your fancy. I am tired of the Cowboys being in primetime games. Cowboys suck at calling plays and scheme. Texans suck in the redzone. I don’t think either of these teams will make the playoffs, but if I had to pick one, it would be the Texans. Hopkins, Fuller, and Keke are all explosive, but O’Brien does not seem to be helping them out with the play calls. How 5 drives stall inside the 30 yard line is beyond me.

20-20-3 on NFL down 2.07 units

Still have these season bets pending:

Panthers over 8.5 wins for 8 units.

Patriots win AFC at +200 for 3 units.

Panthers win NFC at +2100 for 2 units.

Saints win NFC at +575 for 2 units.

Going to make some division winner bets today.

Panthers at +200 for 2 units. Panthers are getting healthy and they have an easier schedule than the Saints. This division is a coin-flip between the Saints and the Panthers for me. I will take a 50/50 chance at +200 all day. Saints have lost at home to the Buccaneers, while the Panthers have lost at the Falcons. Panthers play @Redskins, @Eagles, Ravens, @Steelers, @Lions, Seahawks, @Browns, and then all division games. Saints have a slightly tougher schedule @Ravens, @Vikings, Rams, @Bengals, Eagles, @Cowboys, Steelers, and then their division games.

Jaguars at -125 for 4 units. Colts, Texans, and Titans don’t scare me. Jacksonville should win their next two games against the Cowboys and Texans and these odds will get worse. The hardest game on the rest of their schedule is the Steelers at home. This one seems a little too easy.