81-79 on MLB up 13.88 units
11-4 on MLB Playoffs up 23.53 units
Brewers at +102 for 3 units. Jhoulys Chacin hasn’t allowed a run in 10 and a third in these playoffs. Jeffress, Knebel, and Hader will all be available out of the bullpen for the Brew Crew. Walker Buehler has allowed 9 runs in 12 innings this postseason. He was flawless at the end of the regular season, but he has slipped off of that form. Kershaw could pitch in this one if LA needs him. Brewers being at home helps. Every game the Brewers have lost has been close in this series. I just think they are the better team. Milwaukee’s bats woke up yesterday, that will continue.
18-16-1 on NBA in 2017 up 7.22 units
61-53-2 on NBA in 2018 up 9.28 units
4-4 on NBA this season down 2.48 units
Raptors -2 for 2 units. Kawhi and the Raptors have been playing some good basketball to start the season. They have a good bench which makes me worry less about the second night of a back 2 back being on the road. Serge Ibaka and Fren VanVleet have been aggressive to start the year. Kyle Lowry always gets up in games against John Wall.
Hornets +4 for 3 units. Kemba has been sizzling this season. Coach James Borrego has Charlotte looking a lot better than they did last season.
Suns +10 for 2 units. Devin Booker has been silky shooting this season. Ariza and Anderson add some nice veteran experience. The Suns beat the Mavs by 21. The Suns are going to be better than a lot of people think.
Rockets at -155 for 3 units. Lakers don’t have 3-point shooters and Houston does. It is that simple.
24-22 on college football down 7.03 units
Michigan -7 for 3 units. Huge rivalry game here. Michigan State has won 8 of the past 10. Michigan is far more talented this season. The Spartans are strong on the defensive front, but that is about it. The Spartans don’t have the run game they have had in past years that helps them control these types of games.
Auburn at -175 for 4 units. Ole Miss allows over 520 yards per game in the SEC. Tigers will take care of the ball and win this week, unlike last week.
LSU -6 for 5 units. Night game in Death Valley. LSU and Clemson should have to rock paper scissors for the right to call their stadium Death Valley. I would love to see a Dabo-Coach O rock paper scissor battle. Mississippi State has a great defense and QB. Both Qbs can make plays with their legs. LSU lost this game 37-7 last year. Revenge game. LSU is wearing purple helmets. LSU has a +9 turnover margin on the year, and if they make Fitzgerald throw the ball, this number will go up.
39-29-5 on Soccer since World Cup up 18.42 units
I never bet on the international break in October, but I love betting on this first weekend back. Frankfurt won me both my bets yesterday. The 20-year-old Luka Jovic scored 5 goals and was being just plain mean to Dusselfdorf.
Tottenham at -120 for 2 units. Harry Kane.
Liverpool at -320 for 3 units. Klopp beat his former assistant David Wagner 3-0 both times last season. Liverpool has one of the top attacks in the world, but their keeper Allison has conceded the fewest goals at this point in the season since 1962 for Liverpool. Huddersfield have won one of their last 18 top flight games.
Atletico Madrid at +119 for 2 units. Villarreal struggles in the second half of their matches. They have been tied at halftime and lost in 4 of their 8 La Liga games this season. They lost their last two La Liga games to a lot worse competition than Atletico.
Dortmund at -118 for 1 unit. Dortmund has a lot of injury issues, but they were the hottest team in Europe before the break. Going to bet on that form carrying over here.
Juventus at -550 for 4 units. Ronaldo did not get to play for Portugal so he will be ready to go. He will want to play well since his personal life has left some people thinking less of him. Juve have 9 clean sheets in their last 14 games at home. Genoa don’t have the class to keep up with the unbeaten Italian leaders.
66-35-4 on tennis up 15.94 units
Fabio Fognini at +138 for 2 units. Stefanos Tsitsipas is enjoying the best season of his young life; however, so is the Italian #1. Fognini is still going for an Italian record in 4 ATP World Tour Titles in a season. That should be enough motivation for him. Fognini’s ankle is a worry, but this value is too good to pass up. Stefanos is more atheltic than most players on tour, but not Fognini. Fabio has only lost to Del Potro this month. Tsitsipas struggles against players with good serves (lost to Kevin Anderson in straight sets last tournament). Fognini’s serve will be enough here. The Italian had 7 aces in the first set before Chung retired yesterday. These are two of my favorite players. Should be a good one.
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman at +120 for 2 units. Schwartzman has made it to the finals here the past two years and will look to do it again today. Gael Monfils has not made a final since 2016. Diego beat Gael in straight sets earlier this year, but lost to him 3 years ago. Obviously I put more weight in the matchup that was this year. Monfils is the better player on this surface, but I can’t pass up on this value as Diego loves Antwerp. He has won 9 out of 12 matches here in his career.
John Isner at -204 for 1 unit. I thought this line would be around -270 so I will take the perceived value. Ernests Gulbis is tied in the H2H with Isner 3-3, but Isner has won 3 of the past 4. Gulbis struggled against Jack Sock and only had a 56 first serve percentage. That won’t get it done against Isner.
Andreas Seppi at -132 for 3 units. Both players are capable of winning this match and are fairly even. I like Seppi because he has won the past two matches between these two on this surface in straight sets. Adrian Mannarino will be happy making it this far as he lost 6 matches in a row recently. Mannarino last beat Seppi on a hardcourt a decade ago. Mannarino has a much easier path to this semifinal. Adrian has not beat a player of Seppi’s caliber in a while.