Month: May 2019

Basketball

Nuggets at Blazers Prediction

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4-0 on the NBA playoffs up 9.26 units

Blazers at -150 for 4.5 units. The sequel to the quadruple-overtime game happens tonight some 40 hours after the last game finished. Will Barton stepped up big for Denver in 3 of the overtimes and the 4th Quarter. Him gaining some confidence gives the Nuggets an extra piece to play. Rodney Hood stepped up a little more than Barton did though. Hood took advantage of Jamal Murray in the post a few times and then Denver adjusted, which forced Hood to shoot some 3s. He was 2/3 from deep. Hood sat on the bench for almost an hour of realtime, but when he was called on he delivered.

Jokic has to be a little tired after playing 65 minutes in Game 3. The Joker’s 65 minutes were the most minutes ever played by a 7-footer in a playoff game. McCollum matched his career playoff high with 41 points, while playing a franchise playoff-record 60 minutes. Jamal Murray’s inability to guard bigger guys in the post, and smaller guys on the perimeter is a problem. C.J. and Damian are too quick for him, but Rodney Hood and others are too big for him. When Murray is on the court, Denver’s defense is worse. When Murray is off the court, Denver’s offense is worse. Quite the conundrum. Gary Harris plays great defense, but he hasn’t been able to shoot. Denver seems to lack two way players. Mason Plumlee and Monte Morris have not been playing well this postseason. They were solid in the regular season, but their decline has been noticed as the competition has ramped up. Plumlee has the second worse DRTG for Denver in the playoffs. Portland’s role players outplay Denver’s and Portland shoots better from deep for the 3-1 series lead.

 

Tennis

Estoril Open Semi and a Little Madrid Action

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91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

37-33 on tennis in 2019 down 32.48 units

Short write up because I was up late watching the Blazers/Nuggets 4 overtime game..

Tsitsipas at -178 for 8 units. Goffin isn’t expected to be here, Tsitsipas is. Goffin’s return game has been on point this tournament. Goffin has won the only other meeting between these two on clay. Goffin’s inability to serve consistently will be his downfall in this match. He makes matches too hard for himself in my eyes.

Opelka at -338 for 2 units. Messi has scored 17 Champions League goals and 12 Freekicks since Mischa Zverev last won a match on clay. That stat is completely made up, but prolly true.

Baseball

MLB May 3rd

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92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

2-2 on MLB this season down 0.15 units 

Tigers/Brewers Parlay risking 2 units to win 4.01 units. The Mets can’t hit and Christian Yelich can. When Jesse Winker waves you off in a May baseball game. You really can’t hit.

I love Matthew Boyd for the Tigers, and so do the numbers. Boyd has 48 strikeouts and has only given up two homers in 37.1 innings this season. Detroit’s bats have to heat up sometime and why not against Jorge Lopez, who has given up at least 4 earned runs in his last 3 starts. Detroit only has 21 homers on the season. They have played 28 games. Both of those numbers will go up today.

Basketball

Nuggets at Blazers Prediction

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3-0 on NBA playoffs up 6.48 units

Waving Damian Lillard GIF by ESPN

Blazers at -180 for 5 units. Damian Lillard’s first game back in Portland since one of the best playoff shots of the millennium. Denver shot about 20% from 3 and about 60% from the foul line in their Game 2 loss at home.. now they go on the road. Portland adjusted their defense after Game 1 and it seemed to work. Damian did not play that well in Game 2. He will tonight. Enes “rhymes with Penis” Kanter and Rodney Hood stepped up in Game 2. C.J. McCollum hit a late 3 when the Nuggets pulled within 7 to push the lead back to double digits, which sealed the game.

The Nuggets had 14 4th-Quarter offensive rebounds.. but it wasn’t enough to get the win in Game 2. The Blazers got a little complacent on the boards when they were up big. I like that as a Portland backer tonight because they now know they can’t let up. Also, Jamal Murray will be playing with a thigh injury and he is not 100%. He was struggling a little bit in the 4th Quarter of Game 2. If the Blazers contain Jokic like they did in Game 2 they will win.. but even if they don’t, they can still win behind great shooting games from Damian or C.J. or both.

Tennis

ATP Estoril Quarterfinals Preview – Will Frances Tiafoe Have Enough Gas in the Tank to Win Again?

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91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

37-32 on tennis in 2019 down 29.48 units

Have one pending parlay that needs Tsitsipas and Monfils to win today. Tsitsipas has gone from a heavy favorite when I put the parlay in (-645) to a “why would you even put him a parlay” (-881)? The odds on Monfils have stayed the same. Gael’s opponent, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, is in great form for an 18-year-old and has a bright future; however, I think Monfils ability to hit winners will win him the match.

Frances Tiafoe at +129 for 3 units. Tiafoe was down a set and a break to Yoshihito before he clawed all the way back to win a 3rd set tiebreak. It was an amazing match to watch. It felt like both players were broken 10 times in that tiebreak. Many people are saying Frances will be gassed.. I tend to disagree. Obviously he will be more winded than he was yesterday morning but he is young. The American has played only 2 matches over the past 5 days. This is the same Tiafoe that played 16 sets at the Australian Open this year before losing to Nadal in the Quarters. He has endurance.

Pablo Cuevas, Tiafoe’s opponent, has played 4 matches over the past 5 days and has never made it to a major quarterfinal. His endurance can be questioned. Cuevas did win a challenger in Tunisia recently, but his toughest match was against Joao Domingues. Stefanos Tsitsipas is a -881 favorite over Domingues today. The American lost in the Finals here last year. He enjoys playing here. Tiafoe will win enough baseline rallies and take advantage of his 2nd return points to win another match. A Monfils/Tiafoe Semi would be fun to watch.. The Tennis gods and Lil B the based god will be good to me.

Tennis

ATP Estoril and Munich Continue – Monfils, Tsitsipas, and Tiafoe

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91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

36-32 on tennis in 2019 down 33.53 units

Frances Tiafoe at -148 for 6 units. Yoshihito Nishioka just won his first clay court match since April 2018. Nishioka beat the young American Mackenzie McDonald in straight sets. Frances Tiafoe is a weird American in the sense that he seems to like playing on clay courts. Tiafoe beat Mikhail Kukushkin in straight sets. Tiafoe forced 11 break points and saved 5 of his 6 break points. Tiafoe has played well this season and I expect him to keep on his upward trajectory. Nishioka has a strong serve, but Tiafoe should be able to handle it on clay. Tiafoe is confident and will hit enough winners to beat Japanese 23-year-old.

Gael Monfils/Stefanos Tsitsipas/Roberto Bautista-Agut parlay risking 3 units to win 3.24 units. Rudolf Molleker is 18 and coming off of his 3rd tour-level main draw win of his career. Bautista-Agut should be able use his experience and solid form to get the win (beat Djokovic). The Spaniard has made the QFs every time he has played in Munich. Nadal beat Bautista-Agut on clay this year, but Rudolf is not Nadal.. in case you were confused. Monfils and Tsitsipas are on a crash course to meet in the final I believe.

Soccer

Messi Made Another One, Even Klopp Smiled

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Messi is so damn good. I’ll miss him more than any other athlete when he retires. Liverpool’s wall. Trump’s wall. Messi don’t care. He is scoring over/around it. Barcelona win the first leg at home 3-0. Ajax may be the only team that can stop Barcelona and Messi. Yes. Ajax. Barca will take at least 2 of Ajax’s players this off-season..

 

Baseball

May 1st MLB

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92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

1-2 on MLB this season down 4.50 units 

Phillies -1.5 at -115 for 5 units. Don’t normally like taking home team run lines unless I am super confident. Aaron Nola has had an ERA under 3 in his last 2 starts for Philadelphia. Daniel Norris allowed 10 hits and 4 runs in his last outing against the White Sox. Both pitchers have a 1.58 WHIP, but Nola has looked better recently. Norris allows too many baserunners and the Phillies get some key hits that they couldn’t get yesterday.