MLB May 31st

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

7-6-1 on MLB this season up 6.21 units

I am on my 3rd New Belgium Voodoo Ranger as of writing this, but I punched my plays in before I started drinking. So you’re still in sober, safe hands.. sorta. The Rays just keep winning. The Yankees just keep getting rained out. The Twitter world wants longer nets for more coverage from foul balls. The Facebook world wants people to not pay for nice tickets and take their kids into the danger zone. Quite the raging debate. Seems like extended nets are a simple solution, but asking baseball to change is like asking Draymond Green not to talk junk.

Brewers at -116 for 4 units. Chachin has allowed a lot of baserunners, but Archer has allowed even more when divided by innings pitched and averaged out math blah blah. Yelich has 21 homers already.. 21! Brewers hit 4 homers yesterday without Yelich. Two starting pitchers that have been underperforming, but I like the Brewers today.

Cardinals at -124 for 4 units. Yu Darvish has struggled with control all season. Today he faces the strong St. Louis lineup. Kris Bryant will get cussed at today. Miles Mikolas had 9 Ks and no walks in his last outing for St. Louis. Darvish and Mikolas have similar season stats, but Mikolas has the upper hand lately.

Rays at -119 for 3 units. Rays are hot.

MLB May 30th

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

6-6 on MLB this season up 4.08 units 

Rays at -141 for 3 units. Rays have won 5 in a row.

Yankees at +135 for 3 units. Yankees are hot and already hit Sale well this season.

NBA Finals Game 1

4-3 on the NBA playoffs down 3.24 units

Largest Lead under 16.5 points for 3 units at -110.

The Raptors have made their first NBA Finals, which means my Hornets are the only Eastern conference team left to not make The Finals. I think this will be a close game. Kevin Durant dominated in the regular season game that went into overtime, but obviously he is still hurt. Draymond has assisted on over 25% of the Warriors made field goals. He has stepped up in KD’s absence. I think if the Warriors get down by double digits, they will turn it on.. and I think the Raptors will keep it close either way. I don’t see a blowout happening. Raptors are a lot better at home than on the road in these playoffs.. and the Warriors are the Warriors.

 

Blazers Forget to Show Up

Hand up. I had Blazers +8. I am so confused by Portland’s lack of effort. Kanter, McCollum, and Damian played poorly. Even if you’re not shooting well, you have to step up on defense, like Klay Thompson does time and time again. Damian needs to stick like glue to Curry in transition. Damian would sag into THE PAINT on defense in transition against the best shooter of all-time. I’d rather him foul out with 6 landing zone fouls than what he did tonight. Also, Kanter and Collins would be in THE PAINT when Green would set a screen for Curry. Damian or C.J. would get screened and the big man was nowhere to be found. That is not how you guard Steph Curry. Curry was 9-15 from 3 because of Portland’s terrible defensive effort and gameplan.

I don’t care that Portland shot 25% from deep. I don’t care that every Portland starter, except for Aminu, had a negative assist/turnover ratio. I don’t even care that Portland had 17 more turnovers than they did in their last game. 17! I care that Portland had a chance to steal a game against a KD-less Warriors team and they seemed to not even try on defense. I don’t know if it was poor coaching or a Game 7 hangover, but they are going to get swept (again) if they don’t change. Warriors win 116-94 and take a 1-0 series lead. Golden State is 2.5-0 since KD got injured.

MLB May 14th

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

5-5 on MLB this season up 4.24 units 

Posting late. Keeping it short.

Royals at -138 for 3 units. Shelby Miller has given up 53 baserunners in 27 innings pitched this season. Fading him and the Rangers tonight.

Giants at -125 for 3 units. Trent Thornton is 0-4 this season. He is starting for the Blue Jays against SF tonight.

Sean’s Playoff Hockey and Basketball Predictions – May 14th

Writer: Sean Sloan

Sean’s record 1-1 down 0.29 units

The Stanley Cup Playoffs are proving to be as random as advertised. I want to think Carolina will win tonight. They have shown persistence in this postseason already, having been down 2-0 in the Washington series. I am not going to count them out, but I also am not entirely confident in this team getting it done tonight. I am feeling the under tonight, but more specifically Boston under 2.5, and it rides on the Canes making a goalie change. Curtis McElhinney is the expected starter tonight source. I think this will be a good change of pace for the Canes. McElhinney had a season SV% of .912 which would be way better than Mrazek’s .852 in Game 1 and .76 in Game 2.

I think a new look against the Bruins is needed. In Game 1 Boston had 4 goals on 27 shots and in Game 2 they had 6 goals on 25 shots. Game 1 was a lot closer than the scoreboard, and Game 2… not so much. I don’t see this team rolling over in front of their home crowd. I see the combination of the low volume shots Carolina has allowed and the different look in net holding the Bruins under 2.5 goals. Boston has not scored under 2.5 goals since Game 3 against Columbus, and have only scored under that total 5 times this postseason. On top of that they are averaging 3.4 goals per game in the playoffs. So I understand not tailing on this one…. I am still rolling with it though.

My Play: TT Boston Bruins u2.5 (-105) – 1U

– NBA –

Conference finals matchups are set, and I am ready! Tonight, I expect the Warriors to win, but if there is a chance for Portland in the series, they have strike while KD is out. I am going to be rooting hard for Portland, but am struggling with the spread, and honestly in a gun to my head decision I’d have to go with the Warriors -7.5. I think the best play tonight is the over 220.5. I like both these teams to put up points tonight. Throughout the playoffs Portland has scored an average of 110.25 PPG and allowed 110.75 PPG. On offense, the Warriors have averaged 117.67 PPG this postseason and have allowed 111.83 PPG. I see this one going over the 220.5 total. Using 220.5 as the benchmark for all the games played this postseason Portland would be 7-5 going over and Golden State would be 8-4 on the over. During the regular season these teams faced off 4 times and they split the 4 games at 2 wins a piece. If the O/U line were 220.5 in those 4 matchups, they would be 2-2 on the over as well. The average game total for these two teams in the regular season was 224.25.

My Play: Golden State Warriors/Portland Trail Blazers o220.5 (-110) – 1U

NBA Western Conference Finals

4-2 on the NBA playoffs up 0.76 units

Trail Blazers +8 at -115 for 5 units. Blazers went 1-1 at the Oracle this season. Kevin Durant is still out. Portland should control the paint and the free throw line as the Warriors are one of the worst teams in both of those categories. They are the best at other obvious categories like shooting and assists. The Blazers know they have to win one of these first two games if they want to move on to the Finals. Damian and CJ are 1-8 against the Warriors in the playoffs, but I think that record improves during this series. Taking the points tonight.

MLB May 13th

92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

5-3 on MLB this season up 8.24 units 

Tigers at +140 for 2 units. Matthew Boyd of the Tigers has pitched 13 more innings than Brad Peacock of the Astros. Peacock has allowed more home runs though. Boyd averages well over a strikeout an inning. Brandon Dixon has been hot since Detroit picked up off of waivers. Tigers have a winning record at home (barely). Astros have a losing record on the road (barely). Good value here with Detroit’s ace on the mound.

Yankees/Orioles over 8.5 at -110 for 2 unit. No Yankee player has more than 5 ABs against the starter for Baltimore today, Daniel Hess. 5 Yankee players have homered against him though. Yankees scored 7 in their last game. The bats are waking up. Aaron Hicks is returning. Orioles lost 15-3 the last time Hess started against the Yankees. All we need is half of those runs today.