69-58-5 on the NFL last season (2018/19) up 26.36 units
21-27 on the NFL this season down 5.92 units
Chiefs -3 at -130 for 5 units. Chiefs have lost two in a row. Broncos have won two in a row. The Texans ran for 192 yards against KC last week. The Colts ran for 182 yards the week before against KC. Crazy I know but when Mahomes doesn’t have the ball, he can’t throw the ball. The Chiefs will score enough early to make it so the Broncos can’t play that style of football. Tyreek Hill is officially back. Mahomes has a little Kirk Cousins-syndrome and is 2-5 in primetime. He is 15-1 in all other games. Those two numbers will equal out starting tonight.
I am not betting on Joe Flacco. Kansas City have covered 6 of the past 7 times against the Broncos. Denver is one of the worst teams in the league at converting 3rd downs. The Texans and Colts beat the Chiefs with solid QB play and a great running attack. I doubt the Broncos can get those two things working as well as those two teams did. Mahomes and the offense do enough to make up for the Chiefs’ defensive deficiencies.
Chiefs/Broncos over 48 at -120 for 3 units. A hedge against my -3 of sorts. If the Broncos do cover, they will have to break 25 points for the first time in the last 15 games. I see a 31-21 type game here. I don’t trust the defense of either team enough to play the under, so I am hitting the over.