Month: October 2019

Baseball

ALCS Game 3 Prediction – Astros at Yankees

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92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

48-42 on MLB this season down 1.29 units

6-3 on playoffs up 4.51 units

Yankees at +135 for 6 units. Severino vs Cole. Cole led the league in strikeouts this season with 326. Severino is pitching for the first time since October 7th. Yankees need him to go deep in the game as they used 8 relievers in Game 2. The Yankees are averaging 9 runs a game at home this postseason. Cole is 18-0 in his last 24 games, but pitching in the Bronx in October is a different animal. Yankees 7-8-9 hitters should do more damage than Houston’s 7-8-9 hitters. New York almost has to win this game to win the series in my eyes. There may be a rainout in this series, which would mean more rest for Verlander. Yankees can’t lost at home. Taking the value here, even if it is a little square.

Baseball

NLCS Game 3 – Cardinals at Nationals Preview

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92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

48-41 on MLB this season up 5.71 units

6-2 on playoffs up 11.51 units

Cardinals at +113 for 7 units. Sending it. Scared Money Don’t Make Money. I didn’t have a strong feeling on the first two games in this series, so I stayed away. The gut has made a decision on this one though. Strasburg gave up some homers to the Dodgers in his last start. The Cardinals have struggled to hit, but Jack Flaherty will keep the game close on the mound for St. Louis. Marcell Ozuna is 14-44 with 3 homers against Strasburg all-time. Ozuna will get his first hit in the series tonight. Flaherty didn’t give up an earned run in his only other meeting with the Nationals. Cardinals seem to do their best work with their backs against the wall (see Games 4 and 5 of the last series). They only lost the first two games of this series 2-0 and 3-1. It is not like they were getting blown out. St. Louis gets one back tonight against Strasburg.

Football

Monday Night Football – Lions at Packers

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69-58-5 on the NFL last season (2018/19) up 26.36 units

19-27 on the NFL this season down 12.75 units

Lions +4 for 6 units. Detroit are coming off of a BYE. Don’t like betting against Rodgers, but I like it tonight. Davante Adams is out. Quandre Diggs and Slay should contain Green Bay’s available wideouts. Detroit’s defense is the least penalized in the league by a mile. Rodgers loves getting penalties on the defense, so that will be an interesting battle. The Lions have a lot of options on offense. Danny Amendola is back and he may do nothing, or have two touchdowns. Who Knows? The Packers struggled against an Eagles team that the Lions beat. Lions have had time to prepare for the Packers. I like this spot.

Aaron Rodgers Longest Completion over 36.5 yards at -120 for 1 unit. Rodgers has less than 250 passing yards in 4 games this season. He is going to have to pass over that mark if he wants to beat the Lions. I could see a hail mary or broken play hitting this prop bet.

Soccer

Euro Action – Portugal at Ukraine

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92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

53-41-10 on Soccer in 2019 up 3.04 units

Portugal/Ukraine over 2 at -140 for 3 units. Ukraine hasn’t allowed a goal in over 400 minutes in this competition. That changes today.

Portugal at +115 for 3 units. Ukraine will secure advancement with a draw. Portugal have won their past 3 games by 9 a combined 9 goals. Andriy Yarmolenko will be the main attacking option for Ukraine. William Carvalho is injured in the midfield for Portugal, but I still like Ronaldo and crew to the get the job done.

Tennis

Tennis – Tsonga and Rublev

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91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

45-53 on tennis in 2019 down 47.44 units

Tsonga at -310 for 2 units. Tsonga is 1-0 against Sonego in their careers. Tsonga won here in Antwerp in 2017. He has two titles on this surface this calendar year. Sonego has lost his past 3 matches.

Rublev at -250 for 3 units. Bublik retired from his last match. Rublev is the more talented player and will look to even the H2H in Moscow. Rublev lost Zverev in his last match. Zverev was painting lines in that one. Bublik will not be able to match that level.

Football

NFL Sunday – Christian McCaffrey Takes Talents to London

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69-58-5 on the NFL last season (2018/19) up 26.36 units

18-26 on the NFL this season down 14.66 units

Panthers at -135 for 8 units. McCaffrey is in the MVP discussion for a reason. He has dominated the past three weeks against the Jaguars, Texans, and Cardinals. Revenge game for the Panthers. CMC was stopped a yard short on the final play in the Panthers loss to the Bucs. He is going to come ready to play. I would not want to play against him in fantasy this week. Carolina’s defensive line is quietly one of the best in the league with Gerald McCoy, Brian Burns, Vernon Butler, Mario Addison, and Dontari Poe. Shaquil Barrett has 9 sacks for Tampa Bay. Impressive at this point in the season.

Tampa Bay’s wideouts could be a problem for the Carolina defense.. but the only reason Tampa won the first matchup was because Cam Newton couldn’t run (or throw that well). A healthy Kyle Allen is better than an injured Cam Newton. The Panthers are putting up over 380 yards and 29 points a game with Kyle Allen. DJ Moore and Christian McCaffrey will have great days in London. Panthers win 31-21.

Ravens/Bengals over 47 at -115 for 2 units. Bengals can’t tackle. I’ve done studies and teams that can’t tackle give up a lot of points. The Cardinals scored 26 points against the Bengals last week. I expect the Ravens to score more than that. Ravens lead the league in scoring offense.

Chargers/Ravens/Cowboys Parlay risking 2 units to win 2.12 units. Fading the Steelers, Bengals, and Jets here. Chargers came out flat against the Broncos last week and lost because of it. That won’t happen again. Cowboys travel to New York. Dallas gave up 4 touchdowns to Aaron Jones last week. Stopping Bell will be their focus I’d imagine. There is a world where the Jets win, but I like Cooper and Elliott to get the job done. Mosley and Anderson are likely to be out for the Jets on defense. The Ravens play a Bengals team that can’t tackle.

Football

Thursday Night Football – Giants at Patriots Prediction

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69-58-5 on the NFL last season (2018/19) up 26.36 units

16-25 on the NFL this season down 16.05 units

Patriots -4.5 first quarter at -135 for 6 units. Redskins scored the first touchdown last week.. That was their only touchdown. The Patriots won’t get off to a slow start at home against this depleted Giants team. Bill will have the boys ready to play.

Patriots -10.5 first half at -110 for 5 units. Patriots are 4-1 in covering the first half spread. The one loss came in the last game against the Skins when the Pats were only up 12-7 at halftime. Barkley, Shepard and Engram are out for the Giants. Patriots have the best defense in the league – yes I know they have only played shit and that is why their defense is so good.. but guess what? The team the Giants are fielding tonight is shit. Patriots allow 5.36 yards a passing attempt (best in league) and have not allowed a passing touchdown (best in league). Rookie QB on the road against the best coach ever. I’ll take my chances..

Patriots/Giants over 42 at -110 for 2 units. If the Giants can score 10 points, this will win. Patriots defense and special teams could easily account for 14 points in this game. Patriots win 38-10.

Baseball

NLDS Game 5s – Nats at Dodgers and Cardinals at Braves

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92-83 on MLB last season and went up 34.31 units

46-41 on MLB this season up 0.48 units

4-2 on playoffs up 6.28 units

Cardinals at -115 for 4 units. This is a Lock on my Podcast. Braves 3 through 7 hitters are 10-70 this series. Jack Flaherty only gave up 3 runs in 7 innings earlier this series. Folty outpitched Flaherty in Game 2, but I am not going to bet on that to happen again. The Braves haven’t won a postseason series since 2001. The Braves gave up the lead and many chances in Game 4. Yadier “been there before” Molina had two clutch hits (one was a sac fly but it counts) on the way to the Cardinals win. Goldschmidt and Ozuna have been en fuego. People on this Cardinals team have been here before and done it. The Cardinals are favored on the road for a reason. Take it.

Nationals/Dodgers over 7 at -115 for 2 units. Life’s too short to take unders. I could see one team getting hot and not letting up. Anthony Rendon and Bellinger have been heating up. Justin Turner has been barreling it up. Strasburg has an ERA under 1 in 28 postseason innings, but the Dodgers are one of the best hitting teams in baseball. A pitcher’s duel is predicted, but I am going the other way.