Month: October 2019

Football

Thursday Night Football – Rams at Seahawks

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69-58-5 on the NFL last season (2018/19) up 26.36 units

13-24 on the NFL this season down 26.89 units

Rams +1.5 at -110 for 4 units. Head coach Sean McVay is 10-2 vs the division. Seattle has their worst defense in.. well.. about a decade (allowing 22.3 PPG). McVay should be able to scheme up some big plays against this Seattle secondary. Cooper Kupp is off to the best start of his career. He literally looks faster than before he tore his acl. Kupp got injured against Seattle last season.

Image result for kupp gif

Goff threw for 517 yards in the loss last week to the Bucs. He could have thrown for 650 yards honestly. Even with all those yards, it was not Goff’s best game. Still, Seattle will struggle to put up points like Arians, Godwin, and Evans did.  Jadeveon Clowney, Rasheem Green, and Quinton Jefferson are all pass-rushing studs, but the Seattle’s secondary doesn’t scare me. LA’s secondary hasn’t been terrible, but the pass rush has to step up. Dante Fowler and Clay Matthews need to dominate, while Donald is getting double and triple-teamed. Gurley gets more touches than last week and the Rams complete more big plays for the cover.

B. Cooks over 4.5 catches at -125 for 1 unit. Cooks has had 8 and 6 receptions the past two weeks respectively. Kupp and Woods are both projected for more catches by Vegas. I’ll take the lowest over/under number of the 3 against this weak Seattle secondary.

Soccer

Europa League Action

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92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

51-39-10 on Soccer in 2019 up 3.68 units

Basel at +142 for 3 units. This Basel team is really fucking good. Yes, they tied some Young Boys club recently, but they won their last group game against Krasnodar 5-0. Valentin Stocker is having his best season since rejoining the club. Young Brazilian striker Arthur has been scoring recently. Kemal Ademi is averaging a goal an appearance for the club. 5 clean sheets in their last 6 for Basel. The squad is clicking. Trabzonspor played well against a bad Besiktas team, but Basel is a step-up in competition.

Besiktas/Wolves over 2.5 at -119 for 3 units.

Wolves at +124 for 3 units. Besiktas’s defense is a sieve.

Arsenal/Sevilla Parlay risking 3 units to win 1.64 units. Sevilla have Barcelona over the weekend, so they may rest some players; however, APOEL’s defense will not be enough for Sevilla’s crosses and forward play. Arsenal has some players coming back into the squad including Bellerin and Holding. Ozil, Pepe, and others will get the job done.

Soccer

Champions League Continued

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Arsenal drawing yesterday helped me to two units. McTominay had a stunning strike in the first half for Manchester United, but Aubameyang pulled it back in the second half. McTominay has been improving lately, but both these clubs need more improvement if they want to dream of reaching the standard that Liverpool/Man City have set..

Onto Champions..

92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

51-37-10 on Soccer in 2019 up 8.68 units

Real Madrid -1.5 at -120 for 4 units. I watched Real Madrid play Sevilla and Atletico recently. They secured 4 points against those two tough-to-play clubs. The Real defense looked a lot better than against PSG in those games… That’ll happen when Sergio Ramos is allowed back in the lineup. Real Madrid have struggled at home in the Champions League losing to Ajax and Juve, while tying Bayern. Club Brugge have not lost in their last 3 away games vs teams with a higher UEFA score in Champions League. Even so, I expect Hazard, Benzema, Ramos, Varane, Modric, Casemiro, and Kroos to get the job done. Real Madrid will be ready to play today.

Vinicius Junior scored a fantastic goal against Osasuna recently. His teammates were happy for him, which is nice to see. Junior has all the talent, but hasn’t put it all together in games. Here’s to hoping he does today as a sub.

Tottenham +0.5 at -127 for 1 unit. Harry Kane vs Lewandowski. Bayern’s pace at winger and creativity with Coutinho, Kimmich, and Thiago worries me a little.. but not enough. Tottenham have been great at home in Champions League against top clubs over the past few years. The Lilywhites “need” this win more than Bayern, as they are two points behind in the group.