Author: John Anders

Basketball

NBA Wednesday – Warriors Begin To Turn It On

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61-53-2 on NBA in 2018 up 9.28 units

19-17-2 on NBA this season down 2.99 units

Warriors -3 at +112 for 4 units. Warriors have won 2 in a row (although their win against the Kings was too close for comfort). Jazz play the Warriors tough. Both teams are 14-17 ATS this season. Curry is shooting the ball lights out and that continues tonight. Jazz have lost 4 of 5 and only shot 35% over their last two. Jazz don’t have the offense to keep up. Boogie Cousins should be back at the start of February, but the Warriors are 6-2 since Steph’s return. They win another tonight.

T’Wolves/Bucks/Blazers Parlay risking 4 units to win 5.74 units. Timberwolves are 12-4 at home and 2-12 on the road. This game against the Pistons is in Minnesota. The Bucks will be going against the Pelicans, who will be without Payton, Randle and Mirotic. Bucks are 13-3 at home. Pelicans are 4-11 away. Bucks have lost 3 in a row vs the Pelicans, that changes tonight. Trail Blazers lost to Memphis earlier this season. They will get their revenge tonight. Mike Conley isn’t 100% although he will prolly play. Lillard. McCollum, and Nurkic have all been playing well (they all had more than 20 last time out at the Clippers). Blazers have to win these home games to make the playoffs in the closely contested West.

Soccer

Bundesliga and EFL Cup

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84-68-8 on Soccer since World Cup up 18.62 units

RB Leipzig +2 at -185 for 7 units. Bayern Munich have been finding some better form, but they haven’t been playing anybody great in their recent wins. Leipzig have one of the best defenses in all of Europe so far this season. Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 7 of 15 league matches this season. Leipzig won 2-1 last time they met. Timo Werner has scored 3 goals in his last 3 meetings against Bayern. Werner also scored twice over the weekend. Yussuf Poulsen has been in fine form for Leipzig this season as well. +2 is way too much for a top-4-Bundesliga clash. Lewandowski, Muller, Kimmich, Alaba, and others are all great, but I like this spot.

Eintracht Frankfurt at +120 for 2 units. Frankfurt are one of my favorite teams to watch in Europe. Today they go on the road against injury-riddled Mainz. Frankfurt have not won in their last 10 trips to the Opel Arena. That has a good chance of changing today. Luka Jovic and Sebastien Haller are deadly going forward for Frankfurt. Mainz have struggled keeping clean sheets this season and today will be no different.

Chelsea at -277 for 3 units. Bournemouth are in terrible form. Chelsea could field a weak lineup, but as long as Pedro, Willian, and/or Hazard play I like them. These are the types of games where Giroud shines.

Tottenham to advance at +104 for 2 units. Tottenham went up on Arsenal last time they met at halftime (due to an undeserved PK), but Arsenal turned it on in the second half and won. Arsenal’s defense has injury concerns that don’t include Rob Holding being out for the year. Harry Kane will score. Arsenal’s defensive issues that showed in their loss to Southampton continue here.

Basketball

NBA Tuesday

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61-53-2 on NBA in 2018 up 9.28 units

18-16-2 on NBA this season down 0.66 units

Wizards -3 at +108 for 4 units. I think the departures of Oubre and Rivers help this Wizards team. I don’t see Oubre and Rivers and think “hard workers”. They are both talented, but Washington wasn’t the best fit for either of their games IMO. They are still technically on the Wiz, but the trade should be finalized sometime soon. Atlanta has not been playing much defense of late. They gave up 144 points to the Nets. John Wall didn’t play in the first meeting this season, but Washington still won by 14. Send it.

Nuggets at -180 for 3 units. Mavs have struggled recently, while the Nuggets just keep winning. Mavs are 2-10 away. Nuggets are 12-3 at home. I have Denver more heavily favored than this..

Soccer

Bundesliga Tuesday

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83-66-8 on Soccer since World Cup up 21.32 units

Dortmund -1 at -130 for 3 units.

Dortmund at -205 for 1 unit. A lot of Dusseldorf’s players have injury concerns. They will be starting a few subs today. Paco Alcacer leads the league in goals with 11. Dortmund have won their past 5 matches and all 5 away matches this season. Reus, Pulisic, Witsel, Sancho, Philipp, and Gotze will be too much for Dusseldorf. Dusseldorf’s defender, Ayhan scored a brace last time out. That won’t happen here.. Dodi Lukebakio has been a pleasant surprise for the home team here, but I don’t think Dodi and his teammates can do enough to get points agains the league leaders today.

Borussia Monchengladbach -1 at -167 for 2 units. Monchengladbach have not lost or tied at home all season. Thorgan Hazard has stepped his play up this season and it shows in his stats. Nurnberg have got 1 point and scored 3 goals in their past 5 games.

Soccer

Soccer Sunday

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81-63-8 on Soccer since World Cup up 18.29 units

Arsenal -1 at +150 for 2 units. Southampton haven’t won in their last 12 PL matches. Arsenal, well, has won. Aubameyang is tied for the league lead with 10 goals. Southampton lost to Cardiff last time out and Tottenham 3-1 before that. I think there is a better chance for Arsenal to win by 2 or more than these odds entail.

Liverpool at -176 for 2 units. Not betting on Mourinho’s side. Klopp and Salah get the win today.

Girona +1.5 at -150 for 2 units. Sevilla are great at home, but Girona has been playing well. Both of these teams have 5 goals in their last 5 games while allowing only 3. Stuani is tied with Messi for top scorer in the league. Should be a close game. I love Sevilla, but I think winning by 2 goals against a solid Girona side is a tall order.

Eintracht Frankfurt at +154 for 1 unit. Luka Jovic and Sebastien Haller. That is all.

Barcelona/Villarreal +0/Real Betis +0.5 risking 4 units to win 9.07 units. Betis are in some of the best form in La Liga, while Espanyol are in some of the worst. Carlos Bacca has scored 4 goals in his last two La Liga games for Villarreal. Huesca are looking like they are going to get relegated. Villarreal have to take advantage. Barcelona lost one game all of last season, that was to Levante 5-4. They get revenge today.

Football

NFL Sunday – My Panthers Can’t Lose Today!!

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59-44-5 on the NFL up 30.79 units

Shoutout to the Browns. Winning in Denver isn’t easy, even this year. Denver one upped the Falcons and ran out of a secondary. Baker Mayfield is good. Nick Chubb is good. Myles Garrett is good. Jabrill Peppers is good. Denzel Ward is good. It’s amazing how much talent you can put together when you don’t have a winning season for over 10 years. I would fire Vance Joseph and draft Kyler Murray if I was the Broncos. I know I know, Kyler is playing baseball.. but make him think about it. Work some magic Elway.

A lot of games are hard for me to get a read on this week, like Giants +1 at home against the Titans in what could be ugly weather and the Packers +5 against the Bears. There are some spots I like however…

Cowboys at +150 for 3 units. Cowboys are 6-1 at home. I know I know this game is in Indy, but let’s face it… all the fans will be wearing blue and it is in a dome. Dak will be confused and think he is playing at home when he looks up and sees Jerry in a box with all that blue. Seriously though, I am not convinced Indy will be able to stop Elliot. Darius Leonard leads the league in tackles (17 tackles ahead of Blake Martinez) for the Colts, but I don’t think even he will be able to do enough against the Cowboys rushing attack. This will be the best defense Indy has faced all year.. I am taking the value here.

Vikings/Ravens Parlay at -156 for 3 units. Two home teams against inferior competition here. The Dolphins won their Super Bowl last week. The Dolphins are 32% on 3rd down, while the Vikings complete 40% of 3rd downs. Minnesota only allows teams to convert 29% of their 3rd downs against them. The Vikings looked bad against the Seahawks, but they rebound here at home.

The Bucs can technically still make the playoffs (second longest playoff drought behind the Browns). The Ravens defense should control this game though. Winston playing in one of the crab capitals of the world has to be distracting for him. He ain’t eating no W’s today. 4th meeting between Heisman winning Qbs this season. The home QB has won every time. Tampa Bay just turns the ball over too much here. Taking the home team on this cold Baltimore day.

Steelers at +116 for 3 units. Patriots are 3-4 on the road this season. You ready for this stat? Hold on to something… Teams that that lose on a walkoff TD are 1-10 in their next game if it is on the road in the last 18 years. Bam. Tom Brady is 8-2 against Big Ben, but I think Ben gets one back today. I am not going to mention the Jesse James overturned touchdown. I’m not going to mention it so don’t worry Pittsburgh fans… Pats allow over 370 yards a game. AB and JuJu should have their way.

MMA

Lee/Iaquinta

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2-1 on UFC/MMA down 1.43 units

Lost the big bet on Brian Ortega last time out. What a fight that was. Max Holloway scared me away with his health issues, but damn is he a beast.

Zak Cummings at -316 for 3 units. Cummings has a 6-3 UFC record, while Smith is 5-5. Cummings will win this one with a submission.

Joaquim Silva at +108 for 3 units. Bet on the Brazilian. Silva has lost 1 match in his UFC career and it went the distance. I told myself I would bet on him in his next fight when he lost to Pinchel and here we are. I expect him to rebound nicely.

Charles Oliveira at -303 for 3 units. Bet on the Brazilian. Oliveira is going for revenge as Jim Miller was his first ever loss. Charles submitted to the knee bar in the first round against Miller. Oliveira is coming off back 2 back performances of the night. I like him here.

Lee/Iaquinta over 2.5 at -120 for 5 units. Iaquinta went the distance with Khabib. This is a rematch of a fight that went the distance. These guys are a great matchup and I think this one goes the distance as well. Kevin Lee has the ability to submit Iaquinta, but I don’t think he will. This should be a good one.

Football

NFL Saturdays Are Here

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58-44-4 on the NFL up 26.20 units

Texans -7 at +104 for 4 units. I’ve bet on the Jets thrice this year (against Broncos, Colts, and Titans) and won all 3. Doesn’t mean I like betting on them though. Todd Bowles is simply not a good head coach. Texans defensive line will eat. DeAndre Hopkins can’t be covered by the whole city of New York. Texans coming off a loss. Houston is the second most sacked team in the league, but they will focus on quick throws and fixing that in this game. Watson has thrown only 2 interceptions since week 8.

Sam Darnold has struggled against good defenses (Ex: Vikings) and I expect that to continue. Darnold leads the league with 15 interceptions. He has only played 10 games. I don’t know why people thought his interception problems at USC wouldn’t carry over.. but they have. Get right game for the Texans. Houston are better on 3rd down, better at taking care of the ball, better at pressuring the QB.. you get it.

Browns at +115 for 4 units. I don’t think Vance Joseph is a great head coach either. Browns have looked a lot better since firing Hue Jackson and playing Nick Chubb. Surprise. Surprise. Gregg Williams has has many wins as Hue Jackson did in 40 games. Why the hell does Gregg’s name have two G’s in his name. That’s annoying. Myles Garrett and Von Miller, two former Aggies, are some of the best rushers in the league and get to show off for each other today. Mayfield has one of the highest YPG for a rookie ever. Broncos have won 11 straight against Cleveland, but that has a good chance of changing today. I think this game will be close, so I will take the team at plus money. If one team has the ability to blow the other out, I think it is the Browns though.

Football

College Football – Bowl Season Begins

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44-31 on College Football this season up 29.33 units

I made 43 bets on bowl games last year and went up around 10 units, while going 23-20. I think I will do a little better this season as I have watched a lot of college football this year. Let’s get it.

Autonation Cure Bowl – Tulane Green Wave Vs. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns

Louisiana +3.5 for 2 units. The Ragin’ Cajuns score over 32 points a game behind their two running backs, who both have over 950 rushing yards on the season (Trey Ragas and Elijah Mitchell). Billy Napier has done a great job with this team in his first year. The underdog has covered the last 5 times these two have met. Tulane is on their second Qb, Justin McMillan. Justin is 4-1 with the starting job. This should be a fun rivalry game in Orlando Florida. I’m taking the points in what should be a close game.

New Mexico Bowl – North Texas Mean Green Vs Utah State Aggies

Utah State -7 for 4 units. Utah State will have the best player on the field in QB Jordan Love. Love has 34 total touchdowns this season and has only thrown 5 interceptions. The Aggies average over 47 points a game and have been one of the best offenses to watch in football all season long. Utah State is 9-3 ATS this season, while the Mean Green are only 4-8 against the spread. Not going to overthink this one.

Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl – Fresno State Bulldogs Vs Arizona State Sun Devils

Arizona State at +199 for 2 units. Herm Edwards has done a lot better with this Sun Devil program than most expected (my hand is up). I was a hater when they hired him, but Arizona State has looked solid. Marcus McMaryion has been great for Fresno State this season, throwing 25 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Marcus is trying to lead Fresno to their first 12 win season ever. N’Keal Harry, ASU’s leading wideout, is sitting out this game as to not get injured before the draft. ASU has the Pac-12 defensive freshman of the year in linebacker Merlin Robertson. He is all over the field and is hard to miss when you’re watching the ASU defense. Eno Benjamin is a great running back for ASU. Arizona State has beat some quality opponents this season and I think that continues here.

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl – Georgia Southern Eagles Vs Eastern Michigan Eagles

Over 45 points for 3 units. I am going to be honest, I have not watched either of these teams play this season… so why not take the over? Georgia Southern’s games have seen an average of 52 points, while Eastern Michigan’s games sit at 49 points on average. Georgia Southern is on pace to break the record for taking care of the ball. They have only committed 5 turnovers all season (record is 8).

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl – Middle Tennessee Raiders Vs Appalachian State Mountaineers

App State -7 for 3 units. App allows less than 16 points a game. Middle Tennessee coach, Rich Stockstill, will be coaching his son, QB Brent Stockstill, for the final time here. App’s coach, Scott Satterfield, has left for Louisville. Middle Tennessee has the better QB, but App has the better team by far.

Soccer

Soccer – Winter (Break) is Coming

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79-62-7 on Soccer since World Cup up 16.21 units

Atletico Madrid at -146 for 4 units. This game should be at -250, but it isn’t because Atletico haven’t won in 4 games away from home. Valladolid does not have the talent that Madrid has. Madrid only have 1 away win this season in the league. That changes today. Atletico have won their past 6 La Liga matches against Valladolid by a score of 16-2. Oblak has 103 clean sheets for Atletico. Yes, 103!! Valladolid have only scored 4 goals in their past 5 league games. Atletico wins 1-0 or 2-0.

Valencia at +179 for 2 units. Eibar have had one of their best starts to a La Liga season ever, but Valencia have the second best defense in the league (12 goals allowed) behind Atletico and tied with Getafe. Pareja has been great being the maestro this season for Valencia. Kondogbia, Soler, Mina, Rodrigo, Wass, Coquelin, and Garay are all solid players for Valencia. This Valencia team has struggled for wins this season, but they lead Europe with 9 league draws this season. Eibar have slowed down and Valencia have picked it up over the past few games. Here’s to that continuing..

Dortmund at -299 for 4 units. I love this Dortmund team, and not just because they have Christian Pulisic. Paco Alcacer has 11 goals in only 6 starts this season. He is a World Class super sub. Dortmund hasn’t lost at home in the league all season. Werder Bremen have only won 1 of their last 5 league games. Dortmund has won all 5 of their last 5 and are 7 points clear of Monchengladbach at the top of the table (8 points ahead of Bayern). Dortmund averages over 3.5 goals a game at home. I told myself I would keep betting Dortmund under -300 till they burned me and they haven’t yet.

Juventus -1 at +108 for 2 units. Derby della Mole today. The oldest derby in Italy. Juventus and Torino. Juventus have not gone two matches without a win since they signed Ronaldo. They lost to Young Boys midweek, but they had already qualified for the round of 16 in the Champions League. Ronaldo will go out of his way to be a team player in this one, after being selfish and cancelling Dybala’s goal against Young Boys. Torino have been a fairly easy team to bet on this season as they win the matches they are supposed to and draw/lose vs better competition (AC Milan and Napoli). Juventus have won their past 3 meetings. Dybala is in great form. Mario Mandzukic is one of the best poachers in all of soccer. I like this spot with Juve coming off a loss.