59-44-5 on the NFL up 30.79 units
Shoutout to the Browns. Winning in Denver isn’t easy, even this year. Denver one upped the Falcons and ran out of a secondary. Baker Mayfield is good. Nick Chubb is good. Myles Garrett is good. Jabrill Peppers is good. Denzel Ward is good. It’s amazing how much talent you can put together when you don’t have a winning season for over 10 years. I would fire Vance Joseph and draft Kyler Murray if I was the Broncos. I know I know, Kyler is playing baseball.. but make him think about it. Work some magic Elway.
A lot of games are hard for me to get a read on this week, like Giants +1 at home against the Titans in what could be ugly weather and the Packers +5 against the Bears. There are some spots I like however…
Cowboys at +150 for 3 units. Cowboys are 6-1 at home. I know I know this game is in Indy, but let’s face it… all the fans will be wearing blue and it is in a dome. Dak will be confused and think he is playing at home when he looks up and sees Jerry in a box with all that blue. Seriously though, I am not convinced Indy will be able to stop Elliot. Darius Leonard leads the league in tackles (17 tackles ahead of Blake Martinez) for the Colts, but I don’t think even he will be able to do enough against the Cowboys rushing attack. This will be the best defense Indy has faced all year.. I am taking the value here.
Vikings/Ravens Parlay at -156 for 3 units. Two home teams against inferior competition here. The Dolphins won their Super Bowl last week. The Dolphins are 32% on 3rd down, while the Vikings complete 40% of 3rd downs. Minnesota only allows teams to convert 29% of their 3rd downs against them. The Vikings looked bad against the Seahawks, but they rebound here at home.
The Bucs can technically still make the playoffs (second longest playoff drought behind the Browns). The Ravens defense should control this game though. Winston playing in one of the crab capitals of the world has to be distracting for him. He ain’t eating no W’s today. 4th meeting between Heisman winning Qbs this season. The home QB has won every time. Tampa Bay just turns the ball over too much here. Taking the home team on this cold Baltimore day.
Steelers at +116 for 3 units. Patriots are 3-4 on the road this season. You ready for this stat? Hold on to something… Teams that that lose on a walkoff TD are 1-10 in their next game if it is on the road in the last 18 years. Bam. Tom Brady is 8-2 against Big Ben, but I think Ben gets one back today. I am not going to mention the Jesse James overturned touchdown. I’m not going to mention it so don’t worry Pittsburgh fans… Pats allow over 370 yards a game. AB and JuJu should have their way.