4-2 up 6.7 units in college basketball.
Florida International +3 for 2 units. FIU has been doing well and USF has been bad. Simple ATS trends here.
USF – FIU under 127 for 1 unit. Monday game, USF has been rough lately scoring only 61 against Appalachian State.
6-3 in NBA +4.55 units
Miami Heat ML -104 for 3 units – Dragic has looked better of late and no Mike Conley for the Grizz. Tyreke Evans is having a nice little resurgence in Memphis this year. Evans is averaging 18.5 points per game along with 5 rebounds and 4 assists a game. Heat turned the ball over a season-low six times in their game against the Nets. Think they get a good sound win.
Rockets -11.5 -116 for 2 units – James Harden and Chris Paul have been better than many expected together. The Pelicans have looked good with Rondo getting 18 assists in a game recently and Jrue Holiday going off in a comeback versus the 76ers. I do not think the Pelicans are sound enough on defense to keep this one close. The Blazers used the strategy off pushing the Rockets off the 3 point line but it did not work enough for Portland to get the win. This line is a little high, but I still like it.
Celtics -7 and Thunder -7 (4.5 point teaser) 2 units for 1.82 units – The Hornets have been bad against the spread this season, but the Thunder have actually been worse. Westbrook will be hard for the Hornets to stop, like he is for most teams. Clarkson and Lakers were too much for the Hornets recently and it will be hard for them to fix their defense without their head coach being healthy. The Celtics defense has picked up over the past few games and the team with the best record in the league (Boston) should be able to cover against the team with the worst record in the league (Chicago).
4-2 in NBA, up 3.39 units
Rockets Jazz over 209 for 3 units at -108. They scored over 240 last time they played. Rockets are averaging 213.7 points per game on the road. Gobert is a great defender but that patented Harden pick and roll has been deadly all year. Rockets are averaging 118 in the last 3. Alec Burks and Donovan Mitchell should help push the over as well.
76ers ML – Wizards ML Parlay at -130 for 2 units. 76ers beat the Lakers in LA and have looked better and better. The Lakers should send Lonzo Ball to the G-League, but as long as the play him he is good fade material. Wizards get the Suns without Devin Booker. I think Suns will be able to adjust without him, but the first game will be tough.
Wizards Suns under 213.5 at -103 for 1 unit. No Devin Booker for the Suns and Beal can’t stay that hot for the Wiz.
Georgia Tech -4 3 units. Georgia Tech struggles on the road and Wofford has played some power conference teams close this year, but GT should be able to get on track here before ACC play. This line should be 6 or 7.
George Washington -3 3 units. George Washington just seems like the better basketball team. Princeton will not be able to keep up the scoring pace. Princeton has been awful against the spread this year and see that continuing away from home. Yuta Watanabe is a beast and will be too much for Princeton to handle.
Old Dominion -11 3 units
Old Dominion ML 6 units to win 1 unit. This is a Richmond fade. Richmond lost a lot of talent from last year’s team and ODU has played good basketball this year. It is hard to see Richmond keeping it within single digits in this rivalry game. ODU lost to VCU and will want to beat a Richmond team this year.
2-1 up 2.92 units on NBA
Bucks -3.5 for 3 units at -118. Pistons struggle with the Milwaukee’s length. Drummond has been a beast since Joel Embiid pissed him off, but I do not think it will be enough for them to cover. The defense of the Pistons has been slacking since their hot start. Bucks are shooting over 50% in their last few games and, for those that forgot, they have Giannis. Feel like the line should be at 7 or 8 with the Bucks at home.
Warriors ML for 3 units to win 1.4 units. No Steph for the Warriors, but KD and Klay should be able to do enough. The Hornets seem to be overrated at home as they have not played many quality teams in Charlotte. Kemba has been great, but the Warriors should be able to shut down the Hornets enough to pull out the win. Maybe not the best value, but all wins are great values.
Celtic Mavs over 201.5 for 3 units at -103. Celtics are scoring and allowing over 105 points in their last ten games. The other Curry brother has been great for Mavericks this season. Both these teams have been hot so let’s ride the hot hands.
Texas ML -286 4 units
UVA +4.5 3 units
Texas gives up 63.3 points a game and this will be one of the better defenses VCU has seen all year. VCU had far too many turnovers in their last game against Old Dominion. Justin Tillman was just named A10 player of the week and will have to continue his tough work in the paint if VCU wants to pull out a win. One of the few highly regarded recruits that has stayed since these coaching changes, De’Riante Jenkins, has been great for the rams this season. Jenkins will need to drop at least 20 if VCU wants to beat their former coach. Shaka struggled in his first two seasons at Texas, but it looks like this could be the year where he rights the ship. Shaka used to shop at the humble grocery store Kroger, off Broad St in Richmond near the Siegel Center. No telling where he shops now that Texas gave him a 3 million dollar per year deal untill 2022.
Who doesn’t love UVA basketball? The slow ugly style they play is enjoyable. If you are a beginner in watching UVA basketball, you may hate it; however, there is something to admire about great defense. Their style is reminiscent of Big 10 football. They beat Wisconsin by 12 and UVA only scored 49 points!! Slow and Steady wins the race. Virginia does not have the firepower they had when they had Malcom Brogdon and others, but I think they will have enough to cover against WVU. Nigel Johnson, the UVA transfer from Kansas State, is 1-3 vs WVU. He will be able to help his team out with the little things in this game. West Virginia does have an experienced backcourt, but it will not be enough.
Also, if you are bored around 9PM eastern. Just turn on the Duke game to see Marvin Bagley III. The guy is amazing and this is coming from a UNC fan. Plus you may get another Allen trip that would send twitter into the biggest sports mayhem since that Peterman guy threw 5 picks in a half for the Bills.
Suns +13.5 4 units
Jazz +7 3 units
Blazers -5.5 4 units
Devin Booker is fresh off a season high of 46 points. I think he keeps the ball rolling here against a solid at home Raptors team. The former North Carolina State standout T.J. Warren has been playing well this season and he presents a tough matchup for Ibaka and Jonas. Also, the Suns interim head coach, Jay Triano, was the first Canadian born head coach in the NBA. Suns get the Canadian coaching boost in Toronto.
Gobert is back and the Thunder have not beaten anybody by 7 in their last 5 games. I do like the Thunder more at home, but I could see the Jazz winning this one outright. Jazz are 4-1 in the second night of a back 2 back. They have a good back 2 back record because of their sound defense and inside scoring. Alec Burks will outscore Carmelo as the Jazz keep it close.
The Wizards looked like shit against the Jazz and will be without Wall against the Blazers. The Wiz need the mojo that Wall offers, especially against a team led by the notorious rapper Dolla Dame. Blazers are only 7-6 at home, but usually dominate in the Moda center. I think their home wins start to trend upwards toward previous year’s means starting with a win against the Wizards tonight.
PSG +0 2 units
Chelsea +0 2 units
Basel +0 2 units
PSG is 3 points ahead of Bayern when they travel to Munich on Tuesday. PSG has scored a staggering 24 goals and are making Barcelona miss Neymar more and more. Munich has gone through a coaching change recently and they have *only* 10 goals in this group stage. Bayern may be favored, but I am betting on PSG +0 +115 for 2 units as I see this game ending in a tie. I am not betting the tie because I trust Cavani, Neymar, and Mbappe more than Lewandowski.
Chelsea and Hazard looked back to their dominant selfs over the weekend against Newcastle. Atletico is coming into form as well, but I do not think they can do enough to get a win here against Chelsea at home. There is some juice here at -185, but I’ll take it because worst case scenario I see a tie in this one. My prediction would be a 2-1 Chelsea win.
The Basel bet at -130 is simply a Benfica fade. Benfica has scored one goal this whole group stage and Basel has actually looked quite strong. Basel sits at second in the group beating out Moscow by goal differential alone. Moscow plays Man U so Basel has to think if they can get a win here they move on. They will be playing their hardest and Benfica hasn’t looked good when they have something to play for — and now they do not have much to play for.
Dwayne Bacon will be everything the Charlotte Hornets wanted Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to be. MKG was drafted with the 2nd pick in the 2012 draft after Anthony Davis, but before Bradley Beal. Dwayne Bacon was drafted 40th in the 2017 draft after Jawun Evans, but before Tyler Dorsey. The Hornets saw MKG as a great defender/rebounder that could hopefully develop better shooting mechanics. Bacon is different in the sense he is already a scorer, but needs to develop on defense. Steve Clifford may be the perfect coach for this situation; whereas, the Spurs with Chip Engelland may have been better suited to coach MKG.
Subscribers of the YouTube channel Home Team Hoops will know Dwayne Bacon (and Corey Sanders) and how hard they have been working down in Lakeland Florida. Corey played well at Rutgers this past year and could have gone into the draft this year. This year’s class was loaded and he opted to go back to college for another year. Bacon was in a similar situation to his friend. Dwayne is a first-round talent, but this class was stacked so he slipped and the Hornets got lucky. Dwayne said back in 2015 that “I’m the next Jordan” and after watching summer league and studying his work ethic, this may not be a lie, like most people thought when he said it.
Why would the “next Jordan” slip to the second round? There is obviously a huge emphasis on the 3-point shot in the NBA nowadays (Exhibit A: Warriors). Bacon does not have a 3-point shot right now and this was shown in the summer league. He knows this and this awareness helps him stay within his own game where he can dominate. He averaged a solid 15.2 points a game in the Orlando Summer League; however, he shot only 20% from 3-point land. This would be worrisome for the Hornets, but he clearly has a good shooting stroke showcased by his 100% free-throw percentage in Orlando. Once he extends his range, he will be an efficient offensive NBA player.