Category: Football

26-23-3 on NFL up 18.53 units

Cardinals at +110 for 3 units. Two worst run defenses in the NFL here. Cardinals are 1-5, but 3 of those loses were with Sam Bradford starting. Josh Rosen has thrown for more yards in his worst game this season than Bradford did in his best game. I don’t know what is more impressive, that Sam Bradford got a 15 million dollar contract or that Nathan Peterman keeps getting playing time.

Arizona has looked a lot better the past 3 weeks and they are 7-1-1 with David Johnson in primetime. Arizona is 2-0 ATS at home with Rosen. Mike McCoy is not a good offensive coordinator for Arizona (last in the league in yards and points), but they do have Christian Kirk, Johnson, and Larry Fitz. As bad as McCoy is, Vance Joseph might be worse. The Broncos are 1-9 on the road under Joseph. Mike Iupati is injured for Arizona, which is big because he is one of the best guards in the NFL. Denver’s injury problems are worse though. The Broncos are missing corner Adam Jones, linebacker Shane Ray, guard Ron Leary, tackle Jared Veldheer, and tackle Dymonte Thomas.

Christian Kirk over 65 receiving yards at -112 for 2 units. Bradley Roby must not know he is in a contract year because he has been getting burned for the Broncos. Kirk has gone over this number easily the past two weeks. Kirk had 7 targets last week. He averages 12.5 yards a catch. He breaks a big gain in this one.

Ricky Seals-Jones over 40 receiving yards at -115 for 3 units. If a tight end has got more than 5 targets this season against the Broncos, they have gone over 53 yards. Ricky averages a little over 5 targets on the season. He had 69 yards last week. This number is a little too low.

Giants owner John Mara said today about Beckham, “I wish he would create the headlines by his play on the field as opposed to what he says and what he does off the field. I think he needs to do a little more playing and a little less talking.”

Well it is hard to create headlines with play when Eli is your quarterback. Odell does need to be better. His muffed punt against the Panthers ended up causing them the game. In a ideal world, the Maras would stay out of player personnel decisions, but they are paying Odell 5 million more dollars a year than that Tom Brady guy gets paid. Seems like John Mara is dissing a guy that he agreed to pay all this money.

Lawerence Taylor said this in 1987, “For me, crazy as it seems, there is a real relationship between wild, reckless abandon off the field and being that way on the field.” Odell’s offseason video of a stripper doing cocaine in his bed was (pretty awesome) a huge red flag. LT, the best Giant of all-time, knows a thing or two about that life. OBJ needs to get his act together or he’s gonna be a problem even when he is done playing football. It seems Odell doesn’t have his priorities right and it has affected the Giants product on the field for the past two seasons. The Patriots will most likely trade a 4th round pick for Odell in the near future..

25-21-3 on NFL up 17.96 units

Won all 4 of my wagers this Sunday. Starting to see the board real well after a rough start to the season. Sometimes it just clicks.

The Chargers traveled east and won in Cleveland. I bet the Chargers moneyline because they are the better team. Pretty simple. LA has only lost to the Rams and Chiefs this season. The Browns did not get a touchdown until the 4th quarter. Melvin Gordon had 3 touchdowns and Tyrell Williams had 2 touchdowns. The Chargers had 246 rushing yards, which is the most for them in the past 10 seasons. The Browns still have not won back-2-back games since 2014. Chargers play the Titans next. Browns play the Bucs.

The Jets covered and beat the Colts. I bet the Jets because they looked dominant at home last week and the Colts don’t have the offensive firepower without Hilton and Doyle. Ebron has already set a career high with 6 touchdowns on the season. Terrelle Pryor and Jermaine Kearse played solid on the outside for the Jets. Sam Darnold looks like a great pick. Should the Giants have taken him? Saquon is a beast though. I like this Jets team more than I should.

The Seahawks were the easiest cover I have bet in a long time. Derek Carr is just not that great. Carr had 142 passing yards, 138.6 of them were from yards after catch. Gruden is not a good coach, the league seems to have passed him by since he coached last. His vertigo got to him in London I assume. Seattle’s defense showed up in a big way. Both of these teams have BYEs this week.

Speaking of easy covers, my Ravens -2.5 wager won as they shutout the Titans 21-0. Marcus Mariota got sacked more time than he had completions. Baltimore had 11 sacks and Mariota had 10 completions. That is a franchise record for sacks in a game for the Ravens. Alex Collins had 2 solid touchdown runs. Michael Crabtree had 6 catches for 93 yards along with a touchdown. Tennessee has a terrible offense.

The Steelers have beat the Bengals in 7 straight games including the playoffs. JuJu has had the best 20 games to start a career for any Pittsburgh wideout ever. Antonio Brown has a receiving touchdown in 4 straight games, which ties a career record for him. Tyler Boyd is a solid receiver that compliments AJ Green nicely. Both of these teams will be fighting for the AFC North all season.

The Cowboys smacked the Jags thanks to Connor McGregor. People were saying Jason Garrett should have been fired. Jerry Jones don’t care. This win bought Garrett two more season prolly. The Rams won, but the Broncos had a solid backdoor cover in the cold weather. The Redskins beat the Panthers. Carolina and DJ Moore had too many turnovers. Cam Newton and Norv Turner had the chance to win the game, but went for the touchdown instead of securing a first down in the redzone first. The Patriots beat the Chiefs. The last time the Pats lost when leading by 14+ at halftime was in 1987 to John Elway. Tom Brady became the first QB to win 200 regular season games. Sony Michel now has 100+ yards a touchdown in 3 straight games. Tyreek Hill had 7 catches for 142 yards and 3 touchdowns. Man is fast.

DeAndre Hopkins and the Texans took care of the business and beat the Bills. The Dolphins beat the Bears in overtime. All abroad the Brocketship. Dolphins had the most yards in a game (541) since that Dan Marino guy played. Frank Gore was the first 100 rusher the Bears have allowed this season. Frank Gore. It is 2018. The mans might play till he is 50. Brock has won games for three different teams, Denver, Houston, and now Miami. His first win for all 3 teams was against the Bears. Maybe Chicago needs to complete a heist on The Heist.

Aaron Jones has 1+ rushing touchdown at +130 for 2 units.

Aaron Jones over 55 rushing yards at -133 for 3 units. Jones is averaging over 6 yards a carry this season. I think the Packers get up and run the ball in this one. Jones did not go off last game because the Lions got up on Green Bay and game flow limited him. Jones had 60 yards the last time the Packers blew someone out (Buffalo) and that was his first game back from suspension. I think his role increases tonight and he has the best game of his season so far.

Packers over 27.5 points at -120 for 2 units. Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay get 4 touchdowns in this one. CJ Beathard and the 49ers offense will give Green Bay some good field position via turnovers and Rodgers takes advantage of this.

21-21-3 on NFL down 2.07 units

I was very right about Saquon Barkley rushing for more than 63 yards. Barkley had 130 yards rushing to go along with 99 receiving yards. I was very wrong about the Giants being able to win the game. It seems every time the ball is in Saquon’s hands, the Giants gain 7 yards or more. Every time it is in Eli’s hands, they gain a few yards if they are lucky. A three and out when they don’t run the ball once with Barkley is excruciating. Congrats to the Eagles. They will most likely win that trash division.

Life is too short not to send it. Going big on NFL today.

Ravens -2.5 at -115 for 7 units. Public is on the Titans, but the line keeps going up for the Ravens. The “duffle bag bettors” are placing their wagers on the Ravens and so will I. The Ravens are just better than the Titans. Joe Flacco has been playing well this season. John Brown will have a good game now that Denzel Ward is not covering him. No offense to Malcom Butler, but John Brown is too quick for him. Baltimore’s defense allows less than 16 points a game. Baltimore averages over 100 more yards a game on offense than the Titans. Dean Pees is the defensive coordinator for the Titans now, but he retired with the Ravens in January. Joe Flacco will know some of his tendencies and vice versa. I think Baltimore’s defensive front 7 will be too much for Mariota. Ravens win by a touchdown or more.

Jets -2.5 at -108 for 7 units. No TY Hilton and Jack Doyle for the Colts. Jets defense will be able to stop the run, which will put a lot of pressure on Andrew Luck’s shoulders. Throwing to Ryan Grant and Chester Rogers doesn’t scare me (Eric Ebron is pretty damn good though). Colts give up over 100 yards rushing a game and that will continue today. Public is on the Colts, gotta love fading the public. Jets are missing some players on defense like Buster Skrine, but they will get enough stops to cover this one.

Seahawks -2.5 at -110 for 7 units. London Game. Coach Gruden gets sick going on flights. Oakland’s sickly head coach hurts them. Derek Carr has not played well this season as he has 8 interceptions so far. Coming into this week, Oakland has given up the second most points in the league at 149 points against. Seattle has looked solid the past 3 weeks. Raiders haven’t looked solid all season. These London games are always a little fishy, but I am going to bet on the team with the better QB and the better coach.

Chargers at +110 for 1 unit. Chargers have only lost to the Chiefs and the Rams this season. Those are the two best teams in the NFL so far. I will take the Chargers as an underdog against the Browns. The Browns are talented, but their head coach is awful. Hue “2” Jackson is holding his fingers up and his team back. Melvin Gordon is a beast. Phil Rivers has been playing his best football in recent years. The Chargers gave the Browns their only win in 2016, and struggled to beat them last year. San Diego won’t take this team for granted. Mike Williams should have a day with Denzel Ward guarding Keenan Allen.

20-20 on college football down 4.33 units

Virginia Tech -6.5 for 7 units. Steven Peoples, Virginia Tech’s running back, is going to go off for the Hokies. UNC has one of the worst run defenses in the country, allowing 209.3 rushing yards a game. Nathan Elliot makes too many mistakes at QB for UNC. He seems to have a little bit of Eli Manning arm – as in he doesn’t throw the ball downfield with a lot of conviction. Tar Heels have the worst turnover margin in college football. Carolina’s defense allows 44% of third down conversions.. not good. It is a night game in Chapel Hill, and that is the only thing keeping me from making this a max play. Hokies cover.

Florida at -300 for 3 units. The Gators win this one and move their win streak up to 5 games. Florida’s defense is just too strong for Vandy, they already have 20 sacks on the season. Vanderbilt has not looked great against SEC competition and that continues today.

Alabama -28 for 2 units. Bama at home at night. Not going to overthink Bama missing Trevin Diggs and their secondary not being at full strength. Mizzou is talented, but Alabama will score 50 or more tonight.

20-20-3 on NFL down 2.07 units

Giants +1 for 3 units. If Kirk Cousins can look good against the Eagles so can Eli. Manning made some good throws last week, besides the interceptions. Odell will get his. Both teams are in must win mode here. Olivier Vernon is back for the Giants tonight. That will help their pass rush. Giants did well to make it a game against the Panthers after Odell’s muffed punt. Eagles seem like they are in a funk.

Saquon Barkley over 63 rushing yards at +100 for 3 units. Eagles only give up 2.78 yards a rush, but the weather coupled with Barkley’s athleticism will be enough to push this over. Eagles run defense is so “good” because they have played the Vikings, Titans, Colts, Buccaneers, and Falcons. Atlanta is the only team in that group with running backs that scare you. Barkley will eat. I think Saquon gets his first career game with over 20 carries in this one.

Michael Thomas got into it on twitter with Josh Norman last night. Norman said “he wouldn’t waste his breath […] He is not worthy of it. He will never be worthy of it.” Norman tweeted that Thomas was “clout chasing” in since deleted tweets. This made Thomas go off more than I have ever seen him go off.

He tweeted things like “Zone Corner, play your role. Lol you don’t even have no clout to chase. I didn’t have to do nothing but punk you all day and watch you bust coverages all game and cost your team so who really a clown. And im going to bully you every time i see you just so you know”

“You corny for deleting your tweets @J_No24 we grown man walk it like you talk it. Goof ball con artist”

And my personal favorite “You my son, go to bed son. I was punking you all night give me a break. @ your coach so he can put your so called tough guy self in timeout again ”

It seems the Saints won on the football field and on twitter. Brees broke the all-time passing record that Peyton Manning had for about 1000 days. Peyton congratulated Drew in a very Peyton way. Pretty funny. The Saints won the game 43-19 and are leading the NFC South. Mark Ingram came back from his suspension with two touchdowns to give Alvin Kamara a much needed break. Saints play at the Ravens, at the Vikings, and then at home vs the Rams. Those 3 games will go a long way in telling us if this New Orleans team can win a super bowl this season.

Redskins are still leading their division too and 2-2. Washington has the 4th fewest points against in the league. If their defense can prove this game was an outlier, they could very well win their division. Adrian Peterson’s injuries were not too serious and they have some talent on offense. I would not bet against the Redskins winning the division.

The Bills beat the Titans in a game that saw one touchdown and 6 field goals. Shady McCoy broke out of his slump and led Buffalo in rushing and receiving yards with 108 total yards on the day. Josh Allen did not do too much through the air, but got a rushing touchdown and his team the victory. Mariota’s box score looks bad, but he actually played well. His offensive line and wideouts did nothing to help him. Henry ran the ball well, but something is off with this Tennessee offense and I think it starts with the offensive line. LT Taylor Lewan got hurt in this game and did not return. His absence could really hurt the Tennessee offense going forward.

The Jets steamrolled the Broncos. Denver just couldn’t get over last week’s close loss to the Chiefs coupled with the long travel east on a short week. New York had 323 yards rushing with Crowell getting 219 of those yards. Keenum threw a touchdown pass on the Broncos second possession to go up 7-0, but it was all downhill from there. I can’t figure out why Vance Joseph and the Broncos do not run the ball more. The only ran the ball 17 times in this one, but both of their running backs averaged over 5 yards a carry (and have averaged this all season). Denver’s Bradley Roby played horrible and was not at the team facility Monday. Broncos need to turn it around quickly if they want to save Joseph’s job and make the playoffs… too bad they play the Rams this week.

The Rams beat the Seahawks 33-31 behind Gurley’s 3 touchdowns. LA’s corners got burnt in this game. Russell Wilson had a solid game, but it looked to me more of a problem with the Rams than anything special Seattle did. Earl Thomas was missed. Seattle’s strategy seems to be to run the ball a lot to keep the opposing team’s offense off the field. It worked well in this game, just wasn’t quite enough. Cooks and Cooper both left the game early, but LA’s offense was still fun to watch. This Rams team is good, but they have a fairly easy schedule.. I just don’t see them winning the Super Bowl just yet, even though they are the favorites in Vegas. Their lack of outside pass rush and lockdown corners worries me come playoff time.

The other 33-31 scoreline of the day featured the Panthers beating the Giants behind Gano’s career-long 63 yard field goal. Eli seemed to force the ball to Odell a lot, which I like more than not throwing to him for long stretches of a game. Carolina still leads the NFL in rushing yards per game at 154 yards and that was the difference in this one (besides the refs). Giants only had 50 yards rushing. Barkley is silly good. I think he will be the best running back in the league very soon. Step aside, Gurley, Bell, and Kamara. The Panthers seem to give up outside runs a little too easily, but that will most likely change with Thomas Davis coming back from his suspension. Panthers need to get more pressure on the QB if they want to make another Super Bowl run. Thomas Davis, Curtis Samuel, and Greg Olsen all playing will help them. D.J. Moore is freaky athletic, expect to see him a lot more over the second half of the season. Eric Reid took a knee during the anthem, but he looked solid on the field and will only get better once he keeps building chemistry in this secondary.

The Bengals were down 17-3 to the Dolphins after 3 quarters, but ended up winning 27-17. Cincy got a fumble return touchdown and an interception return touchdown in the 4th quarter. A.J. Green passed Chad “Ochocinco” Johnson for most 100 yard games in team history with 32. Vontaze Burfict returned for the Bengals and was second on the team in tackles. Adam Gase could prolly be better at his job, it is tough calling plays without Peyton Manning making you look good. Joe Mixon is a beast, but staying on the field is his biggest problem. Tyler Boyd is solid as well. This Bengals offense reminds me of 2015 when they had Sanu, Green, and Marvin Jones. Andy Dalton will be a top 10 fantasy QB by season’s end. Will the Bengals hold on to win the division?

The Steelers and Antonio Brown beat the Falcons 41-17. Atlanta just doesn’t have a defense due to all the injuries. James Connor went off. Pittsburgh dominated the line of scrimmage and doubled Julio Jones all day. Ito Smith might be the best running back on the Falcons. It seems everytime he touches the ball he gets 8 yards. If the Steelers play like this every week, they will make the playoffs.

The Chiefs beat the Jags, even though Jacksonville was talking a bunch of junk midweek. Mahomes was a foot or two off on some big plays to Tyreek Hill. Chiefs might have the best offensive line in football. Bortles looked atrocious. T.J. Yeldon looked solid and seems to be a capable #1 as long as Fournette is still made of Legos. Kansas City plays the Patriots next week. Ramsey said “I won the majority of matchups today, put it that way.” Your team just lost holmes, be a little more humble.

The Lions beat the Packers 31-23. Mason Crosby missed 5 kicks in the game (4 field goals and one XP). Kenny Golladay is the real deal. I always look at players that get touchdowns seemingly every time they touch the ball as rookies to have high ceilings. Odell, Barkley, David Johnson, and Tarik Cohen remind me of Golladay’s rookie season last year in that way. Davante Adams is one of the best wideouts in the league as far as I am concerned. Slay didn’t stand a chance. Aaron Jones and Kerryon Johnson should get more touches as the season progresses.

The Browns got another win!! Hue Jackson is not a good coach though. This game featured 5 field goals and one touchdown. Njoku and Baker Mayfield are damn good. Denzel Ward shut down John Brown (5 catches on 14 targets). Jarvis Landry gets a lot of targets from Baker and I expect him to start catching more of them. Cleveland seems to have one of the best defenses in the league. Browns lead the league in takeaways with 15, they had 13 all of last season. Cleveland needs to clean up their penalties, they had 10 more in this game. The Ravens have a solid defense too, but they need to beat the Titans next week if they want to win this division.

The Chargers beat the Raiders handily. Derek Carr looked awful. Jared Cook is big. Phil Rivers looks great this season. Cardinals got their first win of the season against the 49ers. Mike McCoy sucks at calling plays. If McCoy would play David Johnson in the slot one time this season I would venmo him $10. Chandler Jones was dominant. CJ Bethard is a backup NFL QB at best. 49ers lost Breida and starting center Weston Richburg in this one – not good.

The Vikings gave the Eagles their first home loss of the season. Minnesota still struggled to run the ball, but Philly does have a solid run defense. Thielen and Diggs are great and should be started by all their fantasy owners every week. Minnesota’s defense looked a lot better this week than they have all season. The Eagles seem to be stuck in their hangover, luckily they play in a weak division. Should Foles or Wentz start? Eagles have to beat the Giants on Thursday because their schedule gets tough after that (Panthers and then at Jacksonville).

If you like bad offenses, the Texans and Cowboys tickled your fancy. I am tired of the Cowboys being in primetime games. Cowboys suck at calling plays and scheme. Texans suck in the redzone. I don’t think either of these teams will make the playoffs, but if I had to pick one, it would be the Texans. Hopkins, Fuller, and Keke are all explosive, but O’Brien does not seem to be helping them out with the play calls. How 5 drives stall inside the 30 yard line is beyond me.

20-20-3 on NFL down 2.07 units

Still have these season bets pending:

Panthers over 8.5 wins for 8 units.

Patriots win AFC at +200 for 3 units.

Panthers win NFC at +2100 for 2 units.

Saints win NFC at +575 for 2 units.

Going to make some division winner bets today.

Panthers at +200 for 2 units. Panthers are getting healthy and they have an easier schedule than the Saints. This division is a coin-flip between the Saints and the Panthers for me. I will take a 50/50 chance at +200 all day. Saints have lost at home to the Buccaneers, while the Panthers have lost at the Falcons. Panthers play @Redskins, @Eagles, Ravens, @Steelers, @Lions, Seahawks, @Browns, and then all division games. Saints have a slightly tougher schedule @Ravens, @Vikings, Rams, @Bengals, Eagles, @Cowboys, Steelers, and then their division games.

Jaguars at -125 for 4 units. Colts, Texans, and Titans don’t scare me. Jacksonville should win their next two games against the Cowboys and Texans and these odds will get worse. The hardest game on the rest of their schedule is the Steelers at home. This one seems a little too easy.

17-18-3 on NFL down 3.68 units

Steelers -3.5 for 2 units. Big Ben at home. Falcons don’t have a secondary due to injuries, not that Pittsburgh has a great secondary either. Highest over/under of the day at 57. Start your fantasy players in this one. I don’t think the Falcons will be able to stop JuJu and Antonio Brown in this one.

Bengals -6 for 4 units. Dolphins looked awful last week vs the Pats. Andy Dalton is having a solid season. Tyler Boyd is his new favorite target. Cincy’s only loss is to a solid Panthers team in Carolina. This is Miami’s first game without their center Daniel Kilgore. The Bengals should be able to get some pressure up the middle against Tannehill, which will lead to errant passes and hopefully an interception.

Cardinals +3 for 3 units. Now or never.

Eagles -3 for 4 units. Vikings have not looked good and the Eagles will take advantage. The Vikings have not been able to run the ball and that has hurt them the past two weeks. Philly has one of the better run defenses in the league. Philly had over 450 yards against Minnesota last time they played. Anthony Barr can’t cover Ertz.

Eagles/Vikings over 47 for 3 units. I expect some big plays in this one. Philly got up 17-3 last week against the Titans and then slowed down. They will keep the pedal to the metal in this one.

19-15 on college football up 9.11 units

This write-up would be better, but Lil Baby and Gunna’s Drip Too Hard video had me feeling some type of way.

Syracuse -3 for 6 units. My prediction for this game is Syracuse wins by 14. Pittsburgh is ass at football. They lost to UNC. There are 50 quarterbacks in high school better than any QB on North Carolina’s roster. Pittsburgh have to win this game for Pat Narduzzi to keep his job… they won’t.

Michigan State -10 for 3 units. This is not the most talented Michigan State team, but they will do enough here. Mark and MSU will get it done. MSU’s o line is back to being healthy and they will show out with the run game during this game. Northwestern has lost 3 straight games and they need this win much like Pittsburgh… but they won’t get it.

Oklahoma -7 for 2 units. Red River Shootout.. wait it is 2018.. Red River Two Teams That Dislike Each Other. Texas have covered the last 5. They won’t cover this one. Kyler Murray, Kennedy Brooks, and Marquise Brown will be too much for the Longhorns.

LSU -2 for 2 units. Coach O Baby!! These teams hate each other. LSU has looked better this year. This is strictly an eye test bet.

Auburn at -165 for 2 units. Mississippi State has shown me nothing this season that makes me want to bet them – even at night at home. Auburn has the better offense and the better special teams. Mississippi State has solid offensive stats, but those numbers are inflated due to playing Stephen F Austin (who is actually a good basketball school), KSU, and ULL. State has only gained 403 yards in their past two games combined scoring a total of 13 points. Bet Auburn.

NC State at -220 for 1 unit. Boston College has to travel to Raleigh. The Wolfpack will be ready. State is 3-1 ATS this season. State has a better QB and a better defense, not going to overthink this one.

17-15 on college football up 4.86 units

Alabama had the cover at halftime against ULL, but ended up not covering. That is a bad beat. Clemson barely snuck out a win over Syracuse with Trevor Lawrence getting hurt. He should be good to go against Wake Forest. WVU dominated the first half at Texas Tech and staved off the Red Raider comeback. Texas dominated the first half against KSU and held on for the win. Florida beat a ranked Mississippi State team. Virginia Tech got over their ODU loss and beat a ranked duke team. My favorite website. LSU rolled over Ole Miss.

In the game of the week, Ohio State came back from down 12 in the 4th quarter to beat Penn State in front of the largest crowd in Beaver Stadium history. Trace McSorley is pretty damn good for Penn State. He is fun to watch. Penn State will have to beat Michigan, Michigan State, and Wisconsin (along with all their other games) if they want to have a chance at the playoff now.

Georgia Tech at -212 for 5 units. Georgia Tech has the better offense and the better defense. Lamar Jackson covered up a lot of Louisville’s deficiencies last season, he plays for the Baltimore Ravens now. Is Joe Flacco elite? The Yellow Jackets rush for 339 yards per game and they will wear the Cardinals down. Louisville scores a measly 18 points a game. Georgia Tech’s loses were due to penalties and fumbles, but they seemed to have fixed that against Bowling Green. GT averages 2 interceptions a game and Jawon Pass has thrown the 5th most interceptions in college football for the Cardinals.

Utah State +2 for 2 units. I just can’t see why BYU is favored in this one. They looked awful last week against a good Washington team. Utah State has the better offense and the defenses are about the same. Utah State has just passed the eye test for me way more than BYU has so I will bite.