Category: Tennis

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

10-9 on tennis in 2019 down 7.89 units

Pierre-Hughes Herbert +2.5 for 4 units. Hyeon Chung lost his opening round match at Pune and Auckland before winning his opening matchup against Klahn here. Herbert is a similar, but better opponent than Klahn. Chung has a lack of fitness and consistency. I like the underdog.

Kei Nishikori -2.5 sets at +107 for 4 units. Kei is 5-0 this year. Nishikori needed 5 sets to beat Kamil Majchrzak, but him prevailing after a terrible start has to give him confidence. Karlovic is in the midst of a little career revival at age 39. His baseline game and serve are just as good if not better than they have ever been. NIshikori is 7-0 in the second round of this tournament. Nishikori’s ability to break Karlovic and make him work should give Nishikori the easy win.

Fabio Fognini -3 at -120 for 6 units. Fognini will win if his mind is right. Mayer beat Jarry in 4 sets to get his 4th win at the AO in 9 trips here. Not that great. Fognini lost to Mayer both times last year on clay, but Fognini has the advantage on this surface.

Philipp Kohlschreiber at -257 for 3 units. The German has the experience over Sousa, but the H2H is tied 2-2. Kohlschreiber has played great this season, except for his loss to Sandgren. Sousa struggles with guys that can return well. Kohlschreiber isn’t the best returner, but he is good enough.

Daniil Medvedev at -571 for 2 units. Medvedev has taken the leap to the top of tennis, Ryan Harrison hasn’t. The Russian won 80% of his first serve points last round. He’s hot.

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

5-5 on tennis in 2019 down 5.48 units

Andy Murray was defeated in 5 sets by Bautista Agut in his last Australian Open. Murray has won infinitely more Olympic Golds than Roger Federer (2-0). I hope Murray can win at least one match in Wimbledon..

Fabio Fognini at -223 for 4 units. Jaume Munar plays solid tennis, but Fognini made it to the round of 16 here last year and will want to do at least that this year. Munar won two matches in Grand Slams last year, but he is not on the same level of Fognini. Fabio can be inconsistent, but a major title should be enough to get even his attention. Fabio is one of the best tennis players in the World on his day. I enjoy watching his volatility.

Daniil Medvedev -6 at -170 for 4 units. The young South African, Lloyd George Harris doesn’t have much of a chance here. Medvedev beat Murray, Raonic, and Tsonga last week. Daniil has been one of the best young players over the past 12 months and that will continue in this tournament. Medvedev is savvy, rested, and ready. Medvedev came into the AO last year on little rest, this year he took Sydney off to be ready to claim his first victory here.

Mischa Zverev at +179 for 2 units. If Zverev is fit he will win…

Borna Coric -7 at -127 for 2 units. Coric is out of form, but Steve Darcis got beat (6-1,6-2,6-0) against Pella the last time he was in a major. Coric has lost 4 first round matches in a row here, but this is his easiest opponent by far.

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

3-2 on tennis in 2019 up 0.03 units

Stefanos Tsitsipas at -309 for 2 units. Berrettini nor Tsitsipas have been in great form so far in 2019. The only other time these two played, Stefanos won in a 3rd set tiebreak. Berrettini would have to place shots that he hasn’t placed this year to beat the Greek.

John Isner at -265 for 4 units. Isner should be more heavily favored against Opelka even though he didn’t win a match as the 1 seed last week.

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman at -704 for 4 units. Molleker doesn’t have the experience. Schwartzman’s return game is too strong.

Andrey Rublev at -215 for 3 units. Rublev is far more talented than McDonald. Rublev’s back is a concern, but that shouldn’t be a problem till later in the tournament.

Joao Sousa (+2.5 Sets) at -719 for 4 units.

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

2-2 on tennis in 2019 down 3.69 units

Alex De Minaur -1.5 sets at +134 for 3 units. Alex De Minaur, the runner-up here in Sydney last year, faces-off against Gilles Simon. Andreas Seppi is waiting in the final. Home advantage for the Australian De Minaur. De Minaur leads the H2H 1-0. De Minaur has 3 straight straight-set defeats against Dusan Lajovic, Reilly Opelka, and Jordan Thompson. Poor of the ATP to “make” these players play this close to the Australian Open starting. De Minaur has a match on Monday in a Grand Slam! Simon is 15 years older than De Minaur. Simon has an “easy” draw in the AO with Jack Sock and the injured Alexander Zverev in his way. Simon looks ahead here and rests his old body.

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

0-1 on tennis in 2019 down 4.0 units

Kevin Anderson had 8 chances to break Ivo Karlovic and he never did. Kevin Anderson won the match, but didn’t cover the -2. If Anderson wins 1 of those 8 break points, I win my bet. Just annoying to start the year 0-1 on a “good” play. Oh well. I ain’t no quitter.

Denis Kudla at -142 for 3 units. Kudla won in straight sets in his only other meeting against Garcia-Lopez. Kudla is coming off his best season. Garcia-Lopez is coming off an under .500 season. Kudla should be closer to -200.

Andrey Rublev -2 at -137 for 3 units. Andrey Rublev leads the H2H 2-0. Pouille can beat anyone in tennis on his day, but his form has been dreadful of late. Rublev does have a back problem to worry about, but he is the better player based on current form and H2H history.

Marton Fucsovics at -273 for 3 units. Duckworth doesn’t have the match fitness to compete with Fucsovics.

91-44-6 on tennis in 2018 up 42.63 units

Kevin Anderson -2 at -152 for 4 units. Jimmy Connors in 1993. Ivo Karlovic in 2019. They are both old and in a tour Final. Anderson is a much better returner and all-around player. Anderson is at home. Anderson is coming off his best season ever. Anderson should aim for Karlovic’s backhand. Karlovic is taller (6’11), but that’s about it. Shia Labeouf said it best, “Make your dreams come true. Just do it.”

90-43-6 on tennis up 42.99 units

Roger Federer -2.5 at -110 for 4 units. Center Court has a showdown on Thursday at the O2 Arena between the Swiss #1 and the South African #1. Kevin Anderson and Roger Federer are both trying to make the semi-finals… and both can. The Nishikori-Thiem matchup will clear up the situation some, but I am not going to get into all the crazy tiebreaker scenarios here like percentage of games won. Federer can guarantee moving on if he wins in straight sets. Thiem winning only a set against Nishikori would mean Anderson and Federer move on with a Federer win. The line will most likely move to -3 or -3.5 if Thiem wins a set, so get it while it is hot.

My prediction for this match involves Federer winning by limiting his unforced errors. He had over 30 against Nishikori, but only 11 in his last match against Thiem. Federer’s slice will be too much for Anderson to handle. This is Federer’s 16th time in this tournament and I think he avoids only his second group stage exit here. This is uncharted territory for Anderson. Roger gets his revenge for his loss to Anderson at Wimbledon earlier this year.

88-43-6 on tennis up 38.66 units

Novak Djokovic -4.5 at -120 for 3 units. Zverev only won 3 games when these two met last month. That was the only other meeting on this surface and Djokovic won handily. Alexander Zverev leads the H2H 2-1, but he is not in his best form of the season. Novak is in solid form. Djokovic is the best returner in the world, which has helped him earn the #1 ranking. Djokovic has won this tournament 5 times. 5! He has only lost two matches at this tournament in his career. Silly good.

Djokovic/Zverev under 21.5 at -109 for 2 units. There were 15 games the last time these two played. I expect Djokovic to dominate again.