Month: May 2018

14-9 on tennis up 1.86 units

The Internazionali BNL d’Italia (Italian Open) – Rome ATP

Isner at -178 for 2 units. Isner is in better form than Ramos-Vinolas and has a better track record in Rome. Isner won the meeting between these two in Rome last season. Isner is better on clay now than he was then. Albert Ramos has not won back 2 back matches since February. Ramos-Vinolas has never made it past this round in Rome. Isner lost in Madrid last week to eventual champion Zverev. Look for some tiebreaks here.

Thiem at -247 for 4 units. Fognini is my favorite player on the tour because of his athletic lackadaisical style of play and his emotions on the court. I do not think there is a more volatile player on the tour. Thiem ended Nadal’s record of 50 straight set wins last week in Madrid. Thiem is 2-0 against Fognini all time and 1-0 on clay. This is a home event for Fognini, but he does not play well in Rome usually. Thiem is just too consistent for Fognini. I like to think Fabio goes out drinking with his homies before these events and that is why he struggles here..

Nishikori – Dimitrov over 22.5 for 3 units. Past 4 matches between these two has gone over this number. First meeting between these two on clay and I expect a little feeling out in set 1. Both players can be broken more easily than they would like when they meet each other.

Nishikori at -135 for 2 units. Dimitrov has an advantage serving out wide vs Nishikori. If Dimitrov goes to his second serve a lot, Kei will win this match easily. Nishikori is the better player when healthy and leads the head 2 head 4-1; however, Dimitrov won the most recent meeting. Dimitrov has a terrible history in Rome for a player of the Bulgarian #1’s quality.

Schwartzman at -183 for 4 units. Diego will be happy to play Paire and not Gasquet here. Schwartzman has never won against Gasquet and never lost to Paire. Diego looked good in his last match, but so did Paire. I think Schwartzman will win most of the rallies in this match and convert enough break points. Diego has not looked too good since he won in Rio, but he seems to be back on form in Rome.

 

 

29-23-2 on NBA Playoffs up 14.06 units

Warriors still seem to be in second gear, but they still beat the Rockets in Houston by 13. Kevin Durant dropped 37 while Harden went off for 41. Harden can’t play much better than he did last night in my opinion. Klay Thompson and his postgame comments were straight class. The under should have hit, but the Rockets decided to foul down double digits with less than a minute left. Iggy made a free throw that hit front rim, backboard, back rim, and then went in with time dwindling. I’m not bitter..

Celtics win the series at +110 for 2 units.

Celtics win tonight at -110 for 4 units. Cavs have been putrid against the spread all season and that will continue tonight. You can scroll down and read my comments on Game 1 because I expect more the same here. Celtics will lockdown the perimeter shooters of Korver, Smith, and Love and Lebron will get frustrated. Lebron’s 3s and faders are highlights when they go in, but they are bad shots when they don’t. Boston’s best players can’t legally drink, but they can beat the Cavs. It really is unfair that the Celtics get extra coaching from Kyrie and Gordon when they already have Brad Stevens. What is Lue to do?

Lebron James over 33 points at -110 for 4 units. Lebron will get the foul calls tonight. King James did not put his head down and drive enough in Game 1.. he will tonight.

41-41-4 in Hockey up 8.28 units

3-0 on the past 3 NHL games.

Vegas won last night behind a solid effort from Fleury. Tomas Teter was back in the lineup (5th playoff appearance for the Knights) and his stick-to-it-ness led to the early Vegas goal. Teter adds some nice depth scoring. Jonathan Marchessault stole the show for the Golden Knights with 2 goals, but the Knights defense way the key to me. Vegas got their goals off of turnovers and solid goalie work.

Caps at -118 for 1 unit. Caps have looked so much better this series I have to take them here at low juice. The Caps fans are going to be wild after they have had to wait for this moment for a long time. A 2-0 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals is not something they are used to. Tampa has been pussyfooting around and has been shitpumped as a result. It is now or never for Tampa…

Caps – Lightning under 6 for 3 units. Lightning have to play better defense if they want to win. Tampa has given up the puck too easily which leads to fast breaks for the Caps. They have to limit those turnovers. The Lightning have to play faster and better on defense if they want to have a chance tonight and make it a series. Andrei Vasilevskiy has to play a lot better than he did last time out and I think he will. Holtby has been solid.

44-45 on MLB in 2018 down 1.85 units

2-2 yesterday up 2.26 units

Manaea beat the Red Sox again (no no-hitter this time). Patrick Corbin got his first loss of the season for the Diamondbacks. The Braves keep winning. The Giants and Reds did not want to stop scoring in the late game, but eventually the Reds stopped scoring.

Rockies at -110 for 3 units. Lyles (former Rockie) has a 6.07 ERA against the Rockies in his career. His team has lost the past 4 games he has pitched in. He has not pitched more than 5 innings this season. The Padres bullpen does not scare me and they will be needed. Rockies complete the sweep today. German Marquez has an ERA under 2 for the Rockies on the road this season as well. Also, Padres are 3-9 in day games.

Tigers at +133 for 1 unit. Indians did not look that great yesterday and now they have their worst starter in Josh Tomlin on the mound. Liriano got a loss against the Indians earlier this season, but he pitched well. This line is a little weird with how banged up the Tigers are, but I like fading Josh Tomlin.

Braves at +118 for 1 unit. Cubs had a chance to win the game yesterday with bases loaded down 1 with Kris Bryant at the pate. Bryant could not get a hit and the Cubs lost. Yu Darvish is on the mound today and he has been struggling. His stuff has not looked worse to me than past years (he still has his velocity), but his location as lacked. Darvish gives up a homer every start and I expect that to continue today. The Braves are young and hot. Nick Markakis, Ozzie Albies, and Freddie Freeman have been great this season.

Angels at +151 for 2 units. Two evenly matched teams in my opinion so I will take the underdog. Angels are 3-1 vs the Astros this season. Gerrit Cole will strikeout some Angels, but I still think they can pull this one out. Solid value with Jamie Barria on the mound for the Angels.

Mariners at -133 for 4 units. Rangers have 3 runs in their last 3 games. Mariners have better hitters (even with Cano out) and the better bullpen. The starters are similar if you look over the whole season, but Mike Leake had his best start of the season last time out for the Mariners. Mike Minor had his worst start of the season last time out for the Rangers.

Giants at -118 for 3 units. Giants are better than the Reds. Cincinnati’s sweep of the Dodgers does not impress me too much because I think the Dodgers are bad without Turner and Seager in the lineup. Giants have been playing solid baseball lately and I expect that to continue.

 

 

12-9 on tennis down 0.81 units

Schwartzman at -239 for 3 units. Schwartzman has beaten Jarry thrice in as many matches. Diego Schwartzman was struggling, but made it to the round of 16 last tournament in Madrid. I like this spot.

Kohlschreiber at -153 for 2 units. Kohlschreiber has never won against Jack Sock. I think that changes today. Sock has not won two matches in a row this calendar year. The German has been in solid form this season so I will side with him.

14-10-4 on golf in 2018 up 17.77 units

Webb Simpson dominated Sawgrass with a 63 on Friday and a tourney win. Jason Day beat Spieth and Justin Thomas like I predicted. Rose came back to tie Stenson which was a small bummer, but when your only “loss” is a push.. you can’t complain. Poulter did a lot better than Finau. Finau has had a sort of average year and is still getting too much respect from Vegas in my opinion.

Looking forward the AT&T Byron Nelson Open this weekend. It is one of only two events named after a golfer (Arnold Palmer Invitational being the other). Sergio Garcia has won it twice and Jason Day was the runner up to Billy Horschel last year. The tournament will be at a new course this year, which throws a small wrinkle into the tournament.

42-43 on MLB in 2018 down 4.11 units 

Cubs at -164 for 1 unit. Cubs bats seem to have woken up over the past week. Julio Teheran has given up a few too many home runs this season. Cubs play a lot better at home and I expect that to continue. Braves are 10-2 in day games, but their level of competition in those games was not too impressive.

Rays at +101 for 3 units. Skoglund fade. Both these teams got rocked last time out. The Rays are better than that, I am not so sure the Royals are.

Athletics at +141 for 3 units. Manaea throws against the Red Sox again. Last time he threw a no-hitter. Porcello has pitched well for the Red Sox too. I thought this game would be closer to a coin flip, so I am taking the perceived value.

Diamondbacks at -134 for 4 units. I love betting on Patrick Corbin and watching him pitch. Brewers only hit .209 vs lefties as a team. Might be too confident in this play, but Corbin hasn’t lost for me yet. Diamondbacks have lost 5 in a row, I expect that to change tonight.

40-41-4 in Hockey up 6.97 units

Caps won again as a heavy underdog. Tom Wilson got to play and got a goal. Tampa tried to set the tone and be more physical in Games 1 and 2, but it did not seem to work. Since 1975, a team with a 2-0 lead in the conference final or semifinal has a series record of 39-2. Tampa is, to quote O Brother, Where Art Thou?, “In a tight spot”.

Knights ML at +131 for 1 unit. Knights responded last round after a Game 1 loss and I expect the same here. Fleury should play a little better in this one. Vegas did not win enough faceoffs or have enough takeaways in Game 1. I think they will make the necessary adjustments in Game 2.

28-23-1 on NBA Playoffs up 11.66 units

The Celtics limited the Cavs 3-point shooting like I knew they could (Cavs were 15.4% from 3). When Lebron can’t find the passing lanes, he gets frustrated and starts taking poor 3s. Marcus Smart had his typical 4-12 shooting, but a +16 plus/minus. Al Horford has turned back the clock and Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are too nice for their age.

Warriors at +105 for 2 units. Warriors at plus money is almost too easy. If they lose this game, I will double down on them next game. Steph should be close to 100%. Rockets won the regular season series, but I do not think that matters too much.

Warriors – Rockets under 225 for 1 unit. Both these teams closed the season well on defense. I do not think the Rockets will be ready for KD, Draymond, and Klay on defense. Warriors have only let up more than 104 points once at home these playoffs. I expect them to lockdown Harden and make everyone else beat them.