Month: May 2018

Uncategorized

NBA Playoffs May 19th

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32-25-2 on NBA Playoffs up 19.85 units

Celtics +6.5 for 2 units. Just going to keep riding the Celtics. Defense travels. The Cavs 3-point shooters will shoot better at home, but I expect a close game here. Lebron knows he has to win this game if he wants to stay alive these playoffs. If this game was Thursday I would have bet the Celtics harder, but the days off will help the Cavs regroup more than it will help the Celtics. Brad Stevens is just a lot better of a coach than Lue (obviously).

Cavs – Celtics over 205 for 2 units. Neither game has gone over this number, but I think the first game in The Land will.

Kevin Love over 19 points at -110 for 2 units. Kevin Love had 22 last game and he usually shoots well at home. His 3 has looked pretty silky this series even though he only went 2-6 last game from deep. Lebron will need help from someone if they want to stay alive and Love is the prime candidate.

Kyle Korver over 11 points at -112 for 2 units. Korver had 11 last game. I think he will drain some 3s back in The Land. This is more of a gut feeling than anything.

JR Smith under 12 points for 2 units. I think the Celtics know they can’t let him going and he will get frustrated like we saw last game. Smith could always get hot and make some ridiculous 3s, but I like this play.

Uncategorized

Tennis May 19th

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23-11-1 on tennis up 7.01 units

Zverev -229 for 2 units. This is Cilic’s first-ever semifinal in a Masters clay event. Zverev finally lost a set to Goffin, but he still came out on top in the match. Zverev is 1-0 vs Cilic on clay and 4-1 overall. Alexander Zverev could be a little more fatigued than Cilic, but I still think he pulls this one out. These are two strong servers, but Zverev is stronger basically everywhere else on the tennis court.

Golf

Golf – Byron Nelson Round 2

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14-10-4 on golf in 2018 up 17.77 units

Marc Leishman over Adam Scott at -120 for 4 units. Scott shot a -4 in the first round, while Leishman shot a -10. This is the first time this tournament has been played at this course and Leishman is clearly in a comfort zone on it. Leishman could have done even better, but he missed some putts (a ten footer mainly). He was one stroke off the course record! I may be overreacting, but this is just too much value to pass up.

Tennis

Tennis May 17th

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20-12-1 on tennis down 0.13 units

The Internazionali BNL d’Italia (Italian Open) – Rome ATP

Nadal -6 at +103 for 2 units. Fognini can beat anyone if he is on his game and is one of the few players that has bested Nadal multiple times on clay. Fognini is 2-5 in his career vs Nadal on clay. Nadal looked great in his second set against Shapovalov and I expect that to carry over. Fognini may get frustrated here if he gets broken early and if that happens this will cover easy. Nadal has not moved past this stage here in Rome in the past 3 seasons. He knows this and he will get passed it today. Fognini can beat anyone on his day, but I expect Nadal to be dialed in.

Pablo Carreno Busta +2.5 for 1 unit at +105. Carreno Busta has lost to Cilic every time he has played him, but none of those have been on clay. The clay favors Carreno Busta slightly. This would be a larger play, but Carreno Busta played a 3 hour match yesterday. Cilic has not looked all that great since his marriage and I think Busta can sneak out a set at least in this one.

Djokovic at -165 for 5 units. Djokovic has won all his matches this week in straight sets. Djokovic has won 11 straight over Nishikori. The Joker always seems to get the points when he needs them against Nishikori. Kohlschreiber is just not as athletic as Nishikori, but Djokovic may be. If it is a forehand battle, Djokovic will win. Nishikori does not have a strong enough serve to beat Djokovic in my opinion.

Zverev at -195 for 6 units. Going to keep riding the hottest player on the tour at the moment. Zverev has now won 20 straight sets on clay. Goffin is just not on the same level even though he forced Del Potro to retire in the last round. Goffin won the last meeting between these two, but Goffin is 0-1 vs Zverev on clay.

Hockey/Uncategorized

NHL Playoffs May 17th

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42-43-5 in Hockey up 8.51 units

4-1 on picking the winner in the past 5 NHL games. Missed the under last night by 2 seconds. Can’t be mad at Marchessault for scoring on the empty net though, that is what he is paid to do. I am sure it made a lot of Vegas fans and the over backers happy. The Golden Knights went up a goal early, then the Jets tied, then the Knights went up 2 goals. The Jets dominated the 3rd period after coach Paul Maurice went off on his players. Byfuglien separated the meddling kids in the 3rd period (he is a strong man). Knights do not win that game without Fleury. 

Caps ML at -116 for 3 units. Caps can’t lose both games in Washington.. can they? Caps got outhit and outshot in Game 3, but I think they respond well tonight. Ovechkin and the Caps will get out to another early lead like they did the first two games this series. I honestly believe whoever wins this game, wins the series. Caps got down 3-0 last game, but they still played well in the 3rd period and only lost 4-2. Stamkos said the Lightning played with a lot more “structure” in Game 3, I expect the Caps to make the necessary adjustments tonight. Holtby can’t play much worse than he did last game and the Caps still only lost by 2.

Caps – Lightning under 6 for 1 unit. I think we get a more even game they we have got all series tonight. I expect a 3-2 or 4-2 win for the Caps. Every game has either hit this total or gone over, I think we get an under tonight. Holtby only had 19 saves last game while allowing 4 goals for the first time this postseason. I think he gets back on track tonight.

 

Baseball

MLB May 17th

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50-51 on MLB in 2018 up 3.11 units

4-2 yesterday and went up 3.98 units

Pivetta struck out 11 in the Phillies win over the Orioles. The Pirates completed the season sweep of the White Sox. Trevor Bauer struck out 10 in his shutout of the Tigers. Lance Lynn got another loss on the season, but this time it was against the team he won a World Series with (Cardinals). Blue Jays shitpumped the Mets. Bartolo Colon got a win and hit in his stomach. Colon said “his belly can take it”. Gennet is still raking for the Reds as they keep winning (even though they are 15-29). Chris Sale and the Red Sox avoided the sweep vs the Athletics. Verlander got his 8th career complete game shutout and struck out Shohei Ohtani for his 2,500 K. Also, the Braves young players are good, like real good.

Pirates at -143 for 2 units. Padres just are not very good. Eric Lauer gave up 6 earned runs in 2.1 innings his last time out. Pirates are averaging over 5 runs a game in their last 5 games. Pirates have a better team BA, ERA, BAA, OBP, and slugging percentage.

Blue Jays at -112 for 2 units. Toronto’s bats woke up yesterday and now they get to face Andrew Triggs. The Nashville native Triggs has given up a lot of home runs this season and I expect that to continue tonight. I expect a high scoring game, but the 9.5 number is tough to call on the over/under.

Angels at -167 for 4 units. Chris Archer has been bad this season. Archer will be up 0-2 in a count and hang a slider. His numbers are not awful, but they should be a lot better for a guy of his ability. Archer just lacks consistency. Angels will take advantage of that lack of consistency tonight. Angels are coming out of a tough series with the Astros and playing the Rays will be a breath of fresh air (not that the Rays are bad, Astros are just great). Tyler Skaggs has given up only 2 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts, but they have all been losses for the Angels. I think Skaggs gets back on the winning track tonight.

Tigers at +160 for 2 units. Matthew Boyd last pitched against the Mariners and Marco Gonzales last pitched against the Tigers. They both take the mound tonight for their respective teams. Boyd gave up 3 hits last time he faced the Mariners. Gonzales gave up 10 hits last time he faced the Tigers. I’ll let you decided which team won that matchup. This line is fishy and usually I would zag and take the Mariners, but I am zigging tonight.

Rockies at +125 for 1 unit. Rockies have struggled to hit the ball this season away from home, but Jeff Samardzija may be the remedy they need. Samardzija has given up 5 earned runs in his last two starts. Samardzija has not pitched well since 4/20. Rockies are an impressive 16-9 on the road. Chad Bettis has been great since he recovered from cancer. Cancer can go to hell. Bettis struggled last time out, but he has only given up 5 earned runs in 5 road starts.

Tennis

Tennis May 17th

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16-10 on tennis down 3.56 units

The Internazionali BNL d’Italia (Italian Open) – Rome ATP

Thiem and Schwartzman let me down. Thiem had twice as many double faults as aces in his loss to Fognini. Thiem had landed only 55% of his first serves compared to Fognini’s 71%. Schwartzman won the first set and was up a break in the second set before blowing the second set and getting blown out in the third set to Paire. Schwartzman is now 4-5 on European clay this season, but should still be a career high top 12 seed at Roland Garros.

Fabio Fognini at -420 for 3 units. Peter Gojowczyk has never done this well on clay. Peter was on a 6 match losing streak before Rome. Fognini is the better player on clay and is at home. Fognini can beat anyone, even himself, but I like him to move on here.

Aljaz Bedene +2 for 3 units. Bedene has won the last two matches over Carreno-Busta on clay, but they were close. Bedene should be well-rested after Kevin Anderson retired against him in the last round. Bedene is playing the best tennis of his career in 2018 and I expect that to continue.

Bedene : Carreno-Busta over 22 for 4 units. Every match they have ever played has gone over this number.

Juan Martin Del Potro at -138 for 3 units. Goffin has not been in the best form lately. These two have never met on clay. David Goffin had a tough time against Marco Cecchinato in round 2. Del Potro is a lot better than Cecchinato. Del Potro is the stronger, offensive player, while Goffin is the better returner. Del Potro would do best to attack away from Goffin’s body on his serve as Goffin is crafty. Goffin lost to Edmund in Madrid and Del Potro has a similar, but better style of play to Edmund.

Shapovalov +7 for 1 unit. Nadal wants revenge on Shapovalov for when the young Canadian #1 beat him in Canada. It is tough betting against Nadal on clay, but Shapovalov is playing the best tennis of his career.

Alexander Zverev at -270 for 8 units. Riding the hot hand here. Zverev has won 18 straight sets on clay. This would be a lot more impressive if Nadal didn’t just win 50 straight sets on clay.

Kei Nishikori at -179 for 3 units. Kei should be able to get past Kohlschreiber here. Kei has never lost to Philipp. If Kei is healthy he will win this match (big if). Jack Sock did not test Kohlschreiber in the last round, but I expect Nishikori to be a lot more consistent than Sock. Nishikori is a better athlete and the better returner so I like him here.

 

 

Basketball

NBA Playoffs May 16th

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31-23-2 on NBA Playoffs up 21.03 units

Lebron James went off in the first half, then the Cavs sucked in the 2nd half. The Celtics turned it on, Rozier is fun to watch. J.R. Smith’s unnecessary shove on Al Horford late in the game summed up Cleveland’s frustrations well. Seemed like the Cavs were just standing there on defense in the second half. I still think the Celtics win this series and steal one in The Land. Celtics fans will be able to say they made Lebron leave for the Heat, and made Lebron leave for the team TBD. The Celtics win the series bet at plus money is still alive and well. Celtics to win the series has moved to -220…

Warriors +2 for 3 units. Best basketball team ever at +2 seems too easy. Warriors were in second gear it felt like in Game 1. I think they have another level to go up. The Rockets just don’t have the perimeter defense to guard Klay and Steph (nobody can guard KD). Ryan Anderson has been cold since his return from injury. Nene is getting minutes for the Rockets and KD was pissed when Kerr took him out when Nene was guarding him. I don’t think James Harden can play much better than he did in Game 1. The refs will most likely be on the Rockets side so the NBA can extend this series, but the Warriors are good enough to overcome that.

Trevor Ariza over 10 points at -108 for 3 units. Ariza was in foul trouble in Game 1 and only played 23 minutes. He still had 8 points. I think with added minutes he gets over this low number. Ariza averaged almost 12 points a game on the season and the Rockets will need his 3 point shooting if they want to win tonight.

Clint Capela over 15 points +106 for 1 unit. The Rockets have to find more ways to get Capela involved against the Warriors small ball lineup if they want to win. Playing Nene does not work. Capela had the best plus/minus for any Houston starter in Game 1 and I think he will get more than 30 minutes tonight.

Golf

Golf – AT&T Byron Nelson

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14-10-4 on golf in 2018 up 17.77 units

Just going with guys who are underdogs in their head 2 head matchups but more likely to win the whole tournament according to Vegas. This is the first time this tournament has been played here (Trinity Forest) so who knows what plays well on this course. Just going with value plays.

Satoshi Kodaira over John Huh at +110 for 2 units. Kodaira is the better player at plus money. Easy play here.

Andrew Putnam over Seamus Power at -110 for 3 units. Putnam has solid driving accuracy and hits a lot of greens in regulation. Seamus is a solid putter, but he may not hit enough fairways on this links style course.

Maverick McNealy over Sam Saunders at +115 for 2 units. Maverick has the better name and is +9300 while Saunders is +10000 to win the tournament.

Billy Horschel over Marc Leishman at +140 for 2 units. These two have the same odds to win the tournament, so I will side with the underdog in this matchup. They have similar FedEx Cup points. Horschel is better at putting and off the tee in 2018, but Leishman has the better recovery.

Beau Hossler over Charles Howell III at +105 for 4 units. Hossler got 2nd at the Houston Open and is a solid putter. Howell III is better at driving, but I like how well Hossler played in Texas this year. Hossler is +2200 to win the tournament, while Howell is only +4200

Baseball

MLB May 16th

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46-49 on MLB in 2018 down 0.87 units

2-4 yesterday but went up 0.90 units

Rockies only got one hit against Jordan Lyles in the Padres win. Tigers came back from 4 down to beat the Indians. Syndergaard and the Mets got another win. Alex Wood and the Dodgers got another loss. Altuve got a weak 3 RBI double to beat the Angels. Heredia had a walk off for the Mariners the day the 80 game Cano suspension was laid out.

Pirates at -173 for 4 units. Pirates going for the season sweep of the White Sox today. The White Sox have lost all 10 games Hector Santiago has pitched in this season. Pirates are just better than the White Sox across the board.

Cardinals at -112 for 2 units. Mikolas has not lost a game all season for the Cardinals. St. Louis has lost 2 in a row, I think that changes today. Lance Lynn just gives up too many baserunners for the Twins.

Rays at -109 for 1 unit. Jason Hammel fade.

Diamondbacks at +103 for 1 unit.

Diamondbacks – Brewers over 8.5 for 1 unit. Brandon Woodruff fade. Brewers are only 5-10 in day games. Woodruff gave up 7 runs in 3 innings his last time out. Arizona has the second highest elevation for an MLB ballpark. Both these teams are injured, but I like the over.

Athletics at +233 for 1 unit. Value play. Chris Sale is good, but Trevor Cahill has been solid for the A’s this season. Red Sox are not as hot as earlier in the season. Boston strikeouts too much for my liking. Oakland’s bullpen has been impressive this season.