Month: November 2018

Football

Saints at Cowboys on TNF

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53-38-4 on the NFL up 44.76 units

Saints -7 for 3 units. Cowboys barely beat the Colt McCoy led Redskins, now they play the MVP Drew Brees. Vander Esch and Smith are good, but they ain’t stopping Kamara. I can’t take a team playing the Saints in a dome after how good the Saints have looked since Week 2 (Bucs beating the Saints or Bills smacking the Vikings a bigger surprise this season?) I know Dallas plays well at home. I know Dallas has a solid defensive front 7. I know Dallas has Elliot and Cooper. This Saints team is too good though. I expect Kamara and Ingram to keep Elliot off the field. The Cowboys don’t have the ability to sustain drives like the Saints do and that will show up tonight. Everyone is on New Orleans tonight, but if we all lose, I know I bet the better team.

Soccer

Sevilla’s Teams and Zenit in Europa League

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61-46-5 on Soccer since World Cup up 24.47 units

Sevilla -0.5 first half at +105 for 3 units. More talent. I like this first half bet because Sevilla only need a draw to move forward. I see them coming out firing for that early first goal, then relaxing a little bit. I could see this game ending in a draw, but Sevilla should score first. Liege have also struggled at the back and have not kept a clean sheet in this competition in a while. The La Liga leaders will take care of business here.

Zenit at -137 for 7 units. Zenit haven’t lost a home match since April. They beat Copenhagen 5-0 last time they met. Zenit have never lost a match at home in this competition. Artem Dzyuba is still scoring goals in Russia. Zenit have scored in every Europa League group stage match they have every played. Zenit can guarantee moving on to the round-of-32 with a win and I think they do just that.

Betis -1 at -120 for 3 units. With a win Betis moves through. Betis have scored first at home in 4 of their last 5 games. The Spaniards haven’t lost yet in this competition this season. Olympiakos Piraeus have some talent, like former Betis player, Matias Nahuel, but I don’t think they have enough talent here. Lo Celso and Sanabria have been in form in this competition for Betis. Olympiakos have some injury concerns (like YaYa Toure) and Betis is hard to beat in Sevilla.

Soccer

Will Dortmund or Atletico Win Their Group? Is Tottenham Dead?

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60-44-5 on Soccer since World Cup up 25.91 units

Man City losing kept me from having a big day unfortunately. If Lyon played like they do against Man City week in and week out, they would be closer than 15 points out of PSG in the league. Marouane Fellaini did it again for Man United, winning in extra time. Real Madrid looked like Real Madrid should in the second half against Roma. Ajax qualified for the final 16 for the first time in a while. My big bet on bayern won and Niko Kovac lives to coach another day thanks to Robben’s left foot and Lewandowski’s head.

Dortmund -1.5 at -143 for 5 units. Dortmund have not won a game by 2 since October 24th surprisingly. That changes today. Club Brugge does not have the class to keep up with Dortmund, even though they only loss by 1 at home against Dortmund. Signal Iduna Park is a tough place to play. Paco Alcacer has 10 goals in 9 games this season. Dortmund may concede as Brugge can score, but I think Dortmund knocks in a few today. Dortmund can move one step closer to securing the group today, but a win secures them a final 16 spot. They come out firing at the Westfalenstadion today.

Atletico Madrid under 2.5 at +103 for 2 units. Public Fade. Madrid are basically already through to the next stage, but a draw or win here will guarantee it (draw assumes Dortmund beats Brugge). Atletico’s last few games have gone over, but I think they batten down the hatches here and make it a low scoring game.

Tottenham at -133 for 2 units. Tottenham have to win to stay alive. Inter can produce a kill shot today. Betting against Icardi always makes me nervous, but Tottenham is more talented across the pitch. Harry Kane gets a goal today. I feel it.

Soccer

Champions League Soccer – Will Niko Kovac Keep His Job?

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59-41-5 on Soccer since World Cup up 27.58 units

A beautiful Witsel pass to Paco Alcácer that led to Dortmund’s 3-2 win on November 9th kept me from going above 30 units. I bet on a tie in that game and it was a fun watch. I remember when people were saying that the Bundesliga is the worst major European league because their biggest transfer was Witsel this off-season. Witsel has actually done terrific and has been one of the best defensive midfielders in the world. I can think of about 16 premier league teams that could use his services. Anyway, just thought that was a weird way for people to take a stab at a league. Atletico Madrid and Tottenham were my other big bets on that day and they won.

Going to get back into soccer on this Champions League Tuesday. Some teams are already knocked out of the group stage, while others are fighting to win their group. It should make for an exciting round of games.

Manchester City -1½ at +102 for 2 units.

Manchester City at -256 for 1 unit. City have been in much better form since their loss to Lyon earlier in this group stage. City can win the group with a win today. City have won 12 of their last 14 road games. City have kept a clean sheet in their last 4 road games. Manchester get their revenge today. No Bernado Silva keeps me from making this a massive play, but I still like City a lot in this one.

Bayern Munchen -1½ at -120 for 4 units. Bayern needs a win here to secure the group if everything else falls into place. Robert Lewandowski has 3 braces to his name since October 20th. Bayern won the first meeting 2-0 in Portugal. Now they get Benfica at the Allianz Arena. Javi Martinez leads all players in combined tackles and interceptions in Champions League this season.

It is reported that Niko Kovac threw his players under the bus lately instead of taking the blame for Bayern’s poor form this season. It will be interesting to see how his players react and if he can keep his job here. I don’t remember Pep or Klopp ever saying stuff along those lines… Even with the coaching turmoil, Bayern will get the win on more class and talent. Benfica can take advantage of space when Kimmich and Alaba get too far forward, but they will have to be clinical with these chances.. I think that is too much to ask for.

Ajax/Juventus/Man United/Man City/Bayern Munich Parlay risking 2 units to win 8.22 units. Ajax move on with a victory. Juve is more talented than Valencia. I don’t really see Valencia getting many clear goal scoring opportunities. United are playing a far less talented Young Boys team… but they may be the parlay killer. City and Munich are written about above. Been winning parlays so let’s keep it going.

Football

NFL MNF – Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

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52-38-4 on the NFL up 42.18 units

Texans at -195 for 5 units. Adoree Jackson struggled against T.Y. Hilton and DeAndre Hopkins should do work. If Tennessee elects to double Hopkins (I think they should), then I think Coutee and Thomas could have good games. Thomas had no catches on 1 target last week, but I think that was an outlier more than a trend. Watson has been patient this season and has been playing great in 4 or 5 WR sets. Houston’s defensive line will be too much for the Titans.

Football

NFL Week 12

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51-37-4 on the NFL up 40.29 units

Patriots -12.5 for 7 units. Jets sucks. Patriots have to win to stay in the running for home-field. Pats coming off a BYE. James White will have a good game. Matt Barkley went off on the Jets last week. Tom Brady is 10-1 coming off a double digit loss. Historical trends, last week’s performance, and Tom Brady are the reasons why I am taking the Pats heavy today.

Steelers at -160 for 5 units. Broncos don’t have the secondary to stop JuJu and AB. Pittsburgh came out slow last week and almost lost, so I think they come out firing in this one. Pittsburgh has done a fantastic job protecting Big Ben. Chubb and Miller against the Pittsburgh offensive line is the matchup to watch today. Pittsburgh is converting on 56% of their 3rd downs since week 5 (Best in NFL). Pittsburgh’s offense will be too much for Denver.

Football

NFL MNF – Chiefs @ Rams

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50-37-3 on the NFL up 38.19 units

Chiefs +3 for 5 units. Kansas City has scored a touchdown on 41% of their drives this season. The Rams have scored a touchdown on 34% of their drives. This game has all the makings of a shootout. Kareem Hunt is going to have to have a good day for this bet to win. Rams are a near perfect football team, but they struggle getting off the field in 3rd and long situations. Kansas City can take advantage of this. Tyreek Hill is too damn fast for any defense. Cooper Kupp’s injury hurts the Rams. I just think the Chiefs are better at this point in the season and that shows up tonight.

Props to the NFL for not fining Tyreek Hill for his camera operator celebration. The league is fun again. The Texans whole defense celebrating after Justin Reid’s 101 yard pick 6 was also awesome. Hill will find the endzone tonight..

Tyreek Hill at least 1 Receiving TD at -143 for 3 units.

Football

NFL Week 11 – Playoff Picture Gets Clearer

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47-33-3 on the NFL up 41.25 units

I am getting a little sad the NFL season is about halfway over including the playoffs.

Panthers at -208 for 3 units. The Panthers will win after their double digit loss to the Steelers 10 days ago. Carolina always plays well after a big loss with Cam Newton. He doesn’t like losing. I can’t see the Lions stopping Carolina’s talented youngsters (McCaffrey, Samuel, and Moore). The secondary will play a lot better than they did against the Pittsburgh. Marvin Jones is inactive and Golden Tate is on the Eagles.. Carolina got a wake up call, this bet believes they actually woke up. Carolina struggles on the road, but they win this one.

Titans/Colts under 49.5 for 1 unit. Colts move the ball better than most NFL teams, but the Tennessee defense impressed me last week. I see a 27-17 type score in this one.

Texans at -155 for 2 units. Redskins looked bad last week in their win against the Bucs. Houston’s defensive line will show up. Thomas and Hopkins will be too much for Washington’s secondary.

Giants -3 for 3 units. Bucs are ass. Saquon and Odell should dominate. Don’t like placing a bet on either New York team, but I do think this one hits.

Chargers at -308 for 2 units. Chargers can basically secure a playoff spot with a win today. They would move to 8-2 and have a 3 game lead in the wild card. They can still win the division over the Chiefs, but they have to keep winning. Broncos only win in the last few weeks has been against the Cardinals. San Diego’s pass rush, Derwin James, and Melvin Gordon will be too much for Denver. Rivers has been on fire this season.

Cardinals at -220 for 1 unit. Raiders fade. I honestly don’t think they are trying to win games. Avril left. Nelson retired. Mack and Cooper got traded. It’s comical at this point.

Giants/Panthers/Cardinals/Ravens/Chargers Parlay risking 2 units to win 11.18 units. Won my college football parlay again yesterday. Feeling good about this one even with the lowly Cardinals and Giants in it. I’m 6-3 on parlays up 20.63 units.

Other Sports

Snooker November 17th

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8-4 in snooker in 2018 up 3.82 units

Ronnie O’Sullivan at -145 for 4 units. Haven’t bet on snooker since Ronnie lost to Ali Carter back in April. Ronnie has looked solid at the NI Open. O’Sullivan is only tough to bet on when he isn’t motivated. He missed a shot in the last round and banged his head on the table. If that isn’t passion.. I DONT KNOW WHAT IS?!? haha it is hard to get pumped about snooker, but the Michael Jordan of the sport wins today. #BACKONMYSNOOKERSHIT

Football

College Football Week 12

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38-27 on College Football up 15.39 units

Pittsburgh/Wake Forest over 59.5 for 1 unit.

Wake Forest +6 for 1 unit. Wake Forest has to limit Pittsburgh’s rushing attack if they want to win this one. Wake Forest is going to put up some points, it is just a matter if they can get enough stops. I think they do. Jamie Newman looked great in his first start against a good NC State defense. Newman will do enough against Pitt to cover this spread.

Clemson -28 for 5 units. Duke doesn’t have the talent in the trenches to keep up with Clemson. It is that simple. Clemson was only 5-15 on 3rd down last week and only scored touchdowns on 50% of their redzone attempts. They worked on that in practice this week and it will show.

West Virginia at -240 for 3 units. Will Grier won’t be stopped against a porous Oklahoma State defense.

Ohio State -14 for 2 units. Maryland season has had its lowlights, I don’ think Saturday’s game will be a highlight either. OSU’s line dominates.

USC at -145 for 3 units. UCLA is ass. If this reasoning doesn’t work for a second straight week, I will take it out of my system. (Bet Duke to cover -10 last week because UNC is ass… Worst beat of the season for me. SVP covered it, but Duke got a TD taken away late to go up 20 and then UNC scores late to lost by 7…)

Ohio State/Kentucky/NC State/Notre Dame/East Carolina/Central Florida/Hawaii Moneyline Parlay risking 2 units to win 6.43 units. For all my degenerates that want action all day. Won the parlay last week. Back 2 Back.