Month: November 2018

Tennis

ATP Finals – Roger Federer Vs. Alexander Zverev

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91-43-6 on tennis up 46.63 units

I am getting sad that this honey hole’s season of mine is coming to an end. I am drinking some Bulleit 95 Rye Whiskey to commemorate what has been a great tennis season for me. Cheers to myself. Can’t wait to do it again next season…

Roger Federer -3 at -110 for 4 units. In regards to the tennis schedule, Zverev said, “Roger is older, so he has different rules from the ATP. He can skip two Masters Series. He doesn’t have to play all the 500 events. I have to play all the four Grand Slams, all the nine Masters events, and I have to play four 500 events outside of that.” Alexander didn’t mince word. All that aside, Zverev is going to have to be on the top of his game if he wants to win this match.

Roger hasn’t won this tournament since 2011. He is still going for his 100th career title. Federer has looked solid in this tournament after his opening match defeat and it is hard for me to see him losing before the final. Zverev plays too far back for my liking against Federer. Roger has to utilize his backhand slice and make Zverev run forward when he doesn’t want to. The German #1 has to play aggressive here with winning corner shots. Also, he needs a high first serve percentage if he wants to win. Roger will make the young German work (Zverev is the youngest player ever to make it this far in this tournament). Zverev has won two matches against Federer, but I think he loses this one. Alexander has played great this season, but he has not shown a title winning level this week. Roger takes care of business.

Football

NFL TNF – Packers at Seahawks

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46-32-3 on the NFL up 43.39 units

Seahawks at -161 for 3 units. I don’t trust betting on Mike McCarthy. Packers are 0-4 on the road this season and now go to one of the toughest places to play in the NFL. When you look at Seattle’s schedule, they have won every game they should and lost every game they should.. except their opening game against Denver. Russell Wilson leads the NFL on deep TD passes with 9. Tyler Lockett’s ability to gain separation at the end of his routes has been more than impressive this season. Exhibit A against the Rams last week.

Betting against Ayyy A-Ron is never fun, but losing money is less fun. Aaron Jones has been solid for the Packers, but when you are facing 5 men in the box, you better show out. Green Bay got robbed by replacement refs years ago in Seattle, but I think they just get beat in this one. Jimmy Graham against his former team here. Kevin King and Nick Perry are out, which hurts the Packers. Chunk Plays, Rashaad Penny, and Seattle’s defense help them get to 5-5 on the year.

Packers/Seahawks under 49 for 4 units. I see a 24-17 type game here. Neither team has been great at sustaining drives this year. The Packers are averaging 24.8 points a game, but those number are a little lower on the road. The Seahawks are averaging 24.3 points a game, but they have had only one home game go over this 49 number this year.. and that was against the Rams. If this bet loses on an Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary.. I won’t be mad. I won’t be mad. I won’t be mad. There, I said it 3 times, so now I know I won’t be mad. I won’t be mad.

Tennis

ATP Finals – Roger Federer and Kevin Anderson

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90-43-6 on tennis up 42.99 units

Roger Federer -2.5 at -110 for 4 units. Center Court has a showdown on Thursday at the O2 Arena between the Swiss #1 and the South African #1. Kevin Anderson and Roger Federer are both trying to make the semi-finals… and both can. The Nishikori-Thiem matchup will clear up the situation some, but I am not going to get into all the crazy tiebreaker scenarios here like percentage of games won. Federer can guarantee moving on if he wins in straight sets. Thiem winning only a set against Nishikori would mean Anderson and Federer move on with a Federer win. The line will most likely move to -3 or -3.5 if Thiem wins a set, so get it while it is hot.

My prediction for this match involves Federer winning by limiting his unforced errors. He had over 30 against Nishikori, but only 11 in his last match against Thiem. Federer’s slice will be too much for Anderson to handle. This is Federer’s 16th time in this tournament and I think he avoids only his second group stage exit here. This is uncharted territory for Anderson. Roger gets his revenge for his loss to Anderson at Wimbledon earlier this year.

Tennis

ATP Finals – Group Stage Continued

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88-43-6 on tennis up 38.66 units

Novak Djokovic -4.5 at -120 for 3 units. Zverev only won 3 games when these two met last month. That was the only other meeting on this surface and Djokovic won handily. Alexander Zverev leads the H2H 2-1, but he is not in his best form of the season. Novak is in solid form. Djokovic is the best returner in the world, which has helped him earn the #1 ranking. Djokovic has won this tournament 5 times. 5! He has only lost two matches at this tournament in his career. Silly good.

Djokovic/Zverev under 21.5 at -109 for 2 units. There were 15 games the last time these two played. I expect Djokovic to dominate again.

Basketball

College Basketball – November 13th

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70-62-2 on NCAAB last season and went up 8.95 units

2-3-1 this season down 5.74 units

Stanford had 3 chances to score a basket to cover the +17 against UNC’s practice squad at the end of the game, but couldn’t do it. Then both of my money line favorite play covered the spread easy so I lost some value there. Just how my young college basketball season has been going.

Tennessee State -6 for 5 units. Arkansas Little Rock was one of the worst teams in college basketball last season and needed overtime to beat a D2 school in their opener. Fade Little Rock.

Pepperdine +10.5 for 3 units. Pepperdine cane shoot from deep and that will help them cover this spread. Northern Colorado and Pepperdine both smacked a D2 school in their opening game, so this line confuses me a little, but not enough to scare me away.

Georgia Tech +16 for 2 units. Tennessee returns a lot of players this year and they deserve to be highly ranked, but this line is just too high for me. Jose Alvarado has the ability to be an All-ACC type player for GT this season. Brandon Alston is a solid senior guard as well. Strong guard play will help the Yellow Jackets cover against a more talented Tennessee team. Shembari Phillips, the transfer from Tennessee, can give GT some inside scouting..

Tennis

ATP Finals – Thiem Vs. Federer

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87-43-6 on tennis up 34.49 units

Federer -3 at -120 for 5 units. If Roger loses today, he most likely will not make it past the group stage here for only the second time in his career (16 appearances). Roger has a 15-0 record in the second match of this group stage. The Swiss has not lost 3 matches in a row since 2002. He is on a two match losing streak. Let me say that again, Roger Federer has not lost 3 matches in a row since 2002! Tiger Woods was not even engaged to Elin Nordegren at that point. Soak up the Sun, Hot in Here, and Lose Yourself were just coming out. Unreal. Dominic Thiem actually leads the H2H 2-1, but they have not met since 2016. Neither is in great form, but Federer will get up for this match and use his return game a lot better than he did in the first match.

Basketball

NBA – November 13th

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61-53-2 on NBA in 2018 up 9.28 units

8-10-1 on NBA this season down 7.84 units

Took a break from NBA because I was losing. Been watching the games and feel confident getting back on the horse tonight. The refs have been so bad this early season. I mean that 6th foul on Kevin Durant in overtime against the Clippers was a joke and sealed the win for the Clippers. The Hornets got robbed in Philly against the 76ers and the league admitted it. These NBA refs make me appreciate how good the NFL refs have been this season honestly. I am not blaming the refs for my poor results so far this season, but it dampens the watchability of the product on the court.

Rockets/Nuggets over 214.5 for 3 units. Houston shot a lot better in their last game against the Pacers than they were in the first few games before. Too many players can get hot in this one and send this over to bet the under. I think this number should be around 220 so I will bite.

Basketball

College Basketball November 12th

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70-62-2 on NCAAB last season and went up 8.95 units

0-2-1 this season down 5.00 units

VCU at -350 for 4 units. VCU plays well at the Siegel Center. Bowling Green played well against St. Johns, but let the game slip away in the second half. Justin Turner can ball for Bowling. VCU has a more balanced approach than they have had in the past few years. Justin Tillman is playing basketball professionally in Korea now, while Mo-Alie Cox is catching touchdowns for the Colts. Those two dominant big men are gone, but Issac Vann, Sean Mobley, Mike’l Simms, Michael Gilmore, Malik Crowfield, and De’Riante Jenkins can all ball. VCU wins at home.

Stanford +17 for 3 units. This UNC team is flying under the radar a little bit (Zion and Duke getting all the love) as they are balanced and talented. Maye is still there and Nassir Little is a beast of a freshman. Cameron Johnson finally looks to be healthy for UNC and has been paying well. Kenny Williams (the former VCU commit) can drain some 3s. Stanford is by far the most talented team UNC has played this season. Stanford beat a solid UNCW team on this east coast swing and will look to play well again here. Kezie Okpala will give the UNC big men some trouble. I think UNC wins, but they won’t cover.

Oklahoma at -400 for 4 units. Christian James and the Sooners get the win here. This line should be closer to -800. UTSA lost to St. Edwards, which is not even a division 1 basketball team. The -8 scares me a little bit because this feels like it should be closer to -15, but I am confident in the money line. -400 may not look like value, but there is value here.

Football

NFL MNF – Giants at 49ers

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45-32-3 on the NFL up 40.50 units

Back above 40 units for the season. Vegas went back to making money this weekend with the Browns, Titans, and Cardinals all covering against the Falcons, Patriots, and Chiefs. The Titans and Cardinals covering was easy for me to see coming, but the Browns dominating the Falcons threw me off a little.

Nothing like having NFC East teams in primetime Sunday and Monday night.. Big Dick Nick and the 49ers have a little confidence after shit-pumping the Raiders 35-3 last week. Gruden is a hell of a coach, maybe they will draft a wideout (Cooper) or pass rusher (Mack) with all their first round picks. The 49ers are favored in this game, but I can’t help but think this line is skewed because Nick Mullens looked so good against Oakland. Saquon and Odell can score a touchdown on any given play against this San Francisco defense that gives up over 26 points a game. New York’s defense gives up over 25 points a game as well, which leads me to my bet tonight.

Giants/49ers over 44.5 for 3 units. 49ers are 31st in DVOA on balls thrown to the left side of the field by their opponents. Odell should probably line up on that side if the Giants want to put up points. This total seems a few points lower than it should be. Every 49ers home game has gone over this number, except for last week when Oakland could only put up 3 points. Hot take: the Giants will score more than 3 points. I just see Barkley running all over this defense, Odell having some big plays, and Mullens coming back to Earth a little while still playing well. I see a 27-24 type game here.

Football

Tyler Lockett and Brandin Cooks Have No Morale Compass

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Did you see this shit? Cam Newton is out here giving balls to children while these two wideouts give their touchdown balls to Floyd “Money” Mayweather. You know what all the children that Cam Newton gives his balls to have in common? They are not convicted of domestic abuse and battery unlike Floyd. I mean this is why America hates the 1%. Also, Floyd is obviously selling drugs or gambling with his two phone setup (shoutout Kevin Gates). I mean gambling is a sin Floyd. What a degenerate. I went 3-0 on my NFL bets today.