Month: September 2019

Football

Titans at Jaguars Recap

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Jaguars win 20-7.

Titans:

  • Marcus Mariota: 22/39, 282 yards + 6 carries, 34 yards
  • Derrick Henry: 17 carries, 44 yards, 1 TD + 2 targets, 1 reception, 2 yards
  • Dion Lewis: 3 carries, 13 yards + 1 target, 1 reception, 7 yards
  • Tajae Sharpe: 3 targets, 2 receptions, 70 yards
  • Adam Humphries: 9 targets, 6 receptions, 93 yards
  • Corey Davis: 4 targets, 3 receptions, 44 yards
  • A.J. Brown: 5 targets, 1 reception, 4 yards
  • Jonnu Smith: 3 targets, 2 receptions, 20 yards
  • Delanie Walker: 9 targets, 7 receptions, 64 yards

Mariota has been sacked 17 times through 3 weeks. That is the most for any QB through 3 weeks this season.. and every season since 2002. Their pass protection is bad, but Mariota makes it worse than it is. Arthur Smith has not been calling plays to help out his QB, Mariota. I think Mariota needs more quick-throws and designed bootlegs. Derrick Henry dropped a screen pass that was wide open. Humphries and Walker looked solid. Throw the ball to Dion Lewis more. Give Mariota easier throws. Do what the Bears did against the Redskins this week. Make it easy on the QB, Arthur. I don’t believe in Mariota, but his OC has to help him out. Tennessee’s defense is above average and plays solid. Logan Ryan, Malcolm Butler, and Jayon Brown are all good.. They just need some help from their offense.

Jaguars: 

  • Gardner Minshew II: 20/30, 204, 2 TD + 4 carries, 18 yards
  • Leonard Fournette: 15 carries, 66 yards + 8 targets, 6 receptions, 26 yards
  • Dede Westbrook: 9 targets, 5 receptions, 46 yards
  • DJ Chark Jr.: 5 targets, 4 receptions, 76 yards, 1 TD
  • James O’Shaughnessy: 3 targets, 2 receptions, 18 yards, 1 TD
  • Chris Conley: 3 targets, 2 receptions, 30 yards

Gardner Minshew II is the 2nd Jaguars QB to throw a TD in each of his first 3 games for the team (B. Leftwich). As a result of Minshew playing so well, D.J. Chark Jr. has the most receiving yards through 3 weeks of the season for the Jags since Keenan McCardell had 284 yards in 2000. Fournette has the volume of a great running-back, but he is struggling against stacked boxes. Minshew should help him with that in future weeks. Dj Chark seems to have overtaken Dede Westbrook as the WR1 in Jacksonville. The Jaguars defense is still dominant at times. Campell and Ramsey have played great over the past two weeks, but will they keep Ramsey? Tajae Sharpe had a ridiculous long catch on Ramsey that Mariota under-threw and Ramsey tipped.. but if you take that away, Ramsey’s stats look amazing again. I don’t think Ramsey likes head coach Doug Marrone, but the Jaguars should pay him or trade him soon.

 

Football

Kyle Allen and Daniel Jones!! Melvin Gordon Returning – Jalen Ramsey Will Do ANYTHING to Not Play for Jaguars – NFL Week 3 Recaps and Stats

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Melvin Gordon seems to be returning soon, but it remains to be seen whether he will pad his stats and be allowed to play against the Dolphins this week. Jalen Ramsey had the flu on Monday to miss practice. Now he has back tightness on Wednesday to dodge practice. Doug Marrone said “He loves football […] he loves his teammates.” Well I think he hates you Doug.

Kyle Allen. The kid in this NFL commercial with Cam Newton.. Has taken Cam Newton’s Job?

Allen looked great in his first start this season. The Cardinals defense is not the best in the league, but Allen did more than enough. Cam should take as long as he needs, plus some for his reinjured lisfranc injury. I know we are living in a simulation based on this commercial coming to life. I’ll miss you Cam as a Panthers fan, but for at least the next 4 weeks… All in on Allen.

Daniel Jones (and Matt Gay missing an easy FG) gave the Giants some life.. but no Saquon is tough (out 4 to 8 weeks with high ankle sprain). Defenses should be able to stop Jones without the league’s best running-back, but then again the Giants play the Redskins this week..

69-58-5 on the NFL last season (2018/19) up 26.36 units

11-17 on the NFL this season down 13.09 units

Soccer

Soccer September 25th

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92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

48-36-9 on Soccer in 2019 up 5.44 units

A lot of Wednesday soccer action. There are 8 EFL Cup games, 8 Ligue 1 games, 4 LaLiga games, 6 MLS matches, and 7 Serie A matches. A lot to look at, but I have drank my coffee and digested it. The Thai food I ate for dinner has been hard to digest, but the spicy green beef is too damn good.

New York City/Atlanta United over 3 at -119 for 2 units. NYC’s last 3 home games have hit this number. Atlanta United has to win for the top-spot in the Eastern Conference. A NYC win would all but secure that same spot. Josef Martinez is behind only Ibrahimovic and Carlos Vela for most goals in MLS. Both these squads are averaging over 3 goals a game over their past 10 matches. These clubs want first-place, so I expect them to come out swinging.

Valencia/Getafe over 2 at -128 for 3 units. Valencia’s defense is not as strong as it was last year. They have already changed managers this season. Getafe have scored a first-half goal in their last 5 matches. Parejo and Gameiro are still solid for Valencia. Jaime Mata and Jorge Molina both have two league goals for Getafe. This game should see at least 2 goals.

Mallorca/Atletico Madrid over 2 at -121 for 2 units. The over/under for Atletico Madrid is set at 1.5. If Mallorca scores.. this bet will win, but even if they don’t, I like Atletico to get 2 in. Budimir scored 2 goals in the last 30 minutes of his last game for Mallorca. Atletico Madrid have struggled a little bit in this early Liga season. I expect Atletico to come out firing after draws against Celta Vigo and Juventus. Mallorca have only won one of their last 9 matches (against relegation candidate Eibar).

Real Madrid/Napoli/PSG Parlay risking 3 units to win 2.39 units. Napoli have won their last 7 matches against Cagliari. Napoli beat Liverpool and Lecce recently. Fernando Llorente has been scoring at an impressive clip so far for Napoli (3 goals and 2 assists in 133 minutes). Insigne and Mertens have been in-form too.

Real Madrid held Sevilla scoreless in Sevilla for the first time in over a decade over the weekend. The scoring and the midfield still need to improve for Real. Osasuna should not be a problem for this Real Madrid team, even with all of Madrid’s injuries.

PSG are not going to lose or draw to Reims. Keylor Navas has not allowed a goal in 3 matches for PSG. Reims won the last time these two met, Neymar will not let that happen today.

 

Football

Monday Night Football Prediction

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69-58-5 on the NFL last season (2018/19) up 26.36 units

10-16 on the NFL this season down 13.04 units 

Mitchell Trubisky will have over 232.5 passing yards at -120 for 4 units. Redskins opponents are averaging 287 passing yards a game against them. Washington have had one of the worst defenses in the league so far. Trubisky has looked worse than most QBs this season, but some big plays to Taylor Gabriel, David Montgomery, and Allen Robinson should help push this over. Nagy should be able to help his QB out in this cake matchup.

Bears -5 at -107 for 4 units. Chicago’s defense. Redskins lose the 3rd down battle and give up too many big plays.

Uncategorized

Parlay

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Boise State won!! Won my Parlays the past two weekend so doing another. This one pays out around +980.

GREEN BAY PACKERS

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

LOS ANGELES RAMS

SYRACUSE

Georgia

BAYERN MUNCHEN

MANCHESTER CITY

JUVENTUS

BARCELONA

Football

College Football September 20th/21st

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7-5 on College Football in 2019 up 5.02 units

Won my parlay last week, but went 1-2 on straight up plays. Kentucky covered by 1 and Alabama was a bad beat. I counted the parlay as a win, but only 0.48 units gained on college football from the parlay. It at least offsets (Quavo) the juice.

Boise State -7 at -110 for 8 units. This line opened at 9.5. Donald Hammond III, the QB for Air Force, led them to a road win against Colorado last week. Now they travel to the blue turf to play #20 Boise State. Air Force were not perfect in that Colorado game, they had 3 turnovers.. Air Force’s triple-option attack is tough to deal with, but Boise State played Portland State last week, so they have had time to prepare for the option offense. Boise State’s freshman QB, Hank Bachmeier, has been great this season at sustaining drives. He has completed 20/29 third downs with the ball in his hands, whether running or passing. Boise State’s opponents are only 6 for 35 on third downs. The Boise State defense excels at getting off of the field, while their offense stays on the field. Pretty good combo. Curtis Weaver is averaging 2 sacks a game for Boise State this season. He has 26.5 sacks in his Broncos’ career. He should be able to use his penetration to disrupt the option offense. The last time Air Force beat a ranked opponent, it was Boise State in 2016. That won’t happen tonight.

Northwestern +9.5 at -110 for 2 units. Michigan State’s kicker and offense are bad. The tall grass of Northwestern is a weirdly tough environment. MSU doesn’t have a left tackle. The have 3 LTs injured. In a low-scoring game, I will take the home-team and the points.

Wisconsin ML at -170 for 4 units. Michigan’s defensive line is not what it has been in past years. Wisconsin has one of the best running games in football, again. The Wisconsin offense will outpace Michigan’s offense..

North Carolina ML at -135 for 4 units. App State fans and Mack being Back have sold out Kenan Memorial Stadium. Appalachian State’s Qb, Zac Thomas, was the Sun Belt player of the year last year, and he has looked great again this year. Sam Howell of UNC did not play well in the first half against Wake Forest last week, but the freshman has 6 touchdowns and 0 interceptions so far this season. Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome are talented playmakers that should find space against the App State defense. North Carolina will be able to put up points. I expect North Carolina to win and score in the 30s or 40s. 

UTEP +14.5 at -112 for 2 units. Everybody will be watching Notre Dame at Georgia, but I think there is money to be made on UTEP Saturday night. Nevada lost to Oregon 77-6 and only beat Weber State last week by 6. UTEP are going to run the ball, their best wideout, Tre’Shon Wolf (awesome name) only has 3 catches this season. I like UTEP to slow the game down and cover the points. The Miners of UTEP are not great by any means, but Nevada’s weak o-line and UTEP’s ability to run the ball should get them the cover. Good teams win, great teams cover.

Football

NFL Thursday Night Football

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69-58-5 on the NFL last season (2018/19) up 26.36 units

10-14 on the NFL this season down 5.04 units 

AJ Brown will have over 2.5 receptions at -130 for 6 units. Brown is averaging 4.5 targets and 3 catches a game in his rookie season.. so why bet him at his average? I think the Jaguars are going to focus on Delanie Walker and Derrick Henry. Henry had 238 yards!!! and 4 touchdowns!!! the last time he played the Jaguars. Jacksonville has not forgotten. Ramsey is still going to play, but I doubt he shadows the rookie Brown. I tried to google who Ramsey will be covering and all that comes up is that he hasn’t been traded yet and will play tonight. Thanks Google, I know. Brown should have some room against the same Jacksonville secondary that Sammy Watkins dominated. Last week, Houston’s top two receivers (Fuller and Hopkins) both had at least 3 catches. Brown is going to catch 4 balls or more. This may win in the first half.

Titans -3.5 at +150 for 2 units. The Browns Alternate line worked well for me Monday night, so I am going back to the well. I still think this Titans team is better than the public seems to think. Minshew was sacked 4 times last week and I expect more of that tonight. Minshew’s stats look good because of his garbage time against the Chiefs average secondary. Jacksonville completed less than 25% of their third downs last week. I think Tennessee’s defense is better than Houston’s and there are some stats that backup my thoughts like Points Against and Yards. Tennessee allowed 4.4 yards per play while forcing two turnovers last week. That is good. I love Minshew as an ECU/Mike Leach fan, but don’t love him to play great tonight. Speaking of Leach.. if you didn’t see Leach talking about PAC-12 mascots it is awesome and posted below. Leach will make you think. He is quite the Wordsmith..

Soccer

Champions League Recap – Europa League Predictions

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92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

44-36-9 on Soccer in 2019 down 0.64 units

I love betting on Manchester City against Shakhtar. City have now won their past 3 games over them by a combined score of 12-0. 12! The line was -1.5 because Stones, Laporte, Kompany were all out and they had just lost to Norwich. TOO EZ. An angry Pep, makes me a happy bettor.

PSG beat Real Madrid 3-0 and Zidane said PSG were better in every department. PSG did not have any of their attacking 3 (Neymar, Mbappe, Cavani) in this match, but they had former Real man Di Maria.

Real Madrid have now lost their past 5 Champions League games without Sergio Ramos (PSG, Ajax, CSKA, CSKA, Juventus). Hazard did not look that great for Real Madrid.

Juve went up 2-0 with Cuadrado scoring his first goal since.. well it has been a while. He had an awesome dance to celebrate that was posted on the @Sportsologists instagram. Atletico Madrid turned it up a notch in the last 30 minutes of the game to equal 2-2 on a Hector Herrera header. Ronaldo had a chance to take the lead for Juventus late, but it wasn’t a penalty so he missed it..

Tottenham went up 2-0 on Olympiacos on a Lucas Moura strike and a Kane penalty, but the Greek side deservedly tied it up 2-2. I know Tottenham made the final last year, but they need a right-back and attacking-mid if they want to move on. Eriksen looks like he has checked out.

Munich took care of business and Muller scored a cheeky chip goal. Leverkusen got upset by Lokomotiv Moscow. Ajax keeps on winning in this competition, beating Lille 3-0. Leipzig can’t lose in any competition.

Valencia beat Chelsea 1-0 and Ross Barkley missed a pk. Barkley said he is still Chelsea’s PK taker after the game. Why is even on Chelsea? No disrespect, but he should not be in a top 10 clubs squad. Hummels and Dortmund put the clamps on Barcelona in their 0-0 draw. Lionel Messi saw some action for the first time since the Copa Del Ray final in May. Napoli upset Liverpool 2-0, but Liverpool lost at Napoli last year and still won the Champions League.

Onto today’s plays. Staying away from Arsenal without Lacazette, Ozil, Sokratis, Bergkamp, Pires, and Thierry Henry in the squad today.

Basel at +112 for 2 units. Basel have scored at least twice in their past 4 games. Kemal Ademi has been on fire for Basel. Krasnodar are tied atop the Russian Premier League this year after 9 games, but I like Basel at home. History, Form, and the best player are all on Basel’s side.

Sevilla at -189 for 3 units. Sevilla are going to win this game 1-0 or 2-0 like they have done in 3 of their past 4 matches. Sevilla haven’t lost an away match in La Liga this year and Qarabag are objectively worse than those teams. De Jong, Ocampos, Fernando, Joan Jordan, and Reguilon may not have the star power than Sarabia and Ben Yedder had, but Sevilla seems to be playing more like a team this season. Munir should feature today.. I like Sevilla to keep up the winning on the road.

Roma -1 at -181 for 2 units and Roma -1.5 at +106 for 1 unit. I don’t know much about Basaksehir, but I know Roma should beat them in Rome. Dzeko should feast. Roma scored 4 goals in their last game and I expect more of the same here. The last time Basaksehir played a team near Roma’s stature (B. Monchengladbach), they lost 5-1. Mkhitaryan, Kluivert, Florenzi, and Cristante can all score for Roma. Florenzi can score from the halfway line..

Soccer

Champions League Wednesday

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92-78-9 on Soccer in 2018 up 8.17 units

42-35-9 on Soccer in 2019 down 9.37 units

Manchester City -1.5 at -122 for 12 units. Max Play. John Stones adds to Manchester City’s CB injury list, but I still like them to take care of business against Shakhtar Donestsk. City beat the Ukrainian club 6-0 and 3-0 in the Champions League last year. City are coming off of a 3-2 loss to Norwich. De Bruyne did not start that game against Norwich and you could tell. City looked a lot better once De Bruyne came on. Kyle Walker and Otamendi have had better games than over the weekend at Norwich.. They will play better today. Cancelo will get his first start for Man City if I had to guess. Rodri, Sterling, Silva, De Bruyne, and Aguero should all feature.

Image result for man city shakhtar gif

Shakhtar allowed Zorya Luhansk to score 3 goals on them over the weekend (Zorya only had 9 goals in 6 league games before that match). If Zorya can score 3, so can Man City. This line is a gift because of the Stones/Laporte injuries and the Norwich result. Also, Man City had the most goals in the Champions League with 30 last season. They scored on over 18% of their shots. That is lethal. They should pick apart the Shakhtar backline. I am not losing money today.

Real Madrid pk,+½ at -112 for 3 units. Hazard, Benzema, and Bale vs Icardi, Sarabia, and Di Maria. I’ll take the former to draw or win.

Juventus pk,+½ at -116 for 3 units. I see Ronaldo in Champions League to win or draw and I take Ronaldo in Champions League to win or draw. I am a simple man.