7-5 on College Football in 2019 up 5.02 units

Won my parlay last week, but went 1-2 on straight up plays. Kentucky covered by 1 and Alabama was a bad beat. I counted the parlay as a win, but only 0.48 units gained on college football from the parlay. It at least offsets (Quavo) the juice.

Boise State -7 at -110 for 8 units. This line opened at 9.5. Donald Hammond III, the QB for Air Force, led them to a road win against Colorado last week. Now they travel to the blue turf to play #20 Boise State. Air Force were not perfect in that Colorado game, they had 3 turnovers.. Air Force’s triple-option attack is tough to deal with, but Boise State played Portland State last week, so they have had time to prepare for the option offense. Boise State’s freshman QB, Hank Bachmeier, has been great this season at sustaining drives. He has completed 20/29 third downs with the ball in his hands, whether running or passing. Boise State’s opponents are only 6 for 35 on third downs. The Boise State defense excels at getting off of the field, while their offense stays on the field. Pretty good combo. Curtis Weaver is averaging 2 sacks a game for Boise State this season. He has 26.5 sacks in his Broncos’ career. He should be able to use his penetration to disrupt the option offense. The last time Air Force beat a ranked opponent, it was Boise State in 2016. That won’t happen tonight.

Northwestern +9.5 at -110 for 2 units. Michigan State’s kicker and offense are bad. The tall grass of Northwestern is a weirdly tough environment. MSU doesn’t have a left tackle. The have 3 LTs injured. In a low-scoring game, I will take the home-team and the points.

Wisconsin ML at -170 for 4 units. Michigan’s defensive line is not what it has been in past years. Wisconsin has one of the best running games in football, again. The Wisconsin offense will outpace Michigan’s offense..

North Carolina ML at -135 for 4 units. App State fans and Mack being Back have sold out Kenan Memorial Stadium. Appalachian State’s Qb, Zac Thomas, was the Sun Belt player of the year last year, and he has looked great again this year. Sam Howell of UNC did not play well in the first half against Wake Forest last week, but the freshman has 6 touchdowns and 0 interceptions so far this season. Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome are talented playmakers that should find space against the App State defense. North Carolina will be able to put up points. I expect North Carolina to win and score in the 30s or 40s. 

UTEP +14.5 at -112 for 2 units. Everybody will be watching Notre Dame at Georgia, but I think there is money to be made on UTEP Saturday night. Nevada lost to Oregon 77-6 and only beat Weber State last week by 6. UTEP are going to run the ball, their best wideout, Tre’Shon Wolf (awesome name) only has 3 catches this season. I like UTEP to slow the game down and cover the points. The Miners of UTEP are not great by any means, but Nevada’s weak o-line and UTEP’s ability to run the ball should get them the cover. Good teams win, great teams cover.

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