Category: Uncategorized

18-18 on MLB down 2.28 units

Tilted a little bit last night but it worked. Let’s get back to being a little more disciplined.

Braves ML at -130 for 3 units. Similar starting pitchers here. Homer Bailey has given up more home runs for the Reds than Sean Newcomb has for the Braves. Braves are 7-1 in day games. Reds are 1-10. Newcomb also looked better last time out than Bailey. I just think the Braves are better and I thought this line would be closer to -150 so I am taking the value.

Diamondbacks ML at +106 for 3 units. Matt Koch is a better pitcher than Ben Lively. Both of these pitchers are young. Lively had a “quality” start last time out, but if you look closer, he got out of a few tight spots and still did not get a win. Lively has given up more than 6 hits in every other MLB start. Koch looked good last time out vs the Padres, but the Diamondbacks only got 1 hit in that game. I expect more run support for Koch here.

Indians ML at -108 for 3 units. Similar angle to the Diamondbacks game. I like Mike Clevinger more than James Paxton. The have pitched the same amount of innings and Paxton has given up 3 more homers and 10 more baserunners. Paxton gave up 6 runs last time vs the Indians and is 0-3 vs them in his career.

Rays Orioles over 7.5 at -120 for 3 units. Chris Archer has been hanging his slider this year. Past 4 Tampa Bay games have gone over. Dylan Bundy has a 6.26 ERA vs the Rays in his career. Bundy has been pitching better for the O’s this year and has shown he is their Ace. Tampa’s bats are hot and these Aces arn’t good enough to warrant the low over/under number of 7.5.

Brewers ML at +142 for 2 units. Coin flip game here. Brewers are on an 8 game winning streak. Chase Anderson and Kyle Hendricks have been eerily similar this season, but Anderson has been a little bit better by my estimation. Cubs are up 3-1 on the season series. I think that number comes down towards the mean because the Cubs haven’t shown me they are that much better than the Brew Crew this season.

 

30-30-4 in Hockey up 5.53 units

Bruins ML at -167 for 2 units. Bruins can’t lose to the Leafs 3 games in a row right? The only thing that is stopping me from making this a stronger play is the tragic Toronto van attack. The Leafs could rally behind this tragedy, kinda like the Bruins did in 2013 after their marathon tragedy. The Bruins front line will play a lot better than they have the last few games. The better team usually wins in a 7 game series, I think the Bruins are the better team.

14-16-1 on NBA Playoffs up 7.37 units

Won my big unit play again but neither over hit. Life is too short to bet the under. Thank you Meek Mill for making that 76ers bet the easiest bet since Mayweather.

Gilbert Arenas hates this Bucks Celtics series. Bucks role players just can’t make 3s away from home. Giannis was quiet in Game 5 and will need to takeover in Game 6 if the Bucks want to survive. 76ers won the game and the series behind a big 3rd quarter. The Heat just did not have the rebounding or 3-point shooting to compete with the 76ers. Warriors didn’t look good, but they won the series against the Spurs. Draymond had 17 points and 19 rebounds in the deciding Game 5.

Raptors ML at -320 for 3 units. Raptors were up by 14 in the 3rd quarter of their last loss. I do not think they will let a win slip away at home. Dwayne Casey please let somebody besides Lowry guard John Wall. Ibaka and Delon Wright will have more confidence and play better at home. DeRozan knows he made some mistakes at the end of the last game and should be able to correct them.

Pacers +6 for 1 unit. Pacers have not lost by more than 4 all series. Oladipo has to play better than he did last game. Cavs are 1-3 against the spread this series. I just like this Pacers team. The Pacers have 4 players I would want on my playoff team (Oladipo, Bojan, Myles Turner, and Darren Collison). The Cavs only have 3 players I would want on my playoff team (Lebron, Kevin Love, and Korver). Kevin Love is banged up too. Lebron is still Lebron, but these games have been close and I expect that to continue.

Rockets -12 for 2 units. Rockets won the last game by 19. Timberwolves can’t guard the Rockets and their 3-point shooting. Chris Paul and James Harden seemed to have turned it around after a poor end to the regular season. Poor compared to what they did all season. I could see the Timberwolves getting down big in this one and “giving up”. Rockets missed shots for the first 3 games of this series, but they have turned it around now. Look for the Rockets to end the series in Houston tonight.

Jazz +4 for 2 units. I have been betting the Thunder and the overs in this series. I am going to quit doing that now, so the Thunder will most likely blow out the Jazz out tonight. Thunder have not been playing defense and the iso ball hasn’t worked except for Game 1. Westbrook and Melo have been bad this series. I expect the Jazz defense and their better coaching to prevail tonight.

 

 

16-17 on MLB down 7.09 units

Going back to what got me up units early in the season. Fading bad pitchers. I am chasing losses a little bit today so tail at your own risk.

Braves ML at -105 for 5 units. Braves can’t lose 3 in a row to the Reds can they? Brandon Finnegan is supposed to be a great pitcher, but I just have not seen it this year. Finnegan leaves too many balls up in the strike zone and gets behind batters. Finnegan has given up 19 baserunners in 7 innings. Matt Wisler has given up 2 baserunners in 7 innings for the Braves.

Rays ML at +101 for 5 units. Alex Cobb has made me money betting against him this season. I am not going to stop fading him now. Cobb will throw against his old team today, which provides an interesting wrinkle. Cobb has given up 22 baserunners in 7 innings. Orioles have lost 3 in a row while the Rays have won 4 in a row. Rays have scored 26 runs in their last 3 games.

Athletics ML at -105 for 5 units. Graveman has been bad this season, but he looked better in his last start vs the Red Sox retiring 11 in a row at one point. Doug Fister has been bad vs the A’s in his career. The A’s have hit right handers better this season. Adrian Beltre is now out for the Rangers. Jed Lowrie has been smacking the ball for the Athletics. Going with the better team here.

4-1 on tennis up 1.98 units

Kei Nishikori at -472 for 3 units. High juice for a player coming off his first long tournament after an injury, but Kei likes Barcelona. Kei won this event in 2014 and 2015. Winning this event may be tough this time around because Nadal is in his quarter (Nadal beat Kei in the finals in Monte Carlo last week after an 11 hour match). Nevertheless, Nishikori should be able to handle Garcia-Lopez as he is 3-0 against the spaniard in his career.

Benoit Paire +3 at -108 for 1 unit. Betting on a Paire spread is always tough because if he gets down in a set, he could give up like he did in Morocco. I just think there is too much value here. Paire won the last meeting 2 sets to none and that match was also in Spain on clay. Carreno-Busta is the more consistent player, but Paire seems to have the higher ceiling. Paire made it to the semifinal of this tournament in 2016. Also, Paire holds the 3-2 advantage against Carreno-Busta on clay.

 

13-14-1 on NBA Playoffs up 6.67 units 

My goal is to be up 20 units by the end of these playoffs, but I will settle for 15 units. Let’s get it.

Rockets beat the T’Wolves behind a franchise playoff record quarter with 50 points in the third. Rockets had 7 turnovers, Timberwolves had 17. Harden dropped 36 points on 12/26 shooting. The Jazz took a commanding 3-1 lead. Donovan Mitchell is fun to watch. Paul George was the only 1 of the “Big 3” to show up… again. Westbrook has the worst plus/minus (-45) and FG% (36%) on the Thunder in these playoffs.

Bucks Celtics over 203 for 2 units. Every over has hit in this series and I’ve been betting them. The average total in this series has been right around 212. I think the number should be about 209 so I am taking what I perceive as value here.

76ers -10 for 4 units. 76ers win by 16.

Spurs Warriors over 203.5 for 1 unit. The over is 2-2 in this series. This is the lowest over/under number so far. I think the Warriors will put up a lot of points in this one. Spurs shot 54% from deep last game. That number will come down a little, but it is a good sign after they shot 24% in the first 3 games. Warriors will play better than last game and if the Spurs play as well as they did last game, this over will hit.

30-29-4 in Hockey up 8.53 units

Penguins were down early in the game, but they dominated the second period on the way to a series win. The Flyers just did not have the defense or firepower to keep up with their rivals. Predators finished their series as well. The Avalanche did not have the answers for Nashville’s attack.

Bruins ML at -118 for 3 units. Rask should play better for the Bruins than last game. I just think the Bruins end the series tonight. The Bruins will start this game strong because of how soundly they got outplayed in the 1st period last game. Marchand and the Bruins will win this game.

 

12-13-1 on NBA Playoffs up 4.86 units

The Bucks evened the series behind Giannis. Jaylen Brown dropped 34 points for the Celtics, but it was not enough. LaMarcus Aldridge had a double-double and the Spurs avoided the sweep. The Wizards also evened their series. Wall and Beal were better than DeRozan and Lowry in Game 4. Kyle Korver and Lebron James evened the series vs the Pacers. Oladipo was only 5-20 from the field. The Lance/Lebron feud is always fun to watch.

Rockets -6 for 3 units. Rockets will step up and play better than they did last game. The Rockets will make adjustments and James Harden won’t get stopped by Taj Gibson again. Timberwolves shot the ball well in Game 3, but a lot of that was lack of defensive effort from Houston. Rockets will be better at guarding the drive and kicks in this one.

Thunder +4.5 for 1 unit. Westbrook did a lot of talking about Rubio after the Game 3 loss to the Jazz. Let’s see if he can back it up on the court. Carmelo has been struggling this season and “Playoff P” hasn’t done much since Game 1. I think this will be a close game so I am taking the points. Donovan Mitchell and Rubio have been fun to watch this series.

10-11-1 on NBA Playoffs up 2.35 units

76ers did just enough to cover and win the game vs. the Heat. J.J. Redick had 24 points on 2-9 shooting from 3-point land. Wade looked pretty good. Anthony Davis, Playoff Rondo, and Jrue swept the Blazers. The T’Wolves balanced attack got one back against the Rockets. The Jazz took the series lead over the Thunder. Rubio dropped the triple double. Melo shot well..

It is an overs kinda Sunday. The playoffs have lower over values, so I will take them.

Celtics Bucks over 203 for 2 units. Every game has gone over this series. Why quit now?

Warriors Spurs over 205 for 2 units. Last two games have gone over in this one. First game missed the over by 1 point.

Raptors ML at -134 for 1 unit. Bounce back game. DeRozan and crew can’t let the Wizards back in this series. Ibaka needs to have a big game.

Cavs -1 for 4 units. Said if the Cavs lost the last game, I would bet them heavy in this game. Here we are. Lebron will score 35+ points.

 

16-15 on MLB down 2.09 units

Tigers ML at -160 for 3 units. Skoglund fade. Skoglund has given up 17 baserunners and 2 home runs in 9 innings this season. Liriano has been pitching better than Skoglund this season. Tigers are getting hot, Royals are not.

Pirates ML at +126 for 2 units. This game is a coin flip according to me. So I will take the team at plus money. Pirates have beat the Phillies 3 games in a row and now get Trevor Williams on the mound.