Month: October 2018

Soccer

Soccer Europe League October 4th

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35-25-5 on Soccer since World Cup up 22.73 units

Champions League was awesome yesterday. The highlights were Neymar’s hat-trick (including two free kick goals) and this screaming volley by Rakitic. On to Europa…

Sevilla at -105 for 5 units. Sevilla are the hottest team in Europe right now. Sevilla has scored 17 goals in their last 4 games, which included a 3-0 win against Real Madrid. This will be Krasnodar and Sevilla’s first ever meeting. Krasnodar have been doing well in Russia, as they just beat Zenit 3-0. Quincy Promes just transferred from Russia to Sevilla and enjoyed playing Krasnodar in his time there (4 goals in 8 games). Ben Yedder and Banega both had two goals in the first group game for Sevilla. Ben Yedder is 6th and Andre Silva is 1st in La Liga in goals scored, not Messi, Suarez, Bale, Aspas, or Benzema. Krasnodar, even at home, won’t be able to keep up with Sevilla’s offense.

Arsenal at -250 for 4 units. Arsenal have won 7 in a row. They will want to win this game to essentially secure the group early on. Aubameyang had two goals last time out in this competition. Qarabag have only won one game at home against teams from the better leagues in the group stage. Arsenal are on a 25 year European trophy drought. They take one more step towards ending that today.

Besiktas pk/-.5 at +102 for 2 units. Besiktas just have more talent than Malmo. Besiktas has not lost a game since August 28th. The Istanbul club has scored first in each of their last 6 matches. Ryan Babel, Pepe, Quaresma, Negredo, Vagner Love, Gonul, and Hutchinson should show enough class to get a win here.

Tennis

Tennis October 4th

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52-26-3 on tennis up 16.52 units

Kevin Anderson at -193 for 7 units. Anderson has made it past the second round in 13 of 14 tournaments this season. Tiafoe has already lost Anderson twice this season. Tiafoe got away from his losing ways by beating out of form Marterer. He is not in good enough form to beat Anderson.

Baseball

MLB October 3rd

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70-73 on the MLB down 5.55 units

Athletics at +174 for 4 units. Severino is 5-6 with a 5.57 ERA in his last 12 starts. Severino allowed 6 runs last time he played Oakland on September 5th. Athletics will string together some hits. Yankees broke a major league record for homers, hitting 227 on the season. Oakland actually hit more road homers this season than New York. Yankees started the season hot, Athletics finished the season hot. There is too much value in this play to pass up. Liam Hedriks is starting for Oakland. He has not pitched more than two innings in any of his 25 appearances this season, but the A’s have the 3rd-best bullpen in the MLB.

Hockey

Hockey October 3rd

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12-7-6 on Hockey this season up 13.16 units

Both my Finnish hockey bets pushed last time out. Up 13 units on the season, so I am not going to stop now. NHL starts tomorrow, but for now…. It is all Finland baby. Feel good about these today.

TPS at -103 for 5 units. TPS have not lost on the road this season. Assat has not won at home this season. TPS Turku average over 3 goals a game. Assat averages under 2. Also, Turku has a better defense.

KalPa -1 at +119 for 4 units. KooKoo have the worst defense in the league and have lost all 3 away games this season by 2 or more goals.

HIFK pk at -119 for 4 units. Helsinki have the best offense in the league so I will side with them here. HIFK are good value at this price even against a good Ilves team. HIFK have the top scorer in the league in Erik Thorell.

Soccer

Champions League Soccer October 3rd

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Aguero and David Silva got the goals to give Manchester City a much needed 3 points against Hoffenheim. Silva is a sneaky little guy. City are now second in the group behind Lyon, who they lost to. Lyon did well to come back and tie Shakhtar Donetsk after being down 2-0. Ajax are in fantastic form in their domestic league and this carried over as they tied Bayern Munich in the Allianz Arena 1-1. Boateng is not a world class defender anymore. Hummels scored the goal on a quality header for Munich.

Juventus took care of business and outclassed Young Boys. Juve did not have Ronaldo, who was serving his red card suspension. Bonucci has this filthy long ball to Dybala. Dybala placed into the back of the net with a suave kind of calmness. Juventus have won 9 games to start this season, a club record.

Juve have not lost, Real Madrid lost again today. These two clubs will always be linked in my mind due to Ronaldo. CSKA Moscow was like, okay Real, you’re going not going to start Isco, Modric, Marcelo, Ramos, and Bale? We are going to beat you then and they did. Real Madrid and Manchester United are not living up to their club’s lofty history.

Manchester United put in another lackluster performance against Valencia. Eric Bailly had this terrible shot, which sums up United’s season nicely I think. Bailly is an interesting human. Here is a twitter thread of him doing ridiculous stuff. Worth the watch just for his interactions with Zlatan Ibrahimovic among a myriad of other things.

Benfica had not won on the road in a good while. They went up 2-0 on Athens, then Ruben Dias got a second yellow right before halftime. Athens scored 2 in a row to tie it, but Semedo did not let his team lose. Roma beat Plzen 5-0 and Dzeko got his second hat-trick against them in Rome in as many home matches.

34-24-5 on Soccer since World Cup up 23.06 units

Dortmund/Atletico Madrid Parlay at -150 for 4 units. Dortmund lost to Monaco 6-3 on aggregate last time these two met in this competition. The Germans will want revenge. Borussia have actually lost 4 games at home in a row in the Champions League. Reus has four goals and two assists already this season. Dortmund have scored 11 goals in their past two matches. Monaco only have 1 clean sheet in their past 17 road games. Atletico play Club Brugge at home. Brugge have lost 7 in a row on the road in this competition. Atletico and clean sheets at home go hand in hand.

Liverpool at +116 for 3 units. Liverpool travel to the Stadio San Paolo to take on Napoli. The Reds have not lost yet domestically and just beat PSG. Napoli have to win here after drawing their first game in this group stage. Liverpool averaged 3.15 goals a game in this competition last season and they haven’t slowed down. Firmino, Salah, and Mane will be too much offense for Napoli.

Tennis

Tennis October 3rd

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51-25-2 on tennis up 17.08 units

Should have bet Verdasco straight up instead of games. I thought Monfils would wear down a little more in the second and third set. Verdasco still won the match, but actually won less games. My max play Fognini lost the first set and was down a break in the second set, but then he flipped the switch and won. Some people think Fognini is frustrating because he does not give it his all, but I find him to be the most entertaining player on the ATP tour. Berrettini covered easily due to his ability to save every break point and Leonardo Mayer’s terrible form. Sousa, surprisingly to me, got worked by Rublev.

Del Potro -3 for 2 units. Karen Khachanov got a tough draw here. Karen is 0-8 against the top 5 in his career. Del Potro has already beat him twice this season, covering 3 games both times. Not going to overthink this one.

Medvedev at -139 for 2 units. Daniil Medvedev had an impressive straight set win over the 4 seed, Diego Schwartzman, in the last round. Martin Klizan and Medvedev have had impressive hardcourt season so far. Klizan is 13-4 and Medvedev is 9-3 on the hardcourt. Klizan has a high ceiling, but he is going to have to play a near perfect game to win here. I like Daniil at these odds.

Berrettini at +111 for 2 units. Matteo Berrettini is in better form than Kyle Edmund; however, both players are having their most impressive years to date. Berrettini is having a much better season on hard courts. Edmund is just 11-9 on hard courts this season. Matteo has made to the round of 16 in his past two tournaments and will want to get over the hump here. Edmund won the only previous meeting, but that was on clay when Matteo was still a teenager.

Baseball

MLB October 2nd

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70-72 on the MLB down 2.55 units

Cubs at -130 for 3 units. Cubs have a bullpen that is about 2 ERA points better. Rizzo, Bryant, Murphy, and Lester should be enough for the Cubs here. Rockies have had to go from Colorado, to LA, to Chicago in two days. Colorado’s offense is pretty bad on the road. Cubs had a chance to beat the Brew Crew, but the Cubs could not get a hit against Milwaukee’s stellar bullpen. Cubs have an OPS of almost .800 against lefties at home. Kyle Freeland, the pitcher for the Rockies, is a lefty. Cubs have the experience, the home-field advantage (travel included), and a better bullpen.

Hockey

Hockey October 2nd

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12-7-4 on Hockey this season up 13.16 units

Going back to the SM Liiga in Finland. It has been good to me in waiting for the NHL to start. My friend showed me these Finnish overs a while back and I have been making money ever since. Shoutout to Neal. No overs today, just some leans on the outcomes of the games.

Jukurit pk at +121 for 2 units. Jukurit has more points on the season and a better defense. They had some goalie struggles earlier in the season, but those seemed to have been worked out. Jukurit has lost every game at home this season, I think that changes today against JYP. JYP has lost two in a row.

Vaasan Sport pk at +133 for 2 units. Tappara has less points on more games than Vaasan early in this season. Vaasan has not lost a game in regular time at home all season. Just a hunch on this one.

Tennis

Tennis October 2nd

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49-23-2 on tennis up 15.75 units

Berrettini -3 for 3 units. Matteo Berrettini came back after going down a set to beat Leonardo Mayer last time they met. Mayer is in a lot worse form now than he was then. This is Leonardo’s first match since he retired at the US Open. Berrettini has the head to head history, the form, and the fitness.

Verdasco -.5 at -103 for 3 units. Monfils does not have the fitness or the form. Verdasco is 1-4 against Monfils in his career, but he won the most recent meeting. First time Gael has played here in Beijing. Verdasco got some flack for being rude to a ball boy last week. That should not affect him in this match though.

Sousa at +108 for 3 units. Sousa won the last meeting against Rublev and he is in better form. Rublev has been pretty bad since returning from his injury. Sousa made it to the round of 16 at the US Open and the semi-final at Chengdu recently. Going with the player with the better form, fitness, and H2H history.

Fognini at -227 for 10 units. Max play. Radu Albot has a tough draw here. Fognini is the far more talented player and he has been consistent this season. He made it to the final and lost last week. Albot has never won a match on the Asian part of the ATP tour. Fognini has not lost in the first round at this tournament since 2014. He will be comfortable here going for an Italian record 4th ATP tour title this season.

Soccer

Champions League Soccer October 2nd

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32-22-5 on Soccer since World Cup up 21.40 units

Manchester City -1.5 for 2 units. City has not lost an away game since their 3-0 defeat to Liverpool back in April. They lost their first champions league group stage game to Lyon 2-1. They can’t lose two in a row. Aguero, Sterling, and Silva will do enough to cover here. I see this game ending 3-0 or 3-1 for Manchester City. Aguero is going for his 30th champions league goal and I think he gets it.

Benfica at +117 for 2 units. Athens FC’s #10, Marko Livaja and their leftback Helder Lopes are both suspended for this one. That hurts them. Pizzi has been on a goal scoring tear this season for Benfica. Athens is consistent, but I do not think they have the ability to beat this hungry Benfica team.

Roma at -303 for 4 units. Dzeko had a hat-trick last time he met Plzen in Rome. Plzen have won just one of their last 10 away matches. Roma lost to Real Madrid 3-0 in their first group stage game, so they have to get 3 points out of this one. In home Serie A games, Roma has scored first in every game this season.