4-3 on tennis down 2.02 units
Stefanos Tsitsipas +3.5 for 4 units. Thiem struggled in the first set of his past two matches to the tune of barely winning a tiebreak. Stefanos is playing a lot better than those opponents Thiem stuggled against. Thiem won 2 sets to 1 (by 4 games) when these two played in March. Stefanos is so young at 19 years old. Another month on tour since the last time these two met will give him the experience he needs to cover this spread and maybe even win the match. Stefanos has looked dominant this week beating #40 Ramos Vinolas and #17 (clay specialist) Diego Schwartzman in straight sets.
Tsitsipas – Thiem over 22 games for 1 unit. I think Thiem loses the first set and then makes a comeback of sorts. Thiem will be ready to play though so I could also see a first set tiebreak win for Thiem and then a 6-4 second set going either way. Last match between these two went over. I think Thiem is the better player, but Stefanos is hotter. I like taking the over in these types of situations.