Category: Tennis

68-39-4 on tennis up 12.46 units

Kevin Anderson at -252 for 5 units. If you follow me, you know I love betting Kevin. The juice doesn’t scare me. Nikoloz Basilashvili struggles against opponents with a serve as strong as Anderson’s. Anderson won the only H2H meeting in straight sets. Anderson has won at least one match in every tournament since London in June.

Marton Fucsovics at -126 for 1 unit. Fucsovics has been in solid form. Making it to the quartefinal in Beijing before losing to Fognini. Felix Auger-Aliassime has the higher ceiling as a tennis player, but he is playing after a short turnaround and retiring last week in Antwerp. Felix is the wildcard here. He has won all his first round wildcard matchups this year, but this one is unique because of the retirement. Fucsovics won 83% of his first serve points and 36% of first return points against Damir Dzumhur. Fucsovics lost to Peter Gojowczyk, but he looked the better player in the match. He only converted 1 of 10 break point opportunities in that match. He will capitalize on those chances in this one.

66-39-4 on tennis up 7.94 units

Tsitsipas at -225 for 5 units.

Tsitsipas -1.5 sets for 2 units at +115 for 2 units. Stefanos has been killing it this year, but he hasn’t won a title yet. He does it today. The young Greek has made it to two finals this year and lost to Nadal both times. Ernests Gulbis is not as talented as Nadal. Gulbis won’t have much left after going from qualifying to the final. Gulbis could win some points with his flat backhand, but his accuracy goes in and out with those. Tsitsipas will have to keep Gulbis on the run much better than Isner did if he wants to win in straight sets. I think he will do this. Stefanos gets one step closer to the top 10 here.

66-35-4 on tennis up 15.94 units

Fabio Fognini at +138 for 2 units. Stefanos Tsitsipas is enjoying the best season of his young life; however, so is the Italian #1. Fognini is still going for an Italian record in 4 ATP World Tour Titles in a season. That should be enough motivation for him. Fognini’s ankle is a worry, but this value is too good to pass up. Stefanos is more atheltic than most players on tour, but not Fognini. Fabio has only lost to Del Potro this month. Tsitsipas struggles against players with good serves (lost to Kevin Anderson in straight sets last tournament). Fognini’s serve will be enough here. The Italian had 7 aces in the first set before Chung retired yesterday. These are two of my favorite players. Should be a good one.

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman at +120 for 2 units. Schwartzman has made it to the finals here the past two years and will look to do it again today. Gael Monfils has not made a final since 2016. Diego beat Gael in straight sets earlier this year, but lost to him 3 years ago. Obviously I put more weight in the matchup that was this year. Monfils is the better player on this surface, but I can’t pass up on this value as Diego loves Antwerp. He has won 9 out of 12 matches here in his career.

John Isner at -204 for 1 unit. I thought this line would be around -270 so I will take the perceived value. Ernests Gulbis is tied in the H2H with Isner 3-3, but Isner has won 3 of the past 4. Gulbis struggled against Jack Sock and only had a 56 first serve percentage. That won’t get it done against Isner.

Andreas Seppi at -132 for 3 units. Both players are capable of winning this match and are fairly even. I like Seppi because he has won the past two matches between these two on this surface in straight sets. Adrian Mannarino will be happy making it this far as he lost 6 matches in a row recently. Mannarino last beat Seppi on a hardcourt a decade ago. Mannarino has a much easier path to this semifinal. Adrian has not beat a player of Seppi’s caliber in a while.

65-33-4 on tennis up 17.00 units

Richard Gasquet at -155 for 3 units. Gasquet beat Jan-Lennard Struff in straight sets at this tournament two years ago. Gasquet has only lost to Del Potro and Nishikori this month. Struff is in fine form too, but he struggled a little bit against clay court specialist Feliciano Lopez. Gasquet has won 7 titles at indoor hardcourts in his career. Going with the player with more ability and the higher ceiling.

Giles Simon at -156 for 1 unit. Schwatzman won their only previous meeting, but Simon did not have match fitness or form going into that match. Now it is Diego Schwartzman who has less form and fitness. Simon has looked better in this tournament losing only 6 games combined to Sergiy Stakhovsky and Mackenzie McDonald. Diego needed two and a half hours to beat Cameron Norrie unconvincingly. Schwartzman is better on clay than he is in these conditions and he is only 1-3 since the US Open.

Simon/Gasquet parlay for 2 units to win 3.23 units.

62-35-4 on tennis up 12.29 units

Diego Schwartzman at -165 for 2 units. Diego has only won 10 matches on indoor hardcourts in his professional life, but 7 of them are here at Antwerp. He was the runner-up at this tournament this past two years losing to Gasquet and Tsonga. Schwartzman is not in the best form, but this location will get him right. Cameron Norrie can take advantage of Diego’s poor form here, but he does not have enough experience on hardcourts at this level. Schwartzman will use his solid return game here to get the win.

Pierre-Hughes Herbert at -115 for 2 units. This is strictly a form bet. Herbert is in better form than Seppi. Seppi does have the win in the H2H on hardcourt, but that was 6 years ago. Not going to overthink this one.

Philipp Kohlschreiber at +130 for 2 units. Fernando Verdasco is in similar form compared to Kohlschreiber, although Verdasco does have a little more fitness. I like Philipp on this surface though. The German leads the H2H 5-4 and has won the only other indoor hardcourt match. This should be a fairly even match so I will take the plus money. Philipp has the H2H advantage and the surface advantage; however, Verdasco does have more fitness as mentioned above. Should be a fun one.

Ivashka/Fognini/Isner Parlay for 2 units to win 2.9 units. Isner has never lost a set to Bradley Klahn (5-0). Isner has only lost his serve once against Klahn, but that was when he already had a two break advantage in the set. Both are strong servers, but Isner is the better returner. If there is going to be a player to lose this parlay, it’ll be Fognini. He withdrew in his last match vs Del Potro due to an ankle injury. If Fognini wants to win, he will. I love watching his lackadaisical athletic play. Ivashka beat Salvatore Caruso in straight sets on this surface already. Ivashka is the more reliable player. Caruso barely beat an out-of-form Bhambri and won’t be up to the task of winning another match here.

59-34-4 on tennis up 11.19 units

Richard Gasquet at -370 for 2 units. Jiri Vesely has only won 3 hardcourt matches at this level in his entire career. Gasquet can become the French #1 if he does well here as Lucas Pouille had an early exit. Gasquet is 4-0 in this tournament, winning his only other appearance in 2014.

Hyeon Chung at -231 for 2 units. Chung finally won in straight sets last time out and looked to be in his Australian Open form that he showcased earlier this season. Denis Kudla and Chung are 5-5 in their last 10 matches. Chung is far more talented and should take care of business in this one.

Marco Cecchinato at +135 for 2 units. Adrian Mannarino came back from a set down to beat Cecchinato in their only other meeting. Cecchinato is in much better form now though. Marco had not won a hardcourt match at this level before 2018, but now has two titles this season on hardcourt (Budapest and Umag). Adrian has only won one of his last 7 matches. Mannarino is 22-27 on the season and will most likely have his first losing season on tour this year. The Frenchman (Mannarino) has not won back 2 back matches in his last 10 tournaments. This line is the way it is because of their H2H history, but Marco’s serve and return game has looked a lot better since then. Going with the #1 seed at plus money.

Chung/Gasquet Parlay for 2 units to win 1.69 units. Chung and Gasquet are the far more talented players in their respective matchups so why not parlay them?

59-31-3 on tennis up 18.19 units

Klizan/Millman/Dzumhur parlay for 2 units to win 6.12 units. Klizan has won the last two meetings against Andreas Seppi in straight sets. Also, Seppi has lost 7 of his last 10 matches, while Klizan has won 7 of his last 10 matches. Millman beat Popyrin in straight sets the only other time they have met on hardcourt. Millman hasn’t won a set since the US Open (only played in one tournament since then), but he will win this match. Damir Dzumhur is defending his title here. Damir has been in awful form, but he is much more talented than Egor Gerasimov. The Bosnian #1 won the only H2H meeting in straight sets.

Simon/Kukushkin parlay for 2 units to win 2.14 units. Gilles Simon has won all 3 H2H meetings against Sergiy Stakhovsky. Simon struggles against strong servers, Sergiy is more of a return player and that is why Simon has such a positive history against him. Mikhail Kukushkin has a 7-2 lead in the H2H against Evgeny Donskoy. Mikhail has made it to the semi-final or further here 3 times. Donskoy has lost 7 matches in a row.

Taylor Fritz at +113 for 3 units. Fritz is not as talented as Hyeon Chung, but he is in better form. Chung also lacks the fitness needed to go far in a tournament. Chung has been losing to players with way less talent than Fritz. Chung should be the heavy favorite, but he is a soft favorite, which makes me bet against him and this “fishy at first” line.

Denis Istomin at +113 for 3 units. Istomin won the only other meeting on the hardcourt in straight sets. Istomin is in better form as of late. Berankis is only here as a lucky loser. Uzbek #1 Denis Istomin won his last opening round meeting here. Istomin has won 5 of his last 7 opening round matchups here in Moscow. Istomin has a better history at this tournament, is in better form, and has the H2H history on this surface.

57-29-3 on tennis up 22.93 units

Stefanos Tsitsipas +2 at -112 for 6 units. Let me start off by saying I have loved watching both these players while they enjoy their best seasons to date. If you’re biased towards both players are you biased at all? Stefanos Tsitsipas has beat Kevin Anderson in their only 2 matches against each other. Kevin Anderson has never won a set against the young Greek that did not end in a tiebreak, which makes this +2 extra appealing. I could see Kevin Anderson winning this match, but winning less games. Stefanos has won 19 outdoor hardcourt matches this season! An amazing accomplishment for a guy that just turned 20 in August. Tsitsipas has a lot to play for here as he needs to make the quarterfinals to stay alive in The Race for London. Also, he is one of the 14 players still trying to make it to the ATP World Tour Finals. Kevin Anderson has managed to win more than one match here in Shanghai only once in his career. This will be a tight contest, but Stefanos is in better form, has the H2H history, and has more to play for (Kevin Anderson can lose this match and still make The Race for London).

Alexander Zverev at -315 for 4 units. Zverev is 5-1 against players under the age of 21 in the past year. His only loss coming to the aforementioned Stefanos Tsitsipas. Alex De Minaur, Zverev’s opponent today, is under the age of 21. Zverev has won the previous two meeting between these two. The last one was not really close either. The German #1 has never made it past this stage at this tournament, even though he won the first set against Tsonga two years ago, and Del Potro last year before losing the match to both. Alex De Minaur has won back 2 back straight set matches for just the second time this year, but Zverev will be too much for him to handle.

Kyle Edmund at -210 for 2 units. Kyle Edmund needs this win for The Race to London. Edmund is a better player than Nicolas Jarry, but Jarry did just beat 5th seed Marin Cilic. Marin has not had much match-time since the US Open though, not to take away from Jarry. Edmund posted his best result in Asia last week in Beijing and will be looking to the same this week. Both these players are in solid form, so I will take the player with the higher ceiling and “more” to play for.

Sam Querrey at +170 for 1 unit. Kei Nishikori leads the H2H 5-4, but lost the last matchup between these two. Querrey has looked a lot better in Asia than he did in the months before. Querrey already has 27 aces in this tournament and won 87% of his serve points against a great returner in Schwartzman. Nishikori is always hard to bet on or against because he retires from matches. The long run he had in Tokyo followed by a quick turnaround to Shanghai makes Sam a little easier to bet on. Nishikori advanced to the championship in Tokyo last week before losing, but he did not have to beat anybody that great to get there. This is a value play.

55-28-3 on tennis up 19.59 units

Nikoloz Basilashvili at +215 for 1 unit. Nikoloz has not lost a set in his past 5 matches that included wins against Del Potro and Kyle Edmund among others. Alexander Zverev should still be the favorite, but not this heavy of one. Zverev has lost in his past 4 tournaments to underdogs like this. The German got a bye in the first round so he could come out a little flat. The Georgian #1 has a solid chance in this one.

Stefanos Tsitsipas at +119 for 3 units. Stefanos made it to the quarterfinals at Tokyo last week, which is a career best result for the 20-year-old Greek in Asia. Tsitsipas won 3 matches in his debut here last season. Karen Khachanov lost to Stefanos in qualifications last season at this Shanghai tournament. That is the only other meeting between these two up and comers. Tsitsipas has been in better form all year, has done well in his only other Shanghai appearance, and has the H2H result.

Kevin Anderson at -260 for 2 units. Anderson goes up against Mikhail Kukushkin here. Anderson leads the H2H 3-1, winning the past 3 matchups. Mikhail has won a set in all of those loses though. Anderson is having the best season of his career in 2018 with 43 wins. Just think the gap in talent is too much for the Kazakh #1 here, even though Anderson looked a little shaky in Tokyo last week. Anderson’s serve is too strong and he will get enough “easy” points to move on in this one.

54-27-3 on tennis up 18.86 units

Richard Gasquet at -220 for 6 units. This is an in-form fit player against an out-of-form player lacking fitness. Leonardo Mayer has not won a match since August 20th. Gasquet got to the semi-finals last week and made it to the quarterfinals of this tournament last season. Gasquet finally looks to be getting back to his former World #7 form. Mayer just does not have the match time to win this one. The two things keeping me from making this a max play are that Mayer won the most recent meeting between these and that Mayer almost beat Federer in this tournament in 2014.

Marton Fucsovics at -145 for 2 units. Fucsovics is just in better form than Peter Gojowczyk. Gojowczyk’s two most recent wins are against out-of-form players Tsonga and Jack Sock. Marton made it to the quarterfinal last week in Beijing before losing to Fabio Fognini. The H2H is tied at 1-1, but Fucsovics won the most recent meeting. Not much between these two, so I will take the player that is playing better tennis.