Category: Football

62-46-5 on the NFL up 35.61 units

Broncos -2.5/Over 42.5 Parlay risking 2 units to win 5.27 units. I’ve lost 3 times this season betting against the Raiders… No way I can lose 4 times. The Raiders suck. Denver averages 3 sacks a game and they will be able to pressure Carr. Carr has been sacked a career high 47 times this season. Reminds me of David Carr on the Texans. Lindsay will reach 1,000 yards rushing tonight in his rookie season for Denver. The Broncos take out a little frustration on the Raiders tonight. I smell a defensive/special teams touchdown in this one. Neither team has a great defense though… Jared Cook will find some holes in the Broncos secondary. The Broncos ability to run the ball and get pressure on Carr wins them this game.

61-45-5 on the NFL up 32.19 units

Back to my bread and butter.

Vikings/Falcons/Packers/Bears Parlay risking 2 units to win 9.41 units. The Vikings will be able to sack Stafford. Dalvin Cook got going last week. Kirk Cousins is 6-1 in his career when he starts and throws the ball less than 25 times. Feed the Cook. Cam Newton is out. Matt Ryan is 3rd in the league in passing yards. If the Falcons can stop McCaffrey, they will win this game easily.

Aaron Rodgers is playing to focus on timing with his young wideouts. Packers are practicing for next year in this one. Rodgers doesn’t like to lose and if he is playing I have to bet on them against the Jets. Packers are winless on the road this season. They have never lost every road game in a 16 game season. Rodgers knows this. Bears are 10-0 this season when they hold their opponent to less than 24 points. Trubisky has struggled throwing it deep since his return from injury, which keeps me from betting the spread. I trust Chicago’s defense to get the win though.

Chiefs at -125 for 6 units. The Seahawks had way too many penalties last week in their loss to the 49ers. KC left the Chargers wideouts way too open in blowing two 14 points leads. Seattle is 0-4 this season against top 10 offenses. KC has the best offense. Must win game for both teams. Travis Kelce will have to be stopped, which will leave Tyreek Hill and others open. Seattle will have to play a near perfect game to win this one. I don’t think they will. Seattle was over 50% on 3rd and 4th down last week and had no turnovers, but still lost to the 49ers. Seattle is a tough place to play, but Mahomes and Reid will be ready.

48-35 on College Football this season up 32.21 units

4-3 on Bowls up 2.88 units

Memphis -3 at -120 for 5 units. I could give you “advanced” numbers, but I have to wrap Christmas presents. Just know Memphis has a better ATS record, offense, defense, QB, and are closer to the game location. This should be -7. I can’t see Wake Forest stopping Darrell Henderson running the ball.

Houston/Army under 60 for 2 units. I’ll keep this one simple too.. Army haven’t had a game over this number all year. ALL YEAR!! I have only watched 2 Houston games this season, but I don’t think they are good enough to knock Army off their gameplan. Houston’s two best players are sitting this one out. Army runs the ball too much for this over to hit.

Buffalo/Troy over 49 for 2 units. Buffalo averages 35 points a game and struggles against good running backs. BJ Smith should eat for Troy. I think Buffalo is better, but proximity of the game to Troy and Neal Brown’s 2-0 bowl record with Troy make me stay away from picking a winner.

46-34 on College Football this season up 29.13 units

You know it is Bowl Season when FIU plays Toledo at noon on a Friday in the Bahamas. I love it.

Toledo -7 at -105 for 2 units.

Toledo/FIU over 57 for 4 units. Toledo scores over 41 points a game. The Rockets have scored over 50 in their last 2. FIU tends to pass the ball more than they run. FIU will be without their starting QB as Butch David didn’t want to risk further injury. Davis said, “If the bowl game was another week or 10 days” he would have played. Sounds like Butch is throwing major shade at his team for not making the college football playoff… Nah but seriously, Toledo is going to run it up. Cody Thompson, Diontae Johnson and Jon’Vea Johnson are all good wideouts for Toledo. FIU is 1-4 in games where their opponent scores more than 25 points.

BYU -10 at -150 for 2 units. Smurf Turf Blue Field time. BYU wins easily. Zach Wilson is solid. BYU has already lost on this field this season against Boise, but the get a win here.

59-44-5 on the NFL up 30.79 units

Shoutout to the Browns. Winning in Denver isn’t easy, even this year. Denver one upped the Falcons and ran out of a secondary. Baker Mayfield is good. Nick Chubb is good. Myles Garrett is good. Jabrill Peppers is good. Denzel Ward is good. It’s amazing how much talent you can put together when you don’t have a winning season for over 10 years. I would fire Vance Joseph and draft Kyler Murray if I was the Broncos. I know I know, Kyler is playing baseball.. but make him think about it. Work some magic Elway.

A lot of games are hard for me to get a read on this week, like Giants +1 at home against the Titans in what could be ugly weather and the Packers +5 against the Bears. There are some spots I like however…

Cowboys at +150 for 3 units. Cowboys are 6-1 at home. I know I know this game is in Indy, but let’s face it… all the fans will be wearing blue and it is in a dome. Dak will be confused and think he is playing at home when he looks up and sees Jerry in a box with all that blue. Seriously though, I am not convinced Indy will be able to stop Elliot. Darius Leonard leads the league in tackles (17 tackles ahead of Blake Martinez) for the Colts, but I don’t think even he will be able to do enough against the Cowboys rushing attack. This will be the best defense Indy has faced all year.. I am taking the value here.

Vikings/Ravens Parlay at -156 for 3 units. Two home teams against inferior competition here. The Dolphins won their Super Bowl last week. The Dolphins are 32% on 3rd down, while the Vikings complete 40% of 3rd downs. Minnesota only allows teams to convert 29% of their 3rd downs against them. The Vikings looked bad against the Seahawks, but they rebound here at home.

The Bucs can technically still make the playoffs (second longest playoff drought behind the Browns). The Ravens defense should control this game though. Winston playing in one of the crab capitals of the world has to be distracting for him. He ain’t eating no W’s today. 4th meeting between Heisman winning Qbs this season. The home QB has won every time. Tampa Bay just turns the ball over too much here. Taking the home team on this cold Baltimore day.

Steelers at +116 for 3 units. Patriots are 3-4 on the road this season. You ready for this stat? Hold on to something… Teams that that lose on a walkoff TD are 1-10 in their next game if it is on the road in the last 18 years. Bam. Tom Brady is 8-2 against Big Ben, but I think Ben gets one back today. I am not going to mention the Jesse James overturned touchdown. I’m not going to mention it so don’t worry Pittsburgh fans… Pats allow over 370 yards a game. AB and JuJu should have their way.

58-44-4 on the NFL up 26.20 units

Texans -7 at +104 for 4 units. I’ve bet on the Jets thrice this year (against Broncos, Colts, and Titans) and won all 3. Doesn’t mean I like betting on them though. Todd Bowles is simply not a good head coach. Texans defensive line will eat. DeAndre Hopkins can’t be covered by the whole city of New York. Texans coming off a loss. Houston is the second most sacked team in the league, but they will focus on quick throws and fixing that in this game. Watson has thrown only 2 interceptions since week 8.

Sam Darnold has struggled against good defenses (Ex: Vikings) and I expect that to continue. Darnold leads the league with 15 interceptions. He has only played 10 games. I don’t know why people thought his interception problems at USC wouldn’t carry over.. but they have. Get right game for the Texans. Houston are better on 3rd down, better at taking care of the ball, better at pressuring the QB.. you get it.

Browns at +115 for 4 units. I don’t think Vance Joseph is a great head coach either. Browns have looked a lot better since firing Hue Jackson and playing Nick Chubb. Surprise. Surprise. Gregg Williams has has many wins as Hue Jackson did in 40 games. Why the hell does Gregg’s name have two G’s in his name. That’s annoying. Myles Garrett and Von Miller, two former Aggies, are some of the best rushers in the league and get to show off for each other today. Mayfield has one of the highest YPG for a rookie ever. Broncos have won 11 straight against Cleveland, but that has a good chance of changing today. I think this game will be close, so I will take the team at plus money. If one team has the ability to blow the other out, I think it is the Browns though.

44-31 on College Football this season up 29.33 units

I made 43 bets on bowl games last year and went up around 10 units, while going 23-20. I think I will do a little better this season as I have watched a lot of college football this year. Let’s get it.

Autonation Cure Bowl – Tulane Green Wave Vs. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns

Louisiana +3.5 for 2 units. The Ragin’ Cajuns score over 32 points a game behind their two running backs, who both have over 950 rushing yards on the season (Trey Ragas and Elijah Mitchell). Billy Napier has done a great job with this team in his first year. The underdog has covered the last 5 times these two have met. Tulane is on their second Qb, Justin McMillan. Justin is 4-1 with the starting job. This should be a fun rivalry game in Orlando Florida. I’m taking the points in what should be a close game.

New Mexico Bowl – North Texas Mean Green Vs Utah State Aggies

Utah State -7 for 4 units. Utah State will have the best player on the field in QB Jordan Love. Love has 34 total touchdowns this season and has only thrown 5 interceptions. The Aggies average over 47 points a game and have been one of the best offenses to watch in football all season long. Utah State is 9-3 ATS this season, while the Mean Green are only 4-8 against the spread. Not going to overthink this one.

Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl – Fresno State Bulldogs Vs Arizona State Sun Devils

Arizona State at +199 for 2 units. Herm Edwards has done a lot better with this Sun Devil program than most expected (my hand is up). I was a hater when they hired him, but Arizona State has looked solid. Marcus McMaryion has been great for Fresno State this season, throwing 25 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Marcus is trying to lead Fresno to their first 12 win season ever. N’Keal Harry, ASU’s leading wideout, is sitting out this game as to not get injured before the draft. ASU has the Pac-12 defensive freshman of the year in linebacker Merlin Robertson. He is all over the field and is hard to miss when you’re watching the ASU defense. Eno Benjamin is a great running back for ASU. Arizona State has beat some quality opponents this season and I think that continues here.

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl – Georgia Southern Eagles Vs Eastern Michigan Eagles

Over 45 points for 3 units. I am going to be honest, I have not watched either of these teams play this season… so why not take the over? Georgia Southern’s games have seen an average of 52 points, while Eastern Michigan’s games sit at 49 points on average. Georgia Southern is on pace to break the record for taking care of the ball. They have only committed 5 turnovers all season (record is 8).

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl – Middle Tennessee Raiders Vs Appalachian State Mountaineers

App State -7 for 3 units. App allows less than 16 points a game. Middle Tennessee coach, Rich Stockstill, will be coaching his son, QB Brent Stockstill, for the final time here. App’s coach, Scott Satterfield, has left for Louisville. Middle Tennessee has the better QB, but App has the better team by far.

58-43-4 on the NFL up 35.20 units

Chiefs at -189 for 9 units. Almost a MAX PLAY. Kansas City are 6-0 at home this season. Home teams are 10-3 on Thursday nights this NFL season. Travis Kelce is on pace to break the NFL record for TE yards in a season. This game is crucial to playoff seeding as the Chiefs are just 1 game ahead of the Chargers for first place. The #1 seed has made the Super Bowl in the AFC each of the last 5 seasons (Denver in 13 and 15, Pats in the other years). Rivers is throwing the least amount of interceptions in his career this season, but he has struggled against the Chiefs in his career. He did go off on them in September, but KC’s defense looks better now.

Ekeler looks to be out for the Chargers with a concussion, while Gordon will likely play at less than 100% as he had a limited practice Tuesday. KC averages 8 more points a game than LA. KC converts 7% more on 3rd downs. LA has the better defense with Bosa back, but KC actually has more sacks on the year. Keenan Allen has been playing great recently and will most likely eat. Eric Berry (lifestory warms my heart) and Tyreek Hill (let’s not talk about his personal life..) are both questionable, but I think they both play limited snaps. KC’s homefield advantage (windy and might rain), better offense, ability to pressure Rivers, and better coaching gets them the win in this one.

57-43-4 on the NFL up 30.45 units

Lost 9 units on the NFL this weekend. The Miami Miracle made what would have been a winning day, a losing day. Figures Gronk would blow it on a 69 yard play. Pats ML was a parlay killer. I know the Pats struggle in Miami, but that play was unreal. Patrick Mahomes had a wild no look pass in their overtime win over the Ravens. The Bears and Khalil Mack shutdown the Rams offense in Chicago’s 15-6 win.

The Panthers, Broncos, Redskins and Eagles all let their season slip away (They all can still make the playoffs through their own fun scenarios, but I don’t think they will). The Steelers lost to the Raiders. Big Ben may or may not be hurt. The Colts ended Houston’s win streak. T.Y. Hilton is good. New Orleans dominated the second half 25-0 and won their game against the Buccaneers 28-14. Saquon Barkley had a career day with Odell out and the Giants smacked the Redskins.

Onto Monday Night Football:

Seahawks -3 for 5 units. Wilson throws a touchdown on 25% of his deep balls. Tyler Lockett has been amazing at getting just enough separation right before he catches the ball on deep routes. The Vikings are 0-4 against teams with a winning record this season. The Seahawks are 7-5. Also, Kirk Cousins is 0-6 on Monday Night Football.

56-41-4 on the NFL up 40.31 units

Derrick Henry got possessed by Marshawn Lynch’s 27 year old body on Thursday night. It was wild. Henry set a franchise record for rushing yards in a game with 238 yards. He did it on 17 carries!! Alabama running backs are hit or miss in the NFL.. Mark Ingram and Shaun Alexander are/were great.. T.J. Yeldon and Kenyan Drake are solid in their roles.. Eddie Lacy, Glen Coffee, and Trent Richardson among others fizzled out among others.. The jury is still out on Henry, but I hope he gets healthy and has more games like this one. Titans have won 6 of the last 7 games against the Jags. Onto today’s games..

Patriots/Saints Parlay risking 6 units to win 3.33 units. New England has lost 4 of the past 5 games in Miami, but it is December. Tom Brady has lost more games on the road to the Dolphins than any other opponent (9), but it is December. Sony Michel is only the second RB Tom Brady has had that has averaged over 4.5 YPC while getting 15+ attempts a game. Michel is a rookie. The Dolphins are 6-6 and somehow 5-1 at home. Danny Amendola revenge game. Gronk is healthy. I think the Patriots do a much better job sustaining drives in this one and win the game. Pats are 40% on 3rd down, while the Dolphins are 31% on 3rd down.

Saints play a Bucs team they lost to earlier this season. They won’t lose to Tampa twice. Michael Thomas is on pace to break Joe Horn’s single season record for the Saints (1,399 receiving yards). New Orleans has allowed less that 20 points in 4 straight games. Yes. The Saints have allowed less than 20 points in 4 straight games. Tampa is allowing the second highest completion percentage since 1970. Brees will eat.

Cowboys at -175 for 2 units. I hate betting on the Cowboys, but sometimes you gotta do it. Leighton Vander Esch gets a tackle on 18% of snaps for Dallas. Elliot has never lost to the Eagles. Dallas is 5-1 at home. Philly just hasn’t got it together this season. Golden Tate had his best game as an Eagle last week, but Amari Cooper has been great for the Cowboys. Not going to overthink this one.. Don’t suck Jason Garrett.

Rams -3 for 5 units. Todd Gurley already has the same amount of TDs as he had all of last season. He would have more touchdowns if he wasn’t such a team player and laid down at the 2 all the time. Trubisky is playing, but may not be fully healthy. Going up against Donald after a two game absence will not be easy. Rams are the best team in the NFL so far this season. Sean McVay is great. Why doesn’t every team just go get a 32 year old offensive genius for a coach? The Rams average 6.7 yards a play and score 35 points a game. The Rams commit less penalties, complete more 3rd downs, turn the ball over less, and win more. That continues today.