18-16-1 on NBA in 2017 up 7.22 units

61-53-2 on NBA in 2018 up 9.28 units

My wagers for season-long NBA bets. Makes the regular season a lot more exciting. My leans for MVP are Giannis and Embiid, but Lebron throws in a wrinkle that doesn’t make me feel good about betting against him on a new team. Trae Young is my lean for rookie of the year because he is going to put up numbers, but I like Doncic, Bagley, Bridges, and Ayton too much to bet against them.

Hornets over 34.5 wins for 4 units. 

Malik Monk over 9ppg for 2 units. 

Nets over 31.5 wins for 3 units. 

Pistons over 38.5 wins for 3 units. 

Celtics over 58.5 wins for 2 units. 

Pacers over 47.5 wins for 2 units. 

Buck over 47.5 wins for 2 units. 

Jazz over 49.5 wins for 1 unit. 

Hawks over 23.5 wins for 1 unit. 

Warriors under 63.5 wins for 1 unit. 

Knicks under 28.5 wins for 1 unit.

Thunder over 48.5 wins for 1 unit

Kings over 25.5 wins for 1 unit. 

Jazz over 49.5 wins for 1 unit. 

Hawks Over/Under 23.5 Wins – The Hawks won 24 games last season, which was last in the Eastern Conference. Atlanta has had more roster turnover than just about any other team in the league. The focal point of their offense, Dennis Schroder, is gone. Damion Lee, Mike Muscala, and Isaiah Taylor are the other notable departures. They added Justin Anderson, Vince Carter, R.J. Hunter, Alex Len, Jeremy Lin, Alex Poythress, Thomas Robinson, and 3 first round picks, Trae Young, Kevin Huerter, and Omari Spellman. Trae Young and Jeremy Lin take over the point guard position and, surprisingly, that may not be a loss on the defensive end of the floor compared to Schroder. John Collins, Bazemore, Tauren Prince, and Dewayne Dedmon will all have to step up this season if they want to win 30 games. I think this team can win 25 games or more and get another high draft pick next season. They need a guard that can play defense badly. I think they win over 23.5 games in the Eastern conference. Over 23.5 wins for 1 unit. 

Celtics O/U 58.5 Wins – The Celtics won 55 games last season, which was good for 2nd in the Eastern Conference. Shane Larkin and Greg Monroe are the notable departures. PJ Dozier and Robert Williams are the main additions, but Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving returning from injuries will make this team the deepest in the league again. Boston might have the best perimeter defense in the league this season. PJ Dozier and 7-year European pro, Brad Wanamaker will fight for the Shane Larkin minutes.

Al Horford turned it up a notch (along with basically the whole roster) in the playoffs. Horford outplayed Joel Embiid in that series. He has to be that dominant again on both ends of the floor if Boston wants to make/win the finals. I think this is a 60 win team in the weak Eastern Conference. Over 58.5 wins for 2 units. 

Nets O/U 31.5 Wins – The Nets won 28 games last season. Their notable departures are Quincy Acy, Jeremy Lin, Mozgov, Jahlil Okafor, and Nik Stauskas. They added Ed Davis, Jared Dudley, Kenneth Faried, Treveon Graham, Shabazz Napier, and some project draft picks. A lot of the players they added are solid rotation players. DeMarre Carroll, Allen Crabbe, Spencer Dinwiddie, D’Angelo Russell, Joe Harris, Caris LeVert, Jarrett Allen, Joe Harris, and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson fill out the rest of this roster. Before I started researching this team, I thought the 31 number was about accurate; however, I really like the pieces they have added to a slightly above average Eastern Conference core.

I don’t know if the Brooklyn front office really wants them to improve as they have their own draft pick for the first time in 6 years… but I think they win about 35 games (or more). A starting lineup of Russell, Crabbe, Carroll, Hollis-Jefferson, and Allen is actually pretty decent in the East. Add in Joe Harris shooting 42% from 3, Dinwiddie’s 2nd in the league assist/turnover ratio, Ed Davis’s league-leading bench rebounds, Caris LeVert’s athleticism, Jared Dudley’s corner 3s, and Treveon Graham’s 43.8% 3-point shooting…. Maybe I like this team more than I should, but it is hard for me to see them winning less than 30 games. Over 31.5 wins for 3 units. 

Hornets O/U 35.5 Wins – The Hornets won 36 games last season. Bismack Biyombo, Miles Bridges, Devonte’ Graham, and Tony Parker are the main additions. Michael Carter-Williams, Treveon Graham, and Dwight Howard are the main departures. James Borrego is the new head coach for the Hornets. He has the team practicing with a 12 second shot clock, which makes Charlotte fans a lot more happy than Dwight Howard’s 20 second post-ups. When Dwight and Kemba were on the floor together, the Hornets outscored their opponents by 2.4 points per 100 possessions. Not terrible, but when Kemba played without Dwight on the floor (almost 200 minutes) the Hornets outscored their opponents by almost 9 points per 100 possessions. That is the Warriors Curry-Klay-Andre-Durant-Green kinda good. I think most people see losing Dwight’s 16.6/12.5 as bad for the Hornets, but would you rather have Kemba shooting 3s or Dwight post-ups?

Also, Michael Carter-Williams was the worst backup point guard in the league last season. Steve Clifford strangely would not play Malik Monk. Over Monk’s final 5 games last season (the only time he got more than 20 minutes consistently), he scored 20.4 points a game on 41.3% from deep, with 4 assists a game, a steal a game, and a block a game. He didn’t miss a free throw either. Miles Bridges has looked solid in pre-season. A healthy Cody Zeller will actually help this team (not a joke) because he sets screens unlike that Dwight guy. Hornets over 34.5 wins for 4 units. 

Bulls O/U 29.5 Wins – This Bulls team won 27 games last season. Their notable departures are Jerian Grant, Sean Kilpatrick, and Noah Vonleh. Not exactly world-beaters. Their notable additions are Wendell Carter Jr, Chandler Hutchinson, and Jabari Parker. Chicago’s starting lineup will most likely be Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine, Robin Lopez, Jabari Parker, and Lauri (the only 3-point shooter on this team) Markkanen. Justin Holiday, Carter Jr, and Bobby Portis will be their key subs. Chicago knows that the league is a 3-point league now so I guess they are trying to zag and dominate the front court.. Hell they even have Omer Asik on their team. Hoiberg never should have left Iowa State in my opinion. Maybe Dunn and LaVine take a big leap forward, but I am not going to bet on that. The Bulls had to pay the former 2x dunk champion LaVine when the Kings offered him 80 million to add some excitement to this team. I think 29.5 wins is about right so I am staying away from betting Chicago’s win total this season.

Cavaliers O/U 30.5 Wins – The Cavs won 50 games last season but now Jose Calderon, Jeff Green, AND Kendrick Perkins are no longer on the team. Also, Lebron left for LA. JR Smith might shoot 100 shirtless shots a game and I am pumped for it. Jr Smith got a Supreme tattoo on the back of his right calf, and the NBA said they will fine him every game he does not cover it up.. Seems like the NBA is giving the brand Supreme more coverage than if they didn’t say anything..

Cedi Osman, Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, Rodney Hood, and George Hill/Collin Sexton will most likely be Cleveland’s starting 5. Jordan Clarkson, Larry Nance Jr, Kyle Korver, and JR Smith will be the key subs. Kevin Love will try to recapture his 23 and 13 Timberwolves days. Teams in the Eastern Conference are going to love beating up on the Cavs this season, much like teams did to the Bulls in 1999 when that MJ guy left. It is hard for me to get a read on this team, so I will just trust Vegas and say they go 30.5 and 51.5 on the season. No play here.

Mavericks O/U 34.5 Wins – Mavericks had 24 wins last season. Seth Curry, Yogi Ferrell, Doug McDermott, and Nerlens Noel are the key departures. Giannis Antetokounmpo’s little brother, Jalen Brunson, Luka Doncic, Devin Harris, and DeAndre Jordan are the notable additions. The Mavs finally got DeAndre Jordan after the Clippers “stole” him back. It is ironic that JJ Redick, Blake Griffin, and Chris Paul all wanted Jordan back, and then they all left LA before him. The Kings took Yogi Ferrell from the Mavs. I am buying stock in Doncic. If I had to put my life on one player in this draft it would be him.

Dallas should start Doncic, Dennis Smith Jr, Harrison Barnes, Dirk Nowitzki, and DeAndre Jordan. Wesley Matthews should get traded for a draft pick or a better piece. I could see this Mavericks team winning anywhere from 26 to 36 games. Dorian Finney-Smith and Dwight Powell should both improve this season. My lean is under 34.5 games, but I love Dennis Smith Jr, Dirk, and Doncic too much to bet it.

Nuggets O/U 47.5 Wins – Nuggets won 46 games last season. Michael Porter Jr and Isaiah Thomas are the main additions for Denver (along with a bunch rookies). Wilson Chandler, Kenneth Faried, and Devin Harris are the key departures. Oh, Richard Jefferson and his sick RJ tattoo are gone too. Nuggets locked up Nikola Jokic and Will Barton this off-season. Gary Harris and Paul Millsap were already locked into big contracts. Denver was 27th in defense after the All-Star break, which is why they fell out of the playoffs. The Nuggets have a balanced starting lineup with a solid offense, but they are going to need to play a lot better on defense if they want to win more than 47 games and make the playoffs. Their starting lineup will most likely be Gary Harris, Jamal Murray, Will Barton, Paul Millsap, and The Joker. Trey Lyles, Mason Plumlee, and Isaiah Thomas are the solid subs.

I love watching Nikola play. Jokic has the fastest triple-double in NBA history and became the only center besides Wilt Chamberlain with more than 7 triple-doubles. Jokic at one point last season had 9 triple-doubles and only 8 dunks. Dirk might dunk the ball more than him… but prolly not. I see this team winning around 47 games again, so I am not making a bet on their over/under.

Pistons O/U 38.5 Wins – Detroit won 39 games and were 4 games out of the playoffs in the East. Jose Calderon, Zaza Pachulia, and Glenn Robinson III are the key off-season additions. James Ennis, Jameer Nelson, and Anthony Tolliver are the key losses. Blake Griffin was a massive trade deadline acquisition for Detroit last season. I think Dwane Casey is an upgrade over Van Gundy. Griffin and Reggie Jackson are healthy, which is huge for Detroit. The Pistons were 12-25 without Reggie last season and 27-18 with him on the floor. The starting lineup for the Pistons is solid with Jackson, Reggie Bullock, Stanley Johnson, Blake Griffin, and Andre Drummond. They lack depth as their best bench players are Ish Smith, Luke Kennard, and Glenn Robinson III. If they can stay healthy, they will cover this 38.5 wins easy. Over 38.5 wins for 3 units. 

Warriors O/U 63.5 Wins – Warriors won 58 games last season. DeMarcus Cousins, Jonas Jerebko, Jacob Evans, and Damion Lee are the key additions for Golden State. I mean what more needs to be said about this team? They have won 3 championships in 4 years. The one they lost could have been rigged, not saying it was… but Lebron getting a title for the Land is a great story for Adam Silver and the NBA. Steph and KD mesh better than two MVPs should. Klay is one of the silkiest shooters the league has ever seen. Draymond Green is a fantastic defender and maybe better rebounder. I think this team mails it in the regular season a little and wins “only” 60 games. Warriors under 63.5 wins for 1 unit. 

Rockets O/U 55.5 Wins – The Rockets won 65 games last season. Carmelo, Marquese Chriss, James Ennis, Brandon Knight and Michael Carter-Williams are the key additions. They lose Ryan Anderson, Trevor Ariza, Tarik Black, Luc Mbah a Moute, and Joe Johnson. Anderson, Johnson, and Ariza were valuable 3 point shooters that could spread the floor for Harden. Ariza and Mbah a Moute were great defenders last season as well. Houston will still score, but their defense may take a hit this season. They still have one of the best starting lineups in the league with Chris Paul, Harden, Eric Gordon, PJ Tucker, and Clint Capela. Their only solid bench players are now Carmelo, Gerald Green, and James Ennis. 55 wins sounds about right, but if Harden or CP3 gets injured, this number will go under. I am staying away.

Pacers O/U 47.5 Wins – The Pacers won 48 games last season. They lose the talents of Trevor Booker, Al Jefferson, Lance Stephenson, Alex Poythress, and Glenn Robinson III. They bring in Tyreke Evans, Aaron Holiday, Doug McDermott, and Kyle O’ Quinn. Pacers easily hit the over on regular season wins. Few saw the explosion that was Oladipo coming. He filled in so well for Paul George, Pacers fans hardly missed Paul. They add Tyreke Evans, who is the frontrunner for 6th man of the year. Evans had 19.4/5.1/5.2 numbers last season. Indiana would be my choice to lock up the 2 seed in the East behind the Celtics. Darren Collison led the NBA in 3-point accuaracy last season (46.8%). Bojan can shoot from deep and guard Lebron. Myles Turner is a beast that Indiana better pay sooner than later. Throw in Thaddeus Young, Sabonis, and Cory Joseph for some added experience and I like this Pacers team a lot. Pacers over 47.5 wins for 2 units. 

Clippers O/U 36.5 Wins – The Clippers won 42 games last season. Their key additions are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Marcin Gortat, Luc Mbah a Moute, and Mike Scott. They lose Austin Rivers, Sam Dekker, and DeAndre Jordan. Lob City is no more. The Clippers were the best team in LA for a few years, but the arrival of Lebron has changed that. I like Milos Teodosic, Gilgeous-Alexander, and Pat Beverly.. but I don’t know if any of them are true starts at point guard in today’s NBA. Avery Bradley and Tobias Harris played well last season after the trade. Lou Williams is still awesome. Gallinari might be good if he can ever stay healthy. Gortat is a huge downgrade from DeAndre Jordan obviously. Doc Rivers may be on his way out the door, even though he did a fine job coaching last season with all the roster turnover. This is a transition year for the Clippers. I think this number is about right, will the Clippers tank for a better pick or push for the playoffs?

Lakers O/U 48.5 Wins – The Lakers won 35 games last season, but now they have Lebron. Besides the King, the Lakers add Michael Beasley, Mortiz Wagner, JaVale McGee, Rajon Rondo, and Lance Stephenson. LA’s key departures are Luol Deng, Brooke Lopez, Channing Frye, Julius Randle, and Isaiah Thomas. They don’t lose much defense.. Only 3 teams in the West won more than 48 games last season. Ball, Kuzma, Ingram, and KCP will be fun to watch beside one of the best players of all time. Rondo and Ball may just pass the ball back and forth if they are both on the perimeter like two centerbacks in soccer. Lance and Lebron on the same team is funny. JaVale McGee is always entertaining. This team has a lot of watchability. I think this number is about right. The Lakers will be better next year. A lot of their players have 1 year left on their contract, so the Lakers will be big free agent players again next summer. I would lean towards betting the under, but I don’t bet against Lebron in the regular season.

Grizzlies O/U 34.5 Wins – The Grizzlies won 22 games last season. Their key additions are Kyle Anderson, Omri Casspi, Jaren Jackson Jr, Shelvin Mack, and Garrett Temple. They lose Mario Chalmers, Tyreke Evans, and Ben McLemore. Memphis has 3 max contract players in Chandler Parsons, Marc Gasol, and Mike Conley. If they can stay healthy, they could hit this over, but they have all had injury problems over the past few seasons. Chandler Parsons is more popular for his social media antics than his basketball actions over the past few years. Kyle Anderson is actually a a solid addition for this team considering their cap restrictions. I am a big Tyreke Evans fan so losing him hurts. Jaren Jackson Jr has endless potential, but I don’t know how much he will produce in his rookie season. Garrett Temple, JaMychal Green, and Shelvin Mack add veteran experience, but don’t move the needle towards the playoffs all that much. I think 35 wins is about right for this team, but injuries could push the under. I am staying away. J.B. Bickerstaff is a solid coach and this team will make the playoffs if everything goes well.. it rarely does.

Heat O/U 42.5 Wins – The Heat won 44 games last season. Miami had close to the least roster turnover in the NBA from last season. Jimmy Butler, if he is traded to Miami, would be the only key addition. Dwyane Wade’s farewell tour is the story of this Heat season. Hassan Whiteside is the key to the Heat’s season. Hassan got outplayed by Joel Embiid in the first round of the playoffs last season. He was so overmatched he couldn’t even see the court and averaged less than 17 minutes a game in that series. I love Hassan’s snapchat, but he needs to be better in big moments if the Heat want to win a playoff series. Justise Winslow and Wayne Ellington got new contracts. James Johnson is a man amongst boys. Josh Richardson and Tyler Johnson are solid. Kelly Olynyk is there to stretch the floor. I would lean towards the over in the weak East, but I don’t feel great about it. This team is a Dragic or Whiteside injury away from the under hitting. I am staying away.

Bucks O/U 47.5 Wins – Bucks won 44 games last season. They add Pat Connaughton, Donte DiVincenzo, Tim Frazier, Ersan Ilyasova, and Brook Lopez. They lose Brandon Jennings, Shabazz, Jabari Parker, Jason Terry, and Marshall Plumlee. Kris Middleton being healthy to start the season is the big addition for Milwaukee. Mike Budenholzer is a way better coach than the hair (Joe Prunty) and lack of hair (Jason Kidd) they had last season. Giannis would be my bet to win the MVP this season. This team will be a top 3 team in the East. Eric Bledsoe is one of the better point guards in the East. Bledsoe and Middleton are in prove-it contract years. They will both show out. Malcolm Brogdon is a do-everything player. Tony Snell will make 3s again with better coaching. John Henson and Brook Lopez will hold down the paint with Giannis. This team will win 50 games. Over 47.5 wins for 2 units. 

Timberwolves O/U 41.5 Wins – This team won 47 games last season. Minnesota adds Keita Bates-Diop, Luol Deng, and Anthony Tolliver. The Wolves still have Jimmy Butler as of writing this, but their only key departure is Jamaal Crawford. KAT got the super-max contract, which is reported to be worth around 180 million dollars. Jimmy Butler has requested a trade, then he works the first stringers with the bench players, and just proves he has bigger balls than anybody else in Minnesota. Butler was rumored to have said things like “Oh, you ain’t trading me? I’ll terrorize you in practice and humiliate you on tv till you do.” Jimmy ain’t playing. The Timberwolves don’t have a terrible starting lineup with or without Butler, but they still lack 3-point shooting. They made the least 3s in the NBA last season. Jeff Teague can’t make solid entry passes consistently. Wiggins can’t shoot from deep consistently. KAT doesn’t seem to want “it” like Jimmy wants him too. This team has talent, but spacing and chemistry could be a problem. I am staying away from the total as a lot is up in the air with Butler.

Pelicans O/U 45.5 Wins – New Orleans had 48 wins last season. The Pelicans lose DeMarcus Cousins, Jordan Crawford, Rajon Rondo, DeAndre Liggins, and the 2nd pick in the 2004 draft, Emeka Okafor. They add Jahlil Okafor, Elfrid Payton, and Julius Randle. My problem with the Pelicans is similar to my problem with Minnesota, who is going to space the floor and make some 3s (Mirotic and Moore I guess). Anthony Davis is one of the MVP favorites and averaged 28/11 last season. He is a beast. The Pelicans have to be a top 10 defense this season if they want to win a playoff series again. Elfrid Payton is taking over for Rajon. Ian Clark and Solomon Hill need to step up if they want to justify their contracts, Hill’s is a gaudy 12 million a year. Julius Randle is not DeMarcus Cousins, but he could be a nice complement to Davis. E’Twaun Moore was wet from deep last season and will try to keep it up. I think they win just over this number if AD stays healthy, but if he gets hurt, it goes under. That makes this a stay away for me.

Knicks O/U 28.5 Wins – New York won 26 games last season. The Knicks have added Mario Herzonja, Kevin Knox, Mitchell Robinson, and Noah Vonleh. They lose some veterans in Michael Beasley, Jarret Jack, Joakim Noah, and Kyle O’Quinn. Kristaps Porzingis won’t be healthy to start the season. David Fizdale, who was fired by Memphis last season, is the new coach in New York. Fizdale should make the defense a little better. The Knicks fell in love with midrange jumpers last season, they need to inject some “Morey Ball” into their offense this season. Frank Ntilikina needs to step up this season. His shooting and dribble drives both need to be a lot better. Frank had the worst true shooting percentage in the NBA last season. Frank, Courtney Lee, Tim Hardaway Jr, Kevin Knox, and Kanter will most likely be their starting lineup. The Knicks seem to be missing players that are solid on both sides of the ball. Knicks tank this season and get another lottery pick. Under 28.5 wins for 1 unit. 

Thunder O/U 48.5 Wins – Oklahoma City won 48 games last season. They add Hamidou Diallo, Nerleans Noel, and Dennis Schroder. They lose Carmelo, Corey Brewer (who was fun to watch on the fastbreak with Russ), long time vet Nick Collison, PJ Dozier, Dakari Johnson, and Kyle Singler. Keeping Paul George was the big offseason news for the Thunder. A healthy Andre Roberson and no Carmelo will help the defense this season. Steven Adams will be able to rest a little more with Noel around. Dennis Schroder is the best backup point guard in the league. Schroder averaged over 19 points and 6 assists last season. OKC improved their depth and their defense should be better this season. Over 48.5 wins for 1 unit. 

Magic O/U 30.5 Wins – Orlando won 25 games last season. Their key additions are Mohamed Bamba, Jerian Grant, Timofey Mozqov, and a bunch of other rookies. They lose Arron Afflalo, Bismack Biyombo, Mario Hezonja, Shelvin Mack, and Marreese Speights. Aaron Gordon took a step forward last season and seems like he could be a top 25 NBA player if he keeps it up. Jerian Grant will take over the point guard role for the Magic. Jonathon Simmons is worth a few wins on the season. Terrence Ross, Jonathon Isaac, and Evan Fournier are alright. Coach Clifford will be able to get a lot out of Vucevic. I think this over/under number is about right. The locker room lacked a lot of chemistry last season, I think they play together a little more this season. Jonathon Isaac seems to be pushed to the side with the Bamba draft pick, but they are both talented. Isaac telling his teammates he was preaching and none of them showing up sums up their chemistry issues last season. No play on this one, don’t think they are a 30 win team, but the East is just bad enough that that is possible.

76ers O/U 54.5 Wins – Philly won 52 games last season. They have added Wilson Chandler, Mike Muscala, Zhaire Smith, and Landry Shamet. They lose Justin Anderson, Marco Belinelli, Richaun Holmes, and Ersan Ilyasova. J.J. Redick is still there to shoot, but Ersan and Marco added some nice 3-point shooting during the second half of Philly’s season. Elton Brand is the new GM. 76ers will be one of the best defensive teams in the league (again) with their length at every position. Markelle Fultz should add some talent and (even more) watchability for the 76ers. If Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid stay healthy this over hits, but I would not bet on that. Ben Simmons averaged 14/9/9 after the all-star break last season, but I am staying away from this over/under. This team will be fun to watch.

Suns O/U 29.5 Wins – Phoenix had the worst record in the league last season with 21 wins. They won the lottery and had one of the biggest roster turnovers in the league from last season. They add Ryan Anderson, Trevor Ariza, Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, Jamaal Crawford, and Richaun Holmes. They lose Marquese Chriss, Jared Dudley, Bradon Knight, Alex Len, Elfrid Payton, Tyler Ulis, and Alan Williams. This team is loaded with young talent with Devin Booker, TJ Warren, Josh Jackson, Mikal Bridges, and Ayton. Phoenix needs to trade a wing. I like Ariza and Mikal Bridges a lot, but they can’t both play heavy minutes with TJ Warren there too. Tyson Chandler and Dragan Bender will play the big alongside Ayton. The Suns lack of point guard hurts them and makes me lean towards the under. How did this team go from having Dragic, Isaiah Thomas, and Eric Bledsoe to having no point guard? If they trade a wing for a point guard they could win 30 games or more, I am staying away.

Trail Blazers O/U 42.5 Wins – Portland won 49 games last season. They add Seth Curry, Anfernee Simons, and Nik Stauskas. They lose Pat Connaughton, Ed Davis, and Shabazz Napier. This team is similar to last year’s team as Lillard and McCollum are the focal points again. Nurkic is a force down low, but does not have a great backup. Lillard could be traded to the Lakers mid-season. I think 42 wins is about right so I am staying away from this one as well.

Kings O/U 25.5 Wins – The Kings won 27 games last season. They add Marvin Bagley, Yogi Ferrell, and Ben McLemore. They lose Vince Carter and Garrett Temple. The Kings were last in scoring last season, their additions, along with not running the offense through Zach Randolph, should help their scoring a little. Harry Giles has looked great over the past few months. Bogdan Bogdanovic and Buddy Hield will drain some 3s. Justin Jackson and De’Aaron Fox will be better this season. I like the young talent on this team. I think this team wins over this number, but stays in the lottery. Over 25.5 wins for 1 unit. 

Raptors O/U 55.5 Wins – Toronto won 59 games last season and was first in the East. They made a huge splash this offseason by adding Kwahi Leonard. They also added Greg Monroe and Danny Green. They lost DeMar DeRozan and Jakob Poltl. Dwane Casey was fired after the Raptors were top 5 in both offense and defense last season. Leonard raises their ceiling, but will he be healthy? Raptors will keep shooting the 3 like they did last season as their new coach, Nick Nurse, loves the 3-ball. Raptors still have the solid bench and a good starting lineup in the East. This number is about right. I am staying away as the health of Leonard is still a little unknown.

Spurs O/U 43.5 Wins – San Antonio won 47 games last season. The Spurs have acquired Marco Belinelli, Lonnie Walker, Dante Cunningham, Jakob Poltl, Quincy Poindexter, and DeMar DeRozan. They lost Kyle Anderson, Manu Ginobili, Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, and Tony Parker. Patty Mills and Belinelli are the only two players that are on the roster and that won the championship 4 years ago, now that Manu and Tony Parker are gone. Dejounte Murray and Lonnie Walker are hurt and will be out an extended period of time. San Antonio’s defense will most likely take a hit this season without Danny Green, Leonard, and Kyle Anderson (and Murray). Derrick White will have to be the starting point guard now that Murray is out for the season. DeRozan, Rudy Gay, Aldridge, and Gasol will be able to score. Popovich is still a great coach. I would lean towards the under, but I am not going to bet against the Spurs in the regular season. No play here.

Jazz O/U 49.5 Wins – The Jazz won 48 games last season. They have added Grayson Allen. They lost Jonas Jerebko. Not a lot of roster turnover here. Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert are both great. Derrick Favors, Dante Exum, and Raul Neto were all given contracts this off-season. Mitchell will be expected to shoulder a larger load this season. The Jazz were 31-15 when Mitchell scored 20 points or more. Joe Ingles and Rodney Hood are gone, which hurts the Jazz’s shooting numbers from deep. Royce O’Neale and Jae Crowder will be relied on to pick up the slack and spread the floor. If Gobert can stay healthy and Mitchell keeps improving, the Jazz will win 50 games or more. Jazz over 49.5 wins for 1 unit. 

Wizards O/U 45.5 Wins – Washington won 43 games last season. They lost Tim Frazier, Marcin Gortat, Ty Lawson, Mike Scott, and Ramon Sessions. Their key additions are Troy Brown, Jeff Green, Dwight Howard, and Austin Rivers. The Wizards have added more talent than they lost, but will they mesh well? Otto Porter Jr is an athletic defender with a great 3-point shot. I don’t think Scott Brooks can handle all these personalities, which leads me to betting the under. I think this team has way too much talent in the East to not win over this total though, so I am staying away from this one. No play here.

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